Bear Digest

Bears and 49ers Week 14 Fantasy Football Starters and NFL Picks

Who to sit and who to start for fantasy football in the Bears-49ers game and picks against the spread for all the NFL games with a 59% success rate on the year ATS.

Gene Chamberlain

The Bears are 3 1/2-point underdogs on the road in the first game for coach Thomas Brown.
The Bears are 3 1/2-point underdogs on the road in the first game for coach Thomas Brown. / Dennis Wierzbicki-Imagn Images
In this story:

In so many ways, the Bears and 49ers game represents a journey into the unknown.

Bettors and fantasy players alike need to treat it with trepidation, even dread.

There are many statistics floated around about teams changing coaches and how it affects betting and performances.

The numbers indicate a real bump for teams who have been struggling. For bettors, it's 23 out of the last 40 who changed coaches in-season have covered in the first game after their coaching move. But it's still not a decisive enough percentage to avoid approaching it on a case-by-case basis.

The opponent, the playoff situation, the location, the overall trend of the series and the season all need to be taken into account with the Bears and 49ers and it's a real caution flag.

The big numbers are more situational and trending.

It's been quite a while since anyone looked at the Bears defense and saw it as a real force capable of winning a game by itself. Even without their top two running backs, the 49ers should be able to find enough of a running game to occupy the Bears' front and their pass rush has lacked consistency.

Brock Purdy won't be under the heat he was in Buffalo in the snow. The targets won't have passes hit their hands like rocks bouncing off concrete. He wasn't nearly as bad against the Bills as he showed.

The 49ers are still in the divisional race and a win, coupled with a Seattle loss, would keep hopes alive, even rocket them back into contention.

Home field is huge here because of the total failure of the Bears to handle road games dating back into last season. In fact, they haven't won a Sunday daytime road game since Matt No. 1 (Nagy) was coach.

All of these trends weigh too heavily against the Bears but the biggest is Caleb Williams' road game struggles against good pass defenses.

He may have had a breakthrough on Thanksgiving with a strong second-half rally against the Lions but he's done this before in the second half of road games. The Colts game was another. And they still couldn't recover to win. By and large, his road play has been mediocre to poor with a 73.4 passer rating to 97.5 at home.

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Those numbers can't be ignored by fantasy owners or bettors even with the coaching improvement bump the trends suggest could occur.

Here's who to start and sit in Bears at 49ers for Sunday, Dec. 8.

Start 'Em

1. 49ers TE George Kittle

The Bears and their scheme specialize in giving up big plays on critical downs to the tight ends while blanketing wide receivers. Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, Austin Hooper, Zach Ertz, Trey McBride, the list goes on and on of tight ends who burned them. And now they face the best of them. Kittle won't hold back just because he has been a Bears fan at a younger age, either (truth).

2. WR Deebo Samuel

It's been a horrible year for Samuel. He's had one game with more than four receptions since Week 2. He's coming off a four-catch, 20-yard game. They seem to have lost confidence in using him as a running back. He hasn't had more than four carries in a game since the opener and has one rushing attempt since Nov. 10. He hasn't had more than 71 yards receiving since Oct. 10. But the 49ers are down to practice squad players and untested rookies in their backfield with the injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason. They might be without Brandon Aiyuk to take attention away from Samuel, but the season is on the line in a home game. It's also possible the Bears' defensive attention will be more focused on Kittle or Jauan Jennings than a struggling Samuel.It's also hard to forget that six-catch, 171-yard day he had against the Bears in 2021.

3. WR Jauan Jennings

It's not like Jennings has put up huge numbers but he has been more dependable than Samuel this year. He has had games of 91, 93, 88 and 175 yards receiving. At 6-3, 212, Jennings is a load to handle in the open field, much like 6-foot, 215-pound Samuel. Brock Purdy should have time to find his targets on most downs and the wide receiver screen game could open up if Bears defensive coordinator Eric Washington goes to blitzing more than Matt Eberflus did.

4. QB Brock Purdy

The 49ers remain one of the better deep passing teams in the league even as Purdy's overall stats have declined and his touchdown/interception ratio has been the worst he's had in three years. They are no worse than 13th in average gain or completion percentage when they throw downfield in any direction and are No. 1 in both at 20.69 yards average and 62% when they throw it deep left. So they will challenge Jaylon Johnson, Terell Smith or the Bears safeties deep, leaving Kittle room to roam underneath. Expect Purdy to throw some dump-offs to Isaac Guerendo, who could turn them into big gains. The Bears defense tends to give up screen yardage or passes on swing passes anyway, and Guerendo has great speed, although he's not the tougher inside runner like they have usually relied upon.

5. Bears WR Keenan Allen

San Francisco's pass defense has been more susceptible to being beaten for more yards short left (27th, 6.06-yard average) and short middle (30th, 7.42-yard average) than any other place and Allen can exploit those areas. He did it last week effectively in the rally by the Bears and is healthy enough after an ankle injury.

6. 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo

No one would really have him on their fantasy roster but he might be a shrewd pick-up for this week even if he has only started one game at running back since fourth grade. In Guerendo's case, it's the opponent that makes him a possible key impact player. The run defense of the Bears is spotty and has found ways to get burned by lesser known backs. Cardinals back Emari Demercado is the perfect example.

Sit 'Em

1. Bears QB Caleb Williams

The road statistics are one reason to expect a poor game. He's facing a pass defense ranked top 5 in yards allowed and 10th in interceptions. They're also healthier in the secondary than they have been at times in recent games. The one hope is they can protect Williams well enough so he can exploit some of the holes in San Francisco coverage. Normally this isn't a good bet but without Nick Bosa and with the Bears looking to be fully healthy up front on offense, there is at least a chance this could happen.

2. Bears WR DJ Moore

He had only a few plays in practice on Friday after his quad injury. Moore does tend to play through most injuries but this is enough to make him, at best, a coin flip for the fantasy owner who has depended on him.

3. Bears RB D'Andre Swift

Like Moore, he has a quad injury. It's the kind of thing many players can't play through, especially backs. He's also going to take hits to this area and is a back far more dependent upon his speed than some backs. His stats have also trended downward with 30 and 39 yards rushing the last two games and only five total receptions for those games.

4. Bears WR Rome Odunze

The Niners' secondary is one of the worst in the league covering deep on the side Odunze normally lines up, allowing seven catches in 10 attempts for a 25.1-yard average on the catches. But Odunze hasn't been consistently used in the attack by Williams as a weapon. He's been more someone he resorts to when DJ Moore or another target is unavailable.

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5. Bears TE Cole Kmet

Fred Warner patrols the middle of the field for the 49ers and that's enough said. He's the best pass-defending linebacker in the NFL.

6. Bears RB Travis Homer

Some genius fantasy players might think they're going to rush out and grab him off the scrap heap and he'll have a big game with Swift hurting but he's done so little the last two to three years that this seems extremely unlikely. At one time he had promise as an effective third-down back but injuries kept getting in his way.

Defense

With Nick Bosa unlikely to play, the 49ers are a much more risky team defensive play, although home field does help their defense more.

With Matt Eberflus no longer calling defensive plays, the Bears defense is a total risk. They've trended downward anyway as a defense so only a fantasy owner who had a regular defensive facing one of the league's top offensive teams would resort to using the Bears defense.

You can criticize Eberflus as a head coach and also as a late-game defensive signal caller quite easily but his ability over the course of games to have his defense in the best situation possible to prevent point production is best understood by the Bears' No. 1 rank in the NFL for red zone touchdowns allowed. The Bears on defense will be hurt over the course of the next five games by not having their former head coach. If he had figured out how to defend a Hail Mary or stop a long run just before halftime, he might still be the head coach.

In IDP leagues, Deommodore Lenoir is healthy after injuries and his passer rating against of 66.7 and completion percentage allowed of only 59.1% as the nickel, he's someone who can greatly impact the 49ers defense against the Bears. He has two interceptions on the year.

Another impact player could be edge rusher Leonard Floyd. He has 6 1/2 sacks. The former Bears edge rusher had only 18 1/2 sacks in his four Bears seasons and former GM Ryan Pace gave up on him and cut him. Since then, with the Bears needing a second pass rusher besides Khalil Mack and now Montez Sweat, he has averaged 9.3 sacks per season with a low for a full season of 9.0.

Ooops.

The Betting Window

Chicago Bears On SI Bears Picks to Date: 10-2 straight up, 6-6 against the spread, 6-6 over/under

This Week's Chicago Bears On SI Pick: 49ers 24, Bears 17

Around the NFL Last Week:13-3 straight up, 9-7 against the spread, 3-1 power plays

Around the NFL to Date: 129-58 straight up (.690), 106-73-2 against the spread (.586), 30-22 power plays (.577)

This Week's NFL Games and Picks:

  • Raiders +6 1/2 at Buccaneers: Buccaneers 24, Raiders 10*
  • Browns +6 1/2 at Steelers: Steelers 23, Browns 16
  • Jaguars +3 1/2 at Titans: Jaguars 24, Titans 21*
  • Panthers +13 1/2 at Eagles: Eagles 33, Panthers 21
  • Falcons +5 1/2 at Vikings: Vikings 28, Falcons 23 
  • Jets +5 1/2 at Dolphins: Dolphins 20, Jets 14*
  • Saints -5 1/2 at Giants: Saints 27, Giants 17
  • Seahawks +2 1/2 at Cardinals: Cardinals 20, Seahawks 17
  • Bills -3 1/2 at Rams: Bills 24, Rams 19
  • Chargers +3 1/2 at Chiefs: Chiefs 27, Chargers 20*
  • Bengals -5 1/2 at Cowboys: Cowboys 41, Bengals 37
  • Rams +2 1/2 at 49ers: 49ers 20, Rams 19
  • Commanders -3 1/2 at Saints: Commanders 28, Saints 24**

*Power plays

**Thursday night game Dec. 12

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published |Modified
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.