Bear Digest

Are Packers Most Likely Team to Be Bumped By a Bears Playoff Run?

Analysis: SI.com's Conor Orr believes the Bears will be among the playoff teams and will keep Dallas out of the postseason but there are plenty of other candidates for Chicago to bump.

Gene Chamberlain

Tyrique Stevenson jars the ball out of Jordan Love's hands in last season's finale. Could it be the Bears keeping the Packers out of the playoffs this time?
Tyrique Stevenson jars the ball out of Jordan Love's hands in last season's finale. Could it be the Bears keeping the Packers out of the playoffs this time? / Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin /
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Every time a team rises to playoff status, one falls back into the mediocre glob of 18 non-playoff teams.

How long they remain in this pile of misery depends on changes they undergo attempting to escape.

Conor Orr of SI.com is predicting six new playoff teams for 2024. One in, one goes out. Six in, and six must come out.

One of the teams Orr predicts will make the climb to playoff status is the Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams is part of the reason.

"His early dealings with the organization have been overwhelmingly positive, the Bears upgraded the offense and Shane Waldron is a really skilled designer of offenses," Orr wrote, adding that the schedule is easy.

The schedule is third-easiest based on opposing winning percentage from last year but the start of it is especially easy compared to the end, which would come after Williams gains needed experience.

Orr also sees the New Orleans Saints as a new NFC playoff team.

With these two coming into the playoffs, two teams must come out. Orr sees the Dallas Cowboys as the team removed by the Bears' arrival as playoff entries.

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"They have a lame-duck coach, a taxed staff on uncertain footing and a decaying foundation on which to support a great quarterback, wide receiver and pass rusher," Orr wrote of Dallas. "That worries me."

One other parting shot for Jerry's boys from Orr: "Dallas isn’t markedly better than the Giants anymore."

That's fine, but we're talking about the Bears here and not the Giants and the Bears apparently are better than both, according to Orr.

There's a problem with Orr's assessment. He is assuming the 49ers, Eagles, Rams, Packers and Lions are all going to be in the postseason again. He even says he can't imagine those teams not making it.

Guess again.

Every year there are teams people look at and say are playoff locks. And every year there are some of those teams who don't make it.

In fact, in each of the three seasons there have been 17 games on the schedule, there have been three and not two new playoff teams in the NFC.

Injuries occur to key players, other teams rise and suddenly those playoff locks are watching in mid-January.

The Cowboys do appear to be a good choice for teams the Bears could replace in that NFC cluster.

Here's a more complete look at which teams the Bears really could replace, ranked in order.

1. Dallas Cowboys

The main reason is Dallas lost its defensive coordinator and he propped up the team with his scheme and great experience at running it. The Cowboys replaced Dan Quinn with Mike Zimmer. While Zimmer knows defense, his strength isn't in wizardry. It's running a basic scheme with some blitzing in the A-gap mixed into it. Quinn had people guessing. They'll no longer be strong enough on defense to prop up an offense impressive annually until it really matters.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield doesn't instill great confidence. They're still coached by a defensive mind and not one who knows offense, but their defensive core is aging.

Tampa Bay doesn't appear good enough to win a wild card battle and only made the playoffs last year because they were in the weak, drifting NFC South.

They won't benefit from this type of situation in 2024 and will need to prove their worth on their own.

3. Green Bay Packers

The Bears beat Detroit once and should have won the first matchup last year, but the roster the Lions have is loaded and ready to win now.

However, Green Bay doesn't belong with the NFC elite yet. Sure, they gave the 49ers a scare in the playoffs but didn't succeed in a second straight upset. They beat Dallas, which has deficiencies and just loves losing in the playoffs.

Let's examine that super talented Packers team that destroyed the league and is said to be the sure challenger to the Lions in the NFC North.

They were two games below .500 and tied in the fourth quarter with the Carolina Panthers, of all people, after blowing a 30-16 fourth-quarter lead. How is Jordan Love and his wunderkind team looking at that point last year?

Then they did what they had to do and got Anders Carlson to the far reaches of his field goal range—32 yards—and he made the winning kick with 19 seconds remaining.

The next week they destroyed the Vikings, who were trying to use inexperienced Jaren Hall at starting quarterback after the Bears defense had embarrassed the other replacement for injured Kirk Cousins, Josh Dobbs. Hall had thrown 10 NFL passes to that point and hadn't played in six weeks. When it didn't work out, they went to longtime NFL fourth-stringer Nick Mullens.

Finally, the end of that spectacular Green Bay regular season came at home against the Bears and Justin Fields. The Bears had no  chance at a playoff spot. Their incentive was trying to stop the Packers from making it. Sorry, that doesn't cut it in the NFL, and especially at season's end against a team fighting for its playoff life.

Toss in the fact the Bears didn't have the league's No. 1 cornerback (according to PFF), Jaylon Johnson, due to injury, No. 2 receiver Darnell Mooney was out, the starting center and his backup were out. The Packers made good use of their advantages against an unmotivated group in Justin Fields' final games to win 17-9, made the playoffs and then won a game.

And now Green Bay is the greatest young team to come along since Detroit. Forgive the skepticism.

It needs to be proven all over and if the Bears are making the playoffs, then the next most likely team to be kept out of them after Dallas and Tampa Bay is Green Bay.

4. Philadelphia Eagles

That late Eagles collapse might have been the result of more than traditional post-Super Bowl loser glum. Roster rot may have hit.

More importantly, they haven't been the same on defense since their coordinator left to coach the Cardinals. Even with Jalen Carter added at defensive tackle, they looked like a defense in a deteriorated state over the second half of last season.

5. L.A. Rams

Aaron Donald is now gone, so their defense must stand on its own. Without him, the fifth-ranked defense seems a great deal less formidable. Matthew Stafford is another year older.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.