Bear Digest

Bears' Improvement Is a Matter of Opinion Over Analytics

Analysis: The Bears have one positive assessment in their attempt to improve and another one not so much, but the matter becomes more opinion than it is an analytical equation.

Gene Chamberlain

Tight end Gerald Everett (14) and wide receiver Rome Odunze (15) are two of the bigger Bears improvements but is it all enough to bolster them beyond where they were last year?
Tight end Gerald Everett (14) and wide receiver Rome Odunze (15) are two of the bigger Bears improvements but is it all enough to bolster them beyond where they were last year? / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The debate rages over how much the Bears improved their chances of winning the NFC North and competing for the Super Bowl.

They're different, there is no doubt. How much better they are as a team overall depends on who you're asking.

ESPN's analytics writer Seth Walder says their look might be different but their overall improvement is barely noticeable.

Sports Illustrated sees something different.

Citing ESPN's football power index, Walder has the Bears as only the 19th best team this year and they're well behind Green Bay (10th) and Detroit (4th) in their own division.

According to their calculations, the Bears have a 41.6% chance at the playoffs, 13.2% chance to win the NFC North, 2.3% chance to win the NFC championship and 1.1% chance at winning the Super Bowl.

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Their season win projection is 8.6 to 8.4%. In other words, they're about as close to .500 as a team can get in a 17-game schedule.

While this is better than 7-10 like in 2023, it's barely a movement off their last-place NFC North finish.

Sports Illustrated's assessment is a panel discussion of the league's most improved teams and it's easy to assume it's the Bears because not only did one panelist say they are, but another who named a different team did it only because those involved apparently weren't allowed to name the Bears twice.

The discussion between Albert Breer, ConorOrr, Gilberto Manzano and Matt Verderame has Breer naming the Cardinals as most improved, Manzano saying Washington, Orr saying the Giants and Verderame labeling the Bears No. 1 most improved. However, Breer mentions liking what the Bears did and Orr flat out says he would have named the Bears most improvement but changed because Verderame already named them and, after all, it's a panel discussion. What kind of discussion would it be if everyone named the same team?

"If you believe Caleb Williams is going to be a star either immediately or in the near future, Chicago is the choice," Verderame wrote, before detailing all of their other offensive changes like Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, D'Andre Swift and Gerald Everett.

"Should Williams realize  his potential, Chicago could challenge for a playoff spot and potentially more in the NFC," Verderame concludes.

All is a matter of opinion and ESPN can fix all the decimal points to what is supposedly an analytical approach to how much the Bears improved.

Maybe the situation is best summed up by what people who have money on it believe. SI's Iain MacMillan wrote a story of teams with the best odds for winning the NFC based on DraftKings sportsbook.

The Bears are No. 7 at +1400, which puts them right in playoff range. That's a level no one would have put them at a year ago at this time. They're one spot ahead of the Rams (+1600), but still behind the Packers and Lions in their own division.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.