Bear Digest

Analytics Sites Begin Catching on to Bears' Surge Forward

Even Caleb Williams is viewed as improving by Pro Football Focus after weeks when he has been regarded as one of the league's worst passers.

Gene Chamberlain

Coleman Shelton hasn't been noticed much this season except on some pass blocking breakdowns but ESPN has him highly graded.
Coleman Shelton hasn't been noticed much this season except on some pass blocking breakdowns but ESPN has him highly graded. / Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images
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Skeptics seem unswayed by the numbers.

The competitive level of weaker teams they faced is always pointed out.

However, the Bears are suddenly becoming darlings of the analytics sect. In the past, they often couldn't be found anywhere near the top in many of the metrics used beyond traditional statistics to measure player effectiveness.

All along Caleb Williams has been among the lowest graded quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus but Sunday marked a total departure from the past as he was the highest graded Bears player by PFF with an 87.9 grade, almost 10 points higher than the next highest graded Bears offensive player, Darnell Wright. In the past, Williams hasn't even been ranked among the top 15 rookies in the league this season by PFF, but they saw something Sunday.

"He also earned new career bests, with four passing touchdowns and an incredible 95.8% adjusted completion rate," Gordon Wasserman wrote for PFF.

Defensive Dominance

All along, Bears defensive players have been rated high in analytics and they're cementing those positions.

Jaylon Johnson's rise to No. 1 cornerback in Pro Football Focus' grading system last year sounded the rise and Johnson still remains near the top among cornerbacks, now No. 3 overall in PFF grade. It's not surprising when he has a 23.4 passer rating against when targeted, according to Stathead/Pro Football Reference. It's even lower by Next Gen Stats calculations at a phenomenal 20.8.

Johnson's passer rating against has gone down each season he's been in the league, says Stathead. And he is allowing only 5.9 yards per target.

The surprise so far in the secondary hasn't been Johnson but is safety Kevin Byard. At least he is a surprise to some. After a Sunday when he had the highest Bears PFF defensive grade (85.3), he is graded third best safety in the league, just behind both Green Bay safeties, rookie Evan Williams and Xavier McKinney. Byard's 90.0 season grade is extremely high. He's graded fifth in pass coverage.

Considering CBS' Jordan Dijani labeled Byard's signing the worst one in all of free agency, it might surprise some to see the 31-year-old former Titans and Eagles safety so high. But he had the mid-season trade last year to the Eagles and no preparation time with their scheme. He fit in better with the Bears' scheme and with an entire offseason of preparation

Defensive side analytic success isn't limited to pass coverage. The pass rush is well represented with four defensive linemen in the top 20 at their positions and the team at 54% pass rush win rate, second best in the league behind Denver by 1%.

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Despite being double-teamed, Montez Sweat has broken into the top 20 for edge rushers in ESPN's pass rush win rate at 17% for edge defenders, tied for 18th best. Darrell Taylor remains in the top 10 for edge rushers, seventh at 25%.

Both interior linemen are in the top 10, as well. Gervon Dexter is eighth (14%) and Andrew Billings sixth (15%).

The Offensive Line?

Perhaps more surprising than any of the defensive rankings are where Bears offensive linemen rank in blocking.

Center Coleman Shelton rarely gets mentioned for much beyond snapping the ball but he is No. 10 in the league now in ESPN's pass block win rate among interior offensive linemen (96%). This includes guards and centers. Coleman is coming off a strong game in which he led the Bears offensive line in pass blocking grade against Jacksonville.

Guard Matt Pryor broke into the top 20 at 19th for pass block win rate among interior offensive linemen (95%).

The two Bears tackles haven't impressed as pass blockers but both are in the top 10 in run block win rate. Braxton Jones is fifth at 81% and Darnell Wright seventh at 81%.

The Bears as a team are seventh in pass block win rate and second at run block win rate.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.