Bear Digest

Bears and Titans: Trends, Best Bets and Fantasy Tips

Analysis: The betting lines, trends and fantasy football tips for Sunday's game at Soldier Field between the Bears and Tennessee Titans as Caleb Williams makes his debut at QB.

Gene Chamberlain

Will Levis has nine games experience heading into the opener at Soldier Field but it's nine games more than Caleb Williams.
Will Levis has nine games experience heading into the opener at Soldier Field but it's nine games more than Caleb Williams. / Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images
In this story:

Former Bears coaches Lovie Smith and Marc Trestman used to like saying each season is an entity unto itself.

In other words, there is no carryover. The season ends and everything starts anew the next year. Even Matt Eberflus has talked in these terms before, but it isn't really true. It's not naive because they all know this, it's just coachspeak to keep alive hope for teams who haven't arrived or won't.

It's especially true in the betting world. Even when there is regime change in the NFL, good and bad betting trends for teams continue on until they are reversed.

The Bears had a long run as betting dogs and now they seem to have reversed the trend. The Titans are in the middle of being dogs and have yet to reverse the trend.

There are trends that have nothing to do with betting that supersede the betting trends. Tennessee has lost 10 of its last 11 and also has lost 10 of its last 11 road games.

Those are the really difficult trends to reverse, and no coaching regimes, new general managers and more talent usually need time to flip it. The Bears have already found this out. 

Here are the top numbers and also top plays and top fantasy players for Bears and Titans at Soldier Field in Week 1.

BEARS AND TITANS: WHO WINS AND WHY

Betting Trends

  • The Bears finished their last seven games 5-2 against the spread last year.
  • The Titans won only twice as an underdog of 3 1/2 or more last season.
  • It's been under the total in 14 of the last 20 Titans games, and 11 of the 17 Titans games last season went under the total.
  • Tennessee is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight openers.
  • Bears games have gone over the total eight of the last 10 times against AFC teams.

Bears and Titans Line:  Bears by 3 1/2 (Over/under 44 1/2). Saturday's lines per Fan Duel and Draft Kings.

Bears On SI Call: Bears 20, Titans 16

Top Prop Bets: D'Andre Swift over 70 rushing yards +370 (DraftKings). Tony Pollard over 25 yards receiving +225 (DraftKings)

THREE KEYS FOR A BEARS VICTORY OVER THE TITANS

BEARS CLAIM RULE EMPHASIS WILL NOT CATCH THEM NAPPING

FRIDAY INJURY REPORT: BEARS HAVE D-LINE HEALTH CONCERNS

IT'S SACK TIME FOR MONTEZ SWEAT NO MATTER WHERE HE BEGINS PLAYS

The Weekend Picks

Steelers +3 1/2 at Falcons (O/U 44 1/2): Falcons 26, Steelers 19

Jaguars +3 1/2 at Dolphins (O/U 49 1/2): Dolphins 31, Jaguars 21*

Patriots at Bengals (O/U 40 1/2): Bengals 27, Patriots 13*

Texans -2 1/2 at Colts (O/U 48 1/2): Texans 21, Colts 19

Vikings -1 1/2 at Giants (O/U 41 1/2): Giants 21, Vikings 20

Panthers +3 1/2 at Saints (O/U 41 1/2): Saints 27, Panthers 17*

Cardinals +6 1/2 at Bills (O/U 47 1/2): Bills 23, Cardinals 20

Raiders +3 at Chargers (O/U 39 1/2): Chargers 24, Raiders 13

Broncos +5 1/2 at Seahawks (O/U 41 1/2): Broncos 19, Seahawks 17

Cowboys +2 1/2 at Browns (O/U 40 1/2): Cowboys 23, Browns 20

Commanders +3 1/2 at Buccaneers (O/U 42 1/2): Buccaneers 24, Commanders 16

Rams +4 1/2 at Lions (O/U 52 1/2): Lions 27, Rams 24

Jets +4 1/2 at 49ers (O/U 43 1/2): 49ers 27, Jets 20*

* Power plays

Fantasy Edge

If DJ Moore rates high on your plans at receiver but there are other options, it's a good game to use the other options. Not only is Moore being targeted by a rookie quarterback in his first start, but he's going to be facing cornerback L'Jarius Sneed most of the time.

The Titans do have a formidable group of cornerbacks and the only reason to think they would struggle is it's their first game in the scheme, but facing a rookie QB starting for the first time more than eliminates this handicap.

Keenan Allen and D'Andre Swift are better fantasy plays in this game as Allen is their slot receiver in a three-receiver set and the middle of the field is where the Titans' defensive personnel are least formidable. Swift, in his first starts each of the last two seasons had 144 yards rushing and 175 yards rushing for two different teams. Now it's a third different team. 

Another player Williams is likely to lean on extensively, who might be overlooked, is Gerald Everett. Their second tight end is the move target at this position and with so many targets at wide receiver who are threats, the Titans might not be able to devote enough attention to a tight end in coverage.

The Bears were No. 1 against the run last year but they may not initially be as formidable with second-year 3-technique Gervon Dexter playing after losing more experienced Justin Jones in free agency.  This isn't the best reason to have Pollard in the lineup, though.

For Tennessee, the best way to attack the Bears zone-heavy scheme is throwing to the backs under the coverage. Pollard and Tyjae Spears are both effective receivers and catch-and-run players. Even last year after the Bears defense had turned it around, teams were hurting them with passes to the backs.

The Bears have been undersold as a defense for the defensive component in fantasy ball by many analysts who bought into their unaddressed defensive end needs too much. The best way to score in fantasy ball is takeaways and the Bears tied for the NFL lead in interceptions last year in really what only was half a season of effort. Their takeaways skyrocketed once Montez Sweat's pressure was added to the mix.

For that reason, the Bears defense should be a play this week.

The Titans defense is not generally one anyone should use after a terrible 2023 season, but first overall picks in the draft are 4-23-1 since the NFL merger and are 0-14-1 since one of them last won their first career start. Then again, almost all of those 15 QBs were playing for the worst team in the league the previous year and did not have the advantage Williams owns of being with a team stocked with the talent the Bears apparently have.

MORE BEARS NEWS AND VIDEOS

SI FANTASY FOOTBALL TIPS AND NEWS

SI BEST BETS ON THE WEEK

  • Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.