Bear Digest

Bears and Rams: Fantasy Football Favorites and NFL Best Bets

Who to sit and start in Sunday's Bears-Rams game in fantasy football as well as picks on winners against the spread around the NFL and power play picks.

Gene Chamberlain

Cole Kmet has a pass bounce off his hands against the Rams in the 2021 Bears' road loss against L.A.
Cole Kmet has a pass bounce off his hands against the Rams in the 2021 Bears' road loss against L.A. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
In this story:

Heading into the season, this Rams and Bears matchup looked like a real winner for fantasy owners.

Much has changed in only three weeks.

The Bears running game arrived DOA, and that's no help to QB Caleb Williams. When he lost Keenan Allen to injury, it made everything worse.

The Rams wide receiver duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp will watch this one on TV and they're having problems keeping the pass rush off Matthew Stafford almost to the same extent the Bears are for Williams.

Make no mistake: There will be some offense played in this game on occasion but it's more likely to develop into a defensive struggle, as most recent Bears-Rams games in Chicago seem to be. The Rams haven't scored in double figures in their last three trips to Chicago, dating back to 2009.

As such, the fantasy football value here could be sparce.

There are a few players who might come up with plays and here's who to start and sit.

Start 'Em

1. Bears TE Cole Kmet

Things are suddenly looking up for the Bears tight end with 15 catches on the year and 10 last week. Rams linebackers are not exactly clamping down on passes to tight ends. They are allowing a 93.3% catch/targets percentage for tight ends. Kmet already owns a high rate against the rest of the league at 88.2% (15 catches, 17 targets) and he has a red zone TD, which is his specialty.

2. Bears WR DJ Moore

Rams cornerbacks have been playing chase all season and Moore should be able to break a few catch-and-run plays or get deep. He's making receptions but with someone draped on his back so far. The Rams are a distant last in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt at 9.8. That's almost a full yard worse than the next-worst team, the Cardinals.

3. Rams RB Kyren Williams

They finally got him rolling last week with 89 yards on 24 rushes. He also has some pass-catching ability and they'll need to rely on it this week with their top two targets out injured. The place to attack the Bears pass defense is underneath more than downfield. Williams and the tight ends might get more work than in the past.

BEARS AND RAMS: WHO WINS AND WHY

IS CAUTIOUS APPROACH TO KEENAN ALLEN INJURY SUFFICIENT?

BEARS ELEVATE TWO FROM PRACTICE SQUAD AND PUT STEPHEN CARLSON ON IR

BEARS ON OFFENSE VENT FRUSTRATIONS TO OC SHANE WALDRON

4. Bears RB D'Andre Swift

Don't give up on Swift just yet. If it happens again, it will be strike four, you're out. Three straight washouts for Swift has led to talk of more plays for Roschon Johnson but along comes a Rams defense struggling against both the run and the pass. The Colts, last week, at least could play respectable pass defense and the Bears couldn't run on them. It's more likely they'll have success with something in this one and the inviting soft perimeter of the Rams defense is where their running game could prosper. The Rams give up 5.0 yards or more per carry to plays at the tackles and to the outside. Their linebackers haven't reacted well to cover and Swift can hurt a defense as a receiver, as well.

5. Rams QB Matthew Stafford

They're underdogs and as such could be playing from behind, facing the only good defense in this game. So Stafford's big day passing can't be assumed, but he should able to do something in comeback mode like he did last week. He has an ability to adapt to what a defense is leaving him and squeeze out yardage this way. It won't matter who his receiver is when the Bears are playing back in zone. He'll find someone under it for yardage.

6. Rams WR Tutu Atwell

The undersized receiver will get plenty of routes under the Bears' zone with hopes he'll pile up YAC. Atwell has seven catches for 141 yards the last two games and process of elimination says he'll get plenty of targets. He had nine the first three games. He'll also be going against Kyler Gordon and he has been the weakest link coverage-wise for the Bears with the worst Pro Football Focus pass coverage grade of all their players. The Bears need to rally to the ball with him, and make sure theyre not too far from him when he catches it.

7. Bears WR Rome Odunze

The tendency is to think Odunze and Caleb Williams have that connection built up now after a 112-yard receiving game with a TD by Odunze last week. The total could drop some with Keenan Allen available but this is the future for the Bears offense and the ability to go downfield with it against the Rams pass defense is too inviting.

8. Bears K Cairo Santos

Even the 56-yard miss didn't count much against Santos last week as it was his only miss of the year and would have been a career high. He's used to kicking in elements but the weather should be fine for football Sunday at Soldier Field.

Sit 'Em

1. Bears WR Keenan Allen

His heel injury apparently has healed enough to let him play Sunday but how certain is this, really? It's the kind of situation that until fully healed could easily pop up again. He hasn't played in two weeks and had only four catches in 11 targets in the first game.

A lot of talk from the Rams says Whittington, a rookie from Texas, is going to step up and be Stafford's No. 1 with Nacua and Kupp out. He hasn't shown he's ready. It's that simple.

3. Rams WR DeMarcus Robinson

If there is a receiver with the physical skills to be the No. 1 until the injured Rams receivers return, it's the 6-1, 202-pound Robinson. But he has always been a great athlete dating back to the start of his career in 2016. He just hasn't been an impactful wide receiver, with only two seasons over 32 receptions and never more than 48. He made 26 last year for L.A. Any backup receiver matched up on Jaylon Johnson is a loss for the Rams.

4. Bears QB Caleb Williams

The two interceptions and a lost fumble probably did more to convince coaches to be more conservative with play calling this week than his 363 yards passing did to say he's ready to be turned loose as a passer. Even with Allen returning this week, a big game can't be assumed for Williams until he proves it. Any fantasy owner who is counting on him to start, even against one of the worst pass defenses, is only grasping at straws way too early, has done a bad job of drafting QBs or is in a league with too many teams.

5. Bears RB Roschon Johnson

Let's wait and see what more carries actually constitutes. It might be nine or 10 instead of eight. That would excite no one.

6. Rams TE Colby Parkinson

If Parkinson suddenly emerges as a receiving tight end who makes a big impact here, more power to the Rams. He's a 6-7, big body who can block or be a red zone target but has never had more than 25 catches in a year. He does have eight for 80 yards so far, but seems to be pushing the limits of his pass-catching skills.

7. Bears TE Gerald Everett

There might be more of a chance of Everett suddenly making an impact against his old team than there is Parkinson doing this. The old revenge thing exists, but Everett hasn't shown he can fit into this Bears offense with so many other targets involved.

Defense

There is probably too much potential for offense to stake a defensive call on the Bears for this week unless you're in a league with only six to eight teams. What they've done with takeaways is impressive for points in standard leagues but they have only seven sacks and this makes a difference for defensive points. Still, in a larger league they would be worth starting, particularly because of the lack of receivers available to the Rams.

In IDP leagues, Montez Sweat is worth a play because the Bears could have him lining up extensively on the left side of the Rams offense due to pass blocking deficiencies with left tackle Warren McClendon.

The Betting Window

Bears On SI Record in Bears games: 3-0 straight up, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 over/under

Bears On SI Pick: Bears 17, Rams 10

Last Week Around the NFL: 10-6 Straight Up, 11-5 ATS***

***Total includes previous Thursday night game

Around the NFL to Date: 29-18 Straight Up, 27-20 ATS

Power Plays Last Week: 2-2

Power Plays to Date: 6-6

This Week's Lines and NFL Picks

  • Panthers + 4 1/2 at Bengals: Bengals 27, Panthers 20
  • Eagles -2 at Buccaneers: Eagles 23, Buccaneers 20*
  • Jets +7 1/2 at Broncos: Broncos 23, Jets 17
  • Vikings +3 at Packers: Packers 24, Vikings 17*
  • Saints +2 1/2 at Falcons: Falcons 20, Saints 17
  • Steelers -1 1/2 at Colts: Colts 21, Steelers 16
  • Jaguars +6 at Texans: Texans 24, Jaguars 20*
  • Patriots +10 1/2 at 49ers: 49ers 31, Patriots 20
  • Commanders +3 1/2 at Cardinals: Cardinals 28, Commanders 24
  • Browns +2 at Raiders: Browns 27, Raiders 19*
  • Chiefs -7 at Chargers: Chiefs 23, Chargers 13
  • Bills +2 1/2 at Ravens: Bills 23, Ravens 20
  • Titans +1 at Dolphins: Dolphins 24, Titans 21
  • Seahawks +3 1/2 at Lions: Lions 27, Seahawks 23
  • Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Falcons: Buccaneers 20, Falcons 14**

**Thursday Night Football Week 5

*Power Play

  • Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published |Modified
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.