NFL Picks Week 6: Chalk a Poor Week Up to the Upsets

Week 5 proved a debacle ATS after the pleasures of Week 4, and proved the odds makers now have a firm grasp on the situation

A long time ago before the internet ruined the world, a betting "expert" told me never to pick a team to cover points unless you think the team is going to win the game.

I'm not sure where this guy is now but he's probably a pauper if he stuck to his own advice.

There were 14 games played last week and picking eight of the winners right straight up looked good enough considering some of the upsets involved.

Miami beating San Francisco? Come on. Give me a break. The Dolphins haven't had a win that big since Dan Marino was quarterback, or at least since the pet detective rescued their mascot.

The Raiders over the Chiefs in Arrowhead? Chuckie hasn't been that ferocious looking since about his sixth or seventh movie.

What the expert should have said was don't bet on any game unless you're sure it's fixed.

This all explains how you can go 8-6 straight up but then 2-12 against the point spread.

A 10-4-1 record two weeks ago against the spread collapsed into a 2-12 nightmare last week.

We'll look to rebound ATS as the trends fester and COVID-19 plays havoc with the schedule.

Top Trends for Week 6

• It's been over the total in seven of last eight Titans home games. 

• New England has covered five straight times at home against Denver.

• It's been over in five over Miami's last six home games.

• It's been under the total in Kansas City's last five road games and in four of Buffalo's last five at home with the Chiefs.

• Dallas is 14-2 in its last 16 at home against Arizona

• The Giants have covered in their last five road games.

• Indianapolis has won eight of its last nine at home against Cincinnati

• It's been under the total in five of the Bengals' last six with Indianapolis.

• It's been under the total in eight of Philadelphia's last nine home games 
• It's been over the total if five of Cleveland's last six.

Last week:

8-6 straight up, 2-12 vs the spread

Overall:

52-25 straight up, 35-41-1 vs. the spread

The Bears

Bears +1 1/2 at Panthers (45)

The Pick

Panthers 24, Bears 20

Elsewhere

Lions -3 at Jaguars (54 1/2)................................Jaguars 30, Lions 28

Falcons +4 at Vikings (54)...................................Vikings 30, Falcons 17

Texans +3 at Titans (52 1/2)................................Titans 33, Texans 27

Washington +2 1/2 at Giants (42 1/2).................Giants 20, Washington 17

Browns +3 at Steelers (51)...................................Steelers 31, Browns 21

Ravens -7 1/2 at Eagles (47 1/2).........................Ravens 38, Eagles 31

Bengals +7 1/2 at Colts (46 1/2).........................Colts 23, Bengals 10

Packers -1 at Buccaneers (55)............................Buccaneers 31, Packers 28

Rams -3 at 49ers (51)..........................................49ers 27, Rams 23

Jets +8 1/2 at Dolphins (47 1/2)........................Dolphins 28, Jets 21

Broncos +10 at Patriots (45)...............................Patriots 24, Broncos 10

Cardinals -2 at Cowboys (55)..............................Cowboys 34, Cardinals 31

Chiefs -3 1/2 at Bills (57 1/2)..............................Chiefs 20, Bills 16

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