Bear Digest

Bears and Texans: Best Bets and Fantasy Football Favorites

Weekly NFL picks against the spread and who to start and who to sit in fantasy football for Sunday's Bears at Texans game.

Gene Chamberlain

The Bears are 6 1/2-point underdogs at Houston and haven't won a Sunday night road game since 2014.
The Bears are 6 1/2-point underdogs at Houston and haven't won a Sunday night road game since 2014. / Kevin Whitlock / Massillon Independent / USA TODAY NETWORK
In this story:

It's back to the bad old days for Bears fans who are fantasy football owners and like tacking a few Chicago players onto their roster.

When Justin Fields was quarterback, they could expect plenty of scoring from a quarterback who was a quasi-running back. Now, it's a more conventional passer who is going to need refinement, like any young QB.

The cascading effect for fantasy ball is the receivers score less because the quarterback is trying to gain experience. The same holds try at tight end. The Bears no longer are fantasy football darlings.

Running back could be less affected because of their dual nature, but if the way the Bears used their backs last week is an indication they might as well be going with a naked backfield and five wides. No running back is going to make a significant impact on 10 carries, fantasy ball or reality ball.

Before Fields, the Bears were one of the teams everyone wanted to avoid in a fantasy draft.

It would seem they're back in the same place, with Williams

This week, however, the injury situation could work to boost one Bears player's stock in fantasy football, if not two.

C.J. Stroud, the Texans receivers and running back Joe Mixon look like the real play for Sunday night's game, anyway.

Start 'Em

Texans QB C.J. Stroud

A 230-yard or 240-yard game but it might take a few quarters for him to get rolling because they'll need a run base for play-action and the Bears defense will come out trying to shut down Joe Mixon. Stroud will be needed to pull it out and should be able to do it.

Texans WR Tank Dell

The Bears are fully capable of taking Nico Collins out of the Texans attack through using Jaylon Johnson on him but trying to stop three receivers will be difficult. And Dell has the added advantage of being a target they can hit underneath the zone, one who will pick up yards after the catch. He had a rather quiet start with three catches but look for more opportunity this week.

Texans RB Joe Mixon

When a back carries it 30 times it says something about his ability but also a lot about the offensive coordinator. Bobby Slowik, son of former Bears defensive coordinator Bob Slowik, is not afraid to load  it up in the back's hands. A game with 30 carries used to be common in the NFL but not today. Especially with an injury affecting Dameon Pierce, Mixon should get used both in the running and under the Bears' zone in the passing game.

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Texans WR Stefon Diggs

Switching teams for a receiver can be difficult initially and Diggs had only 33 yards on six catches last week. Look for an expanded role this week. He did have an impact in the red zone last week, though, with two TDs. Diggs made over 100 catches five of the last six years. Expect his catch total to start to climb, especially against the Bears' zone. Diggs has a knack for finding the dead spots in zones.

Bears WR DJ Moore

Even if the Bears get blown out or they lose convincingly, Moore will get targeted this week as the offense is put into comeback mode. He might be the only healthy starter they have at wide receiver. Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are injury issues, which would mean Moore is the main target. It will seem like old times for Moore, who had to spend much of last year as the only viable target with Darnell Mooney held to 31 catches.

Bears TE Cole Kmet

One of the great oversights last week was only 27 plays for a tight end who had 70 catches last year. A tight end is supposed to be the best friend of a young quarterback because he's right there near the line of scrimmage, yet Kmet had one 4-yard catch. Simply on the face of it, Kmet figures to be targeted quite a bit more, but the Texans' inexperience in the secondary with two rookies playing, and a so-so linebacker corps should get him open more than last week.

Texans WR Nico Collins

Eventually the Texans should be able to get passes to him even if Jaylon Johnson is on him because the Bears don't figure to be able to blanket everyone for the entire game. Think red zone damage for Collins this week as he is limited in his catch total and yardage.

Bears RB D'Andre Swift

Last week's disappointing 30 yards, 20 on one fourth-quarter run, were disappointing but he'll be going against a much less stout front. The edges are tough in this Texans defense but the tackles and linebackers are questionable.

Bears K Cairo Santos

He had three field goal attempts last week and their offense could be challenged in the red zone, if they can get to it. The conditions will be more conducive for kickers this week, even if the roof is open like they plan.

Sit 'Em

Bears QB Caleb Williams

No one should have him in their fantasy starting lineup anyway, at least until he proves something in the NFL.

Bears WR Rome Odunze

He had only one catch in four targets when he was healthy and now he's not. Even if allowed to play, it shouldn't be a situation where he'll pile up catches after spraining a knee a week ago.

Bears WR Keenan Allen

This is the real wild card. A fantasy owner with alternatives should look to those because Allen has had this heel condition since back at the end of training camp and it only seems to have worsened. They gave him a few days off this week. It could wind up being a situation where he needs to sit out a game or two just to get this healthy again.

Texans TE Dalton Schultz

He's capable of a big game but had just three catches for 16 yards and had an injury. Now it seems he has healed good health can't be assumed.

Defenses

If you missed out on the sure thing of fantasy ball last week, the Bears defense, then you must have been one of those skeptics who didn't pay attention to what was happening late last season. This is one of the league's best defenses. However, they're not a play this week since they are playing one of the league's best offenses. The Texans are not necessarily known for great defense but they might be worth considering based on the Bears' 148-yard effort last week. Still, it seems a dangerous choice because the middle of the Texans defense should be there for Caleb Williams to take, whether it's throwing to Cole Kmet or giving it to D'Andre Swift.

In IDP leagues, look to Texans defensive end Danielle Hunter. In his 13 games against the Bears, Huntler has 7 1/2 sacks and 11 quarterback hits. This was with the Vikings but he has Will Anderson Jr. on the other side now. It's going to be difficult for Darnell Wright to keep Hunter at bay all day. Another top play is Texans cornerback Derek Stingley. With six interceptions in his two seasons, facing a rookie QB in his second game is a time to expect interceptions.

The Betting Window

Last Week: 10-4 straight up, 7-7 against the spread, 2-2 ATS power plays

The Line: Bears +6 1/2 at Texans (over/under 45 1/2)

Bears On SI Record in Bears Games to Date: 1-0 straight up, 1-0 ASAP, 1-0 Over/under

Bears On SI Pick: Texans 26, Bears 13

Around the NFL

Game and Line/Bears On SI Pick

*Power play

Saints +6 1/2 at Cowboys (46 1/2): Cowboys 24, Saints 20

Buccaneers +7 1/2 at Lions (51 1/2): Lions 31, Buccaneers 20*

Browns +3 at Jaguars (41 1/2): Jaguars 24, Browns 20

49ers -5 1/2 at Vikings (46 1/2): 49ers 24, Vikings 20 

Chargers -4 1/2 at Panthers (38 1/2): Chargers 28, Panthers 23

Raiders +8 1/2 at Ravens (41 1/2): Ravens 34, Raiders 10

Seahawks -3 1/2 at Patriots (38 1/2): Patriots 19, Seahawks 17

Colts -3 at Packers (40 1/2): Packers 17, Colts 13*

Jets -3 1/2 at Titans (41 1/2): Jets 26, Titans 14*

Giants +1 1/2 at Commanders (43 1/2): Commanders 27, Giants 24

Rams +1 1/2 at Cardinals (47 1/2): Rams 30, Cardinals 20*

Bengals +5 1/2 at Chiefs (47 1/2): Chiefs 24, Bengals 21

Steelers -2 1/2 at Broncos (36 1/2): Broncos 24, Steelers 16*

Falcons +6 at Eagles (46 1/2): Eagles 21, Falcons 17

Patriots +7 at Jets* (39 1/2): Jets 28, Patriots 20**

**Thursday Night Football

  • Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.