Bear Digest

Bears and Vikings Fantasy Football Favorites and NFL Week 12 Picks

Defenses should rule the day in this Vikings and Bears matchup so adjust accordingly with starting or sitting Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold and others in fantasy football.

Gene Chamberlain

Jordan Addison can't make the catch after getting behind Tyrique Stevenson last season at Soldier Field in a 19-13 Vikings win.
Jordan Addison can't make the catch after getting behind Tyrique Stevenson last season at Soldier Field in a 19-13 Vikings win. / Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images
In this story:

It's a week to talk about defense in fantasy football, at least regarding the Bears and the Vikings.

In the real world of football, the Bears defense is faltering a bit and struggling all year with consistency against the run.

However, in fantasy ball they are a potential high scorer each week with their emphasis on takeaways and a better overall pass rush than they had last season. It has tailed off a bit as Montez Sweat has been tied up by several offenses after a year when no one seemed able to stop him.

The Bears have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. It's too bad this doesn't translate to reality. It's a major reason SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano has said to sit Sam Darnold this week.

In that regard, the Bears are not really a dominant team defensively for IDP leagues.

Still, their ability to keep teams out of the end zone with the league's best red zone defense, and the fourth-best rate on third downs should have most fantasy owners thinking of playing them against even the tougher opponents in the NFC North. Nemesis Green Bay couldn't go over 20 on them and they still have given up more than 21 to only the Cardinals.

On the other side, the Vikings this week would be a must play.

They're going against a rookie quarterback and now they have a little bit more of an idea how to defend Thomas Brown after seeing how he calls a game. Toss in the fact D'Andre Swift is playing with a bit of a groin injury and Keenan Allen injured his ankle in Friday's practice, and the Vikings defense should be able to play at a dominant level.

This is a Vikings defense No. 1 against the run but more importantly for fantasy football No. 1 in interceptions and No. 3 in sacks and they are facing a rookie QB who struggles with consistency.

All of this defensive talk might leak over into the betting angle as well. Even with some top offensive talent like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Rome Odunze and DJ Moore, these teams simply are not scoring a lot of points.

It's been under the total in seven of the last 10 Vikings games and four of the last five Bears games. Last year's totals were 22 and 32 points both teams combined.

Here are the players the start and sit individually in fantasy ball in the Bears and Vikings, and yes, there are some to play.

Start 'Em

1. WR Justin Jefferson

He's a rubber stamp for fantasy football unless injured. The Bears haven't faced him for a full competitive game since the last game between the teams in 2021. Anticipate the Vikings throwing up a couple deep ones to him over the middle or cover-2 beaters to the sidelines just to see if the DBs can even defend it, because Green Bay got away with one jump ball last week that was badly misplayed by two Bears, and then threw a shorter one that broke for 60 yards. And this week the Bears will have Jonathan Owens playing safety with Kevin Byard, and that can easily lead to miscommunications.

2. Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson

They just started to scratch the surface with Hockenson after his knee injury last year kept him out until two weeks ago. He has 40 catches for 398 yards and three TDs in his career against the Bears.

3. Vikings RB Aaron Jones

For his career, Jones has an impressive 4.84-yard average per carry against the Bears with 712 yards and seven rushing touchdowns in 13 games. He also has hurt them for 29 catches, four for touchdowns, and a 9.83-yard average per catch. That's an impressive yards per catch for a running back.

4. Bears TE Cole Kmet

Kmet's nine catches against the Vikings in two games last year are an indication they'll lean to him as a hot read target or in the red zone or even in the screen game.

5. Bears WR DJ Moore

Last year they leaned heavily on wide receiver screen against the Vikings. In fact, it was more than heavily, it was ridiculous how much they used this play. And they still like running them. Moore is the receiver du jour for this and if you doubt they'll be trying to run these, they brought Collin Johnson up to the 53-man roster and one of his fortes is blocking on those screens as a 6-foot-6, 222-pound wide receiver.

Sit 'Em

1. Bears RB D'Andre Swift

A back can't be too productive with a groin injury. The Bears have Swift listed questionable and when speed is your thing as much as it is for Swift, it's best to wait for a different week when he's healthier.

2. Bears WR Keenan Allen

The ankle injury he suddenly had Friday at practice isn't a good sign. They also have brought up receiver Collin Johnson and he could fill in if needed, but they had already brought up Johnson before the injury occurred. Allen hit the Vikings defense with 18 catches for 215 yards last year while with the Chargers. This isn't your 2023 Chargers offense, by a long shot.

3. Vikings QB Sam Darnold

One good reason not to play Darnold is he is at his best against blitzing defenses and this Bears defense is anything but a blitzing defense. They'll go out of their way not to blitz and will disguise and play zone. Darnold is going to need to be exact with his throws against a pass defense as strong as the one the Bears have and it's not a good matchup for him.

4. Bears QB Caleb Williams

Those last few minutes when he drove the Bears down the field can be classified as ancient history now. Williams has had only one good game in his last four and although it was against a good Packers defense, they don't rate at the same level as this Vikings defense. He's completed less than 60% against the blitz and likely to face excessive blitzing.

5. Vikings WR Jordan Addison

He hit the Bears with nine catches in two games last year but only for 67 yards, and had a TD pass in there. He's going to get mostly Terell Smith and Tyrique Stevenson to his side, unless he goes into the slot. Then it would be Kyler Gordon. Addison is a borderline play. With the other two targets and Sam Darnold not expected to have a big day, lay off of this receiver.

6. Bears WR Rome Odunze

Beating one-on-one coverage is something Odunze has a knack for along the sidelines but it's like he said this week. If Williams isn't having a good day, he's not going to have a good day. It's pretty simple. Odunze might get a few catches late but the Vikings' defense should rule the day.

Defense

The Vikings are the play after giving up 33 points total to their last three opponents, but even the Bears might be an option on defense, as well. It's just that the Bears defense is opposed by an offense putting up some bigger numbers.

BEARS AND VIKINGS: WHO WINS AND WHY

BEARS PUT ADRIAN COLBERT RIGHT TO WORK ON GAME DAY ROSTER

NO APOLOGIES FOR BEARS FROM LEAGUE FOR PACKERS' BLOCKED FG

THREE KEYS TO WEEK 12 CHICAGO BEARS UPSET OF MINNESOTA VIKINGS

If you're looking for IDP tips, Jonathan Greenard or Andrew Van Ginkel. Both were shrewd moves by the Vikings as players who fit what they're doing under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. And safety Camryn Bynum has three interceptions. A rookie who throws late and over the middle is likely to find his hands instead of his receiver's.

The Betting Window

Bears Line: Vikings by 3 1/2, over/under 39 1/2 (Fan Duel)

Chicago Bears On SI Bears Picks to Date: 8-2 straight up, 6-4 against the spread, 5-5 over/under

Chicago Bears On SI Bears Pick: Vikings 23, Bears 8

Around the NFL Last Week: 8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread, 2-2 power plays

Around the NFL to Date: 106-53 straight up (.667), 89-68-2 ATS (.572), 24-20 power plays (.550)

This Week's NFL Games and Picks:

  • Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Giants: Buccaneers 27, Giants 20
  • Patriots +7 1/2 at Dolphins: Dolphins 28, Patriots 19
  • Titans +7 1/2 at Texans: Texans 34, Titans 17*
  • Chiefs -10 1/2 at Panthers: Chiefs 30, Panthers 17
  • Cowboys +10 1/2 at Commanders: Commanders 24, Cowboys 17
  • Broncos -5 1/2 at Raiders: Broncos 27, Raiders 24
  • 49ers + 5 1/2 at Packers: Packers 27, 49ers 20*
  • Cardinals -1 1/2 at Seahawks: Seahawks 23, Cardinals 20*
  • Eagles - 2 1/2 at Rams: Eagles 26, Rams 20*
  • Ravens -2 1/2 at Chargers: Ravens 20, Chargers 17

*Power play

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published |Modified
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.