Bear Digest

Bears and Packers: Fantasy Football Plays and NFL Week 11 Picks

The Bears and Packers promise to take fantasy football fans on a journey toward football the way it was played in the 1960s and earlier, with a decided lack of offense and fantasy points.

Gene Chamberlain

Packers linebacker Eric Wilson goes for a tackle of Tyler Scott last season at Soldier Field in a 38-20 Packers win.
Packers linebacker Eric Wilson goes for a tackle of Tyler Scott last season at Soldier Field in a 38-20 Packers win. / Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
In this story:

For a period of time last decade, Bears and Packers games produced positive results for fantasy owners.
Aaron Rodgers made sure of this. When Jay Cutler was playing, the Bears were able to do damage in the passing game, and Matt Forte was always a play.
There was a bit of a revival at the end of the Matt Nagy era and Matt Eberflus first two years because the Bears defensively had no answer and points went up: 45-30, 38-20. The Bears and Packers games were fantasy football heaven.

That appeared to change with the 2023 season ender. The Bears improved defensively and held Green Bay in check in a 17-9 loss with excellent red zone defense. They’re still playing it, and rank No. 1 even while their offense doesn’t have a clue where the red zone is.
The Packers have a different defensive approach and are facing an offense in a state of free fall.


Points and yards figure to come at a premium for either team as Packers coach Matt LaFleur is likely to lean on his running game and the Bears will lean on defense and field position.

The Bears should even want to consider quick-kicking like they used to do in the early 1900s on second or third down because Tory Taylor is one of their most dependable weapons when they have the ball.

Exciting.
Here’s who to start and sit in a game that should have fantasy owners yawning.

Start ‘Em

1. Packers RB Josh Jacobs

The Packers will see how the Bears have been pushed back off the line much of the year on first and second down against the run. They rank 20th, but without Andrew Billings they’ll be worse than this. Jacobs will have the ability to build momentum before making a cut. Thinking of the Bears as stout against the run is living in the past and their young defensive tackles haven’t yet stepped up enough as run stoppers. The other reason Jacobs is a good start is Matt LaFleur won’t give up on him the way some other coaches might if he has some difficulty initially.

2. Packers QB Jordan Love

Seeing Love as someone to sit when they’re facing the Bears just because of his 10 interceptions this season is foolishness. It’s true only one QB has thrown for more than one TD pass against the Bears defense this season. Here’s the second, and his two games last year with five TD passes against them proved he can do it.

3. Packers WR Christian Watson

After a very slow start, Watson has heated up gradually with 11 catches and a TD in the last four games. He has a very favorable matchup to get loose for one deep score against Tyrique Stevenson. Every other team has been picking on Stevenson lately.

4. Bears RB D’Andre Swift

Swift has become a model of consistency over the last five weeks for an offense that doesn’t rely on him as much as it should. His new offensive coordinator was a running back. Guess who’s getting the ball? Green Bay’s defense has improved, allowing the second fewest points in fantasy ball since Week 7, but they haven’t been dominant and give up something. Swift is not easy to shut down unless the Bears do it themselves.

5. Bears TE Cole Kmet

Green Bay’s linebackers have not been their greatest asset on defense and their safeties will be backed off covering Bears wide receivers too much to silence Kmet. He’ll get back to where he was in London and earlier, and then he was one of the surest fantasy bets. The problem here is he’s a tight end and not catching the ball for deeper gains, which is what the Bears passing game really needs. But for fantasy purposes he’ll do fine.

6. Packers TE Tucker Kraft

Quietly Kraft has 28 catches and he is perfectly situated to hurt the Bears’ zone. The Packers move him anywhere against zones and he’s not going to necessarily be planted up against Tremaine Edmunds, whose size and speed would be a mismatch for Kraft. He’ll find his spots and deliver against a defense that has had some trouble stopping Evan Engram, Austin Hooper, Zach Ertz, et al.

7. Packers WR Jayden Reed

It’s true he’s not exactly hitting a fantasy football peak in recent games and the Bears lead the NFL at limiting slot receivers in fantasy points thanks, largely, to Kyler Gordon but also Josh Blackwell. However, Reed is the best Packers receiver and at some point in the game his presence will be felt.

Sit ‘Em

1. Bears QB Caleb Williams

He doesn’t resemble the passer he was for 3 ½ games, starting with the second half against the Colts in Week 3. Williams is having difficulty against man-to-man and the blitz. The Packers are more of a zone team but so were the Patriots until they saw how much Williams is struggling. Until it’s proven the new offensive coordinator’s approach changes things, it’s status quo on Williams for fantasy owners.

BEARS AND PACKERS: WHO WINS AND WHY FOR WEEK 11

THREE KEYS TO A BEARS UPSET OF THE PACKERS

THE PLAYERS WHO GIVE BEARS A SHOT AT UPSETTING PACKERS

BEARS FRIDAY INJURY REPORT POSITIVE WITH MONTEZ SWEAT AND TACKLES

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/chicago-bears-and-green-bay-packers-who-wins-and-why-week-11

2. Bears WR Keenan Allen

The one thing the Bears offense didn’t do last week that it should have was locate receivers short and middle against the Patriots, who had been terrible in coverage in this part of the field. Allen is the natural target there and Thomas Brown won’t forget to have them looking at this option, but the struggles they’ve had on offense would limit any gains here to 7 or 8 yards a catch and nothing in the red zone. Best to avoid Allen this week.

3. Bears WR DJ Moore

Moore not only isn’t on the same page with Williams, he’s not even in the same book.

4. Bears WR Rome Odunze

His connection with Williams has been steadily improving but he’s playing the side where the Packers will have Jaire Alexander and isn’t likely to come up with much.

5. Packers WR Romeo Doubs

He’ll likely be perched where Jaylon Johnson is because the Bears usually will either have him on that side of the field or with the opponents’ best receiver. Since Reed is the best Packers receiver but is in the slot, Johnson will stay put and guard Doubs.

Defense

The Packers defense is a good play this week. When your opponent has scored 27 points in three weeks, it’s party time for a defense.
In IDP leagues, Alexander and Xaiver McKinney are good plays. Williams has been able to keep his interception total at five for three games but at some point he’ll have to throw one up to take a chance and either of these two could be waiting for it.
Expecting anything from the Bears IDP-wise in the pass rush department would be unwise because of Green Bay’s offensive line strength and Montez Sweat’s assortment of injuries.

The Betting Window

Bears On SI Record in Bears Games: 7-2 Straight Up, 6-3 against the spread, 5-4 over/under.

This Week's Bears Line: Packers by 5 1/2 (40 1/2 over/under)

This Week's Bears On SI Bears Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 12

Last Week Around the NFL: 10-3 straight up, 8-5 against the spread, 2-2 power plays

Around the NFL to Date: 98-49 straight up (.667), 83-62-2 ATS (.572), 22-18 power plays (.550)
This Week's NFL Games and Picks:

• Jaguars +13 ½ at Lions: Lions 27, Jaguars 14
• Rams -4 ½ at Patriots: Rams 20, Patriots 17
• Vikings -5 1/2 at Titans: Vikings 31, Titans 20*
• Browns -1 ½ at Saints: Saints 12, Browns 9
• Ravens -3 at Steelers: Ravens 27, Steelers 12*
• 49ers -6 1/2 at Seahawks: 49ers 23, Seahawks 17
• Colts +3 ½ at Jets: Jets 19, Colts 14*
• Raiders +7 at Dolphins: Dolphins 27, Raiders 10
• Falcons -2 ½ at Broncos: Broncos 26, Falcons 24*
• Chiefs +2 ½ at Bills: Bills 23, Chiefs 20
• Bengals +1 ½ at Chargers: Bengals 24, Chargers 23
• Texans -7 ½ at Cowboys: Texans 20, Cowboys 17

*Power play
-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.