Bear Digest

Bears 2024 Training Camp Preview: Where QB Caleb Williams Needs to Be

Analysis: Caleb Williams says he's ready to improve step by step in Year 1 rather than get caught in the trap many QBs fall into by getting ahead of themselves.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams leads Bears minicamp stretching. It's a day-to-day process he says. Now he needs to convince himself of this.
Caleb Williams leads Bears minicamp stretching. It's a day-to-day process he says. Now he needs to convince himself of this. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
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During the offseason, Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron described what he has seen about Caleb Williams’ ability to shrug off a bad play during practices.

Waldron calls this ability to go down to down instead of letting a play’s outcome affect the next one as key to any quarterback’s success.

“Not to say that the game is void of emotions cause there is going to be emotions but how do you control those emotions, how do you handle them with that open mindset, that growth mindset?” Waldron said. “I think Caleb has really embraced that and you don't see one particular play impact the next series.

“He's learned from them and moved on."

To quote Allen Iverson: “It’s practice, man.”

Waldron, himself, described the situation facing the Bears at quarterback heading into training camp far better when answering a question about his own relationship with Williams.

“I think as far as developing relationships with anybody the more time you're around people the more time you get to interact face to face and know each other, the tighter that relationship becomes,” Waldron said.

Exactly. Williams hasn't shown anything yet except ability to practice without pads or a real rush.

There is no way Waldron can know right now how Williams reacts to anything. It’s only been practice and Waldron hasn’t been around Williams in games to see if he keeps everything in proper perspective.

This is the big problem facing the Bears as they open training camp this week, well, that and getting Williams signed and in camp. He is a rookie and even with his great arm talent there will be rookie “goings-on” so to speak.

In the last decade, there have been 31 first-round quarterbacks who played in their first year and those QBs' numbers suggest the following:

  • There is about a 50-50 chance of Williams completing 60% of his passes or better. Of those 31, 15 of them were under and 16 over. Only nine got as high as 63% completions. The average for a rookie first-round quarterback in that decade is 60.4%.
  • The average rookie first-round QB throws for 2,361 yards, for 12 touchdown passes and also throw nine interceptions, throws for 6.7 yards per attempt and has a passer rating of 81.3.

The Bears are not paying Williams to be average, or they will not be paying him to be average once he signs.

They need him to be more like C.J. Stroud’s 100.8 rookie passer rating than Bryce Young’s 73.7.

They need him to be closer to Justin Herbert’s 31 rookie TD passes and less like the 12 Trevor Lawrence threw on seven more pass attempts than Herbert.

They need him to be closer to the five interceptions Joe Burrow threw as a rookie than the 15 Jameis Winston had.

There will be plenty of time in the future to worry about his development and how Williams progresses.


Plenty of bad things can happen after the first year, but the first year is the starting point.

Mac Jones came into the league with 22 TD passes and only 13 interceptions, and with a solid rookie passer rating of 92.5. Three years later he’s on another team just like Justin Fields.

However, it’s normally a lot easier for the quarterback to develop if that first year goes well.

  • Burrow’s 89.8 rookie passer rating and 65.3% completions quickly led to a Super Bowl appearance as the Bengals had a strong core moving into place around him.
  • Tua Tagovailoa’s 64.1% completions and 87.1 rookie passer rating meant winning football once they finished putting together that exciting group of receivers.

In Williams’ case, there is a very strong core of weapons in place for support, much like with Burrow and later Tagovailoa.

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“It’s pretty awesome,” Williams said.

Williams admitted to pondering the number of assets working in his favor, better possibly than any No. 1 overall pick has ever had.

“So just having that moment with myself, I do it every day, I sit there and I say, ‘We’re going to be pretty damn good,’ “ he said. “So just gotta keep working, keep going and we’re all excited.”

Probably the best trait Williams has exhibited in offseason work is one he would be wise to stick with when training camp begins. He needs to keep that proper balance between the task immediately ahead and seeing the big picture.

“Whether it’s a day that I like or a day that I don’t, there’s always good and bad in it,” Williams said. “So just finding my balance and reaching and striving for my goal, and a big part of it is just sticking to the routine, enjoying the process, enjoying my teammates, being a good teammate, going out there and working my tail off.”

It’s the kind of attitude and approach Waldron and coach Matt Eberflus no doubt wants to see.

More rookie quarterbacks end up closer to the bottom of the scale than the top when their focus is distorted by too much big picture and not enough play-by-play effort in practice and in games.

Bears Quarterback Outlook

Starter:  No. 18 Caleb Williams

Backups: No. 17 Tyson Bagent, No. 11 Brett Rypien

Roster Hopeful: No. 16 Austin Reed

Strengths: Creating something from nothing on extended plays has been a quality Williams has shown throughout college but this exciting talent overshadows the fact he was one of the nation’s best pocket passers, as well. His ability to throw from different angles might be better than any QB since Patrick Mahomes and his arm strength and accuracy are above average on deep throws. His touch on those throws has been even better than his arm strength. He was the most accurate throwing short passes in the country, according to Pro Football Focus. Williams also has better speed as a runner than he’s given credit for, possibly because he never ran the 40 at the combine. He ran for 1,600 yards in college when the sack yardage he had is added back to rushing totals. Bagent won half his first four career starts last year and is quick at diagnosing where to go with the ball and then getting it out of his hand. Rypien brings a familiarity with the system as a former Rams and Seahawks QB. Reed led a Division II team to the national title and then got to play at lower Division I. He exhibits a strong arm and mobility.

Weaknesses: There is a complete lack of experience here, with only eight NFL starts between all four quarterbacks. It’s an even bigger problem when the starter is a rookie.  Williams does need to be less focused on big plays and more on getting it out of his hand than in college because the rush is faster and coverage tighter now. He needs to protect the ball better after 17 college fumbles. Bagent’s arm strength is always a question and something that hurt him in one of his starts last year when he threw over the middle. Better accuracy is something Rypien needs to display. He has four TD passes and nine career interceptions to go with 58.3% completions. As an undrafted rookie who played mostly in Division II, Reed’s qualifications are about as low as it gets for an NFL QB.

How First-Round Rookie QBs Fared

Since 2014

QB

Comp %

Rating

TD

iNT

Yards

Bryce Young

59.8%

73.7

11

10

2,877

CJ Stroud

63.9%

100.8

23

5

4,108

Anthony Richardson

59.5%

87.3

3

1

577

Kenny Pickett

63.0%

76.7

7

9

2,404

Trevor Lawrence

59.6%

71.9

12

17

3,641

Zach Wilson

55.6%

69.7

9

11

2,334

Trey Lance

57.7%

97.3

5

2

603

Justin Fields

58.9%

73.2

7

10

1,870

Mac Jones

67.6%

92.5

22

13

3,801

Joe Burrow

65.3%

89.8

13

5

2,688

Tua Tagovailoa

64.1%

87.1

11

5

1,814

Justin Herbert

66.6%

98.3

31

10

4,336

Kyler Murray

64.4%

87.4

20

12

3,722

Daniel Jones

61.9%

87.7

24

12

3,027

Dwayne Haskins

58.6%

76.1

7

7

1,365

Baker Mayfield

63.8%

93.7

27

14

3,725

Sam Darnold

57.7%

77.6

17

15

2,865

Josh Allen

52.8%

67.9

10

12

2,074

Josh Rosen

55.2%

66.7

11

14

2,278

Lamar Jackson

58.2%

84.5

6

3

1,201

Mitchell Trubisky

59.4%

77.5

7

7

2,193

Patrick Mahomes

62.9%

76.4

0

1

284

Deshaun Watson

61.8%

103.0

19

8

1,699

Jared Goff

54.6%

63.6

5

7

1,089

Carson Wentz

62.4%

79.3

16

14

3,782

Jameis Winston

58.3%

84.2

22

15

4,042

Marcus Mariota

62.2%

91.5

19

10

2,818

Blake Bortles

58.9%

69.5

11

17

2,908

Johnny Manziel

51.4%

42.0

0

2

175

Teddy Bridgewater

64.4%

85.2

14

12

2,919

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.