Bear Digest

Bears and Lions Week 16 Fantasy Starters and NFL Picks

Who to start and who to sit from Sunday's game between the Bears and the Lions as well as NFL picks against the point spread and power plays.

Gene Chamberlain

Jared Goff passes against the Bears last year in the cold at Soldier Field.
Jared Goff passes against the Bears last year in the cold at Soldier Field. / Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images
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Playoff time in standard fantasy football probably means you're not looking at using players from the Bears offense because if you did have them and used them you most likely have been eliminated in your league.

That's what the NFL's last-ranked offense can do for you.

However, there are still those who play the daily fantasy game, and also in standard leagues some players could pop up as sleepers to surprise an opponent with based on their matchups in games.

SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano has his sleeper picks for this week out and among those is an unlikely name. It's Rome Odunze.

The logic is sound for Odunze because, like with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, he'll be going against a depleted Detroit defense as a result of injuries.

Another thing to like—Caleb Williams throwing to Odunze at home, where he has a 97.5 passer rating for the season. That's 18.4 points higher than on the road. Odunze has been getting more targets of late, too. The trend can be your friend here.

DJ Moore actually looks like a better bet because of how he can beat man-to-man coverage for plenty of yardage and the Lions normally play a lot of man anyway but with so many subs in the simple coverage is better and they need to play it anyway because they're forced to blitz more without their best pass rushers, Alim McNeill and Aidan Hutchinson available.

At a time of year when the Bears don't look much like a team fantasy owners need to bother with, this week could be the exception to the rule.

Here's who to start and who to sit from the Bears and Lions game in this week's fantasy lineups.

Start 'Em

1. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

With 64 targets in seven games, it's apparent Jared Goff is going to his best guy when it counts most. St. Brown usually is not going to draw coverage from the strongest Bears coverage man, Jaylon Johnson, since Johnson doesn't usually take slot duty. The Bears did limit St. Brown's targets to seven at Thanksgiving but gave up plenty in other ways elsewhere. They don't figure to get by doing this again. St. Brown is on a hot strea with 14 catches and 193 yards last week against the Bills.

2. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs

He's the guy now with David Montgomery gone. Gibbs gets the chance to show what he's capable of with the bulk of the work instead of a 50-50 or 55-45 split. Detroit's efficient run blockers make it a good bet he'd succeed against anyone but facing a Bears defense that has given up over 100 yards rushing in 12 games and eight straight of 106 yards or more is a reason to suspect Gibbs will go off. The Lions will use Craig Reynolds some in relief of Gibbs but it's mostly his show.

3. Bears WR DJ Moore

His last game of eight catches, 97 yards and a TD against a healthier Lions defense was indicative of what he's capable of in this game. So is his record against the Lions. He's never had less than five catches, has five TDs in six games and averages 104 yards a game.

4. Bears QB Caleb Williams

His better home passer rating and coming of a couple of sub-par road efforts make Williams more likely to produce better numbers. The Lions are going to challenge him with man-to-man and the reading of the defense is fairly straight forward then. The Lions pass defense had prevented 200 yards passing in four out of its previous five games but when injuries hit this hard last week they gave up 362 to Josh Allen. It's not easy to play coverage without the rush and the Lions are left with one really effective rush man to go after Williams.

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5. Bears RB D'Andre Swift

The yardage on the ground won't come immediately but if the Bears are patient it will. Moreso, the Bears will try to get him involved in the passing game the way Buffalo did with its backs against the Lions.

6. Lions TE Sam LaPorta

He was bottled up last time and one of the few tight ends who hasn't put up big numbers against the Bears. Still, he got in the end zone twice and that's what fantasy football is all about

7. Bears WR Keenan Allen

His two TD catches last game was his high for the year and showed what he'll do against man coverage.

8. Bears WR Rome Odunze

The Williams-Odunze rookie connection is starting to take shape more as the season winds down the stretch and he also has 19 catches in his last four games at Soldier Field, which is 40% of his catches for the full 14 games.

Sit 'Em

1. Lions QB Jared Goff

His numbers in cold weather are alarming. A passer rating in the mid 70s for temps 39 and colder. And this will be worse because gametime should be a little below 30 but with a strong wind. 

2. Lions WR Jameson Williams

It stands to reason Williams could make a few big catches but with St. Brown usually not drawing coverage from Jaylon Johnson, it could mean coverage is shifted instead to Williams and that's not a battle the Lions receiver is going to win.

3. Bears TE Cole Kmet

Too few targets of late for Kmet makes it look as though Caleb Williams is not getting far enough with his progression. Only four targets or less in seven of the last eight games might not be entirely Williams' fault. This Bears offensive system really didn't rely much on a tight end as a receiver in Seattle and it carried over whether it was Shane Waldron or Thomas Brown calling the plays.

Defense

This shouldn't be much of a defensive game with the Bears struggling to stop anyone and facing Ben Johnson's offense and the Lions down to scraping up players off waivers to fill out a lineup sheet.

In IDP leagues, Kerby Joseph is healthy and always a threat for an interception because of his league-high total of seven. Also Brian Branch is healthy enough to play and has been a Lions playmaker in the back.

Za'Darius Smith might also be an individual league play considering he has a history of making life miserable for the Bears offense no matter which quarterback is he faces. He had a sack and a half against them in Detroit a short time after joining the Lions.

The Betting Window

Chicago Bears Line: Lions by 6 1/2, over/under 47 1/2

This Week's Chicago Bears On SI Pick: Lions 26, Bears 20

Chicago Bears On SI Bears Picks to Date: 12-2 straight up, 8-6 against the spread, 6-8 over/under

Around the NFL Last Week: 12-3 straight up, 7-8 against the spread, 3-1 power plays.

Around the NFL to Date: 149-65 straight up (.696), 118-88-2 against the spread (.573), 35-25 power plays (.583).

This Week's Games

  • Texans +3 1/2 at Chiefs: Chiefs 20, Texans 16*
  • Steelers +7 at Ravens: Ravens 27, Steelers 17*
  • Browns +8 1/2 at Bengals: Bengals 28, Browns 17
  • Cardinals -4 1/2 at Panthers: Cardinals 20, Panthers 17
  • Eagles -3 1/2 at Commanders: Eagles 27, Commanders 21*
  • Giants +8 1/2 at Falcons: Falcons 16, Giants 14
  • Titans +3 1/2 at Colts: Colts 19, Titans 16
  • Rams -3 at Jets: Rams 27, Jets 23
  • Vikings -3 at Seahawks: Seahawks 28, Vikings 27
  • Patriots +14 1/2 at Bills: Bills 34, Patriots 23
  • 49ers +1 1/2 at Dolphins: 49ers 20, Dolphins 17
  • Jaguars +1 1/2 at Raiders: Jaguars 24, Raiders 19*
  • Buccaneers -3 1/2 at Cowboys: Buccaneers 34, Cowboys 28
  • Saints +14 1/2 at Packers: Packers 30, Saints 17
  • Chiefs - 1 1/2 at Steelers: Chiefs 21, Steelers 16^
  • Ravens -3 1/2 at Texans: Ravens 27, Texans 20^
  • Chargers -5 1/2 at Patriots Chargers 20, Patriots 17^^

*Power play

^Dec. 25 game

^^Dec. 26 game

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.