Bear Digest

Bears Fantasy Football Plays and NFL Best Bets for Week 9

Who to start and who to sit in fantasy football for Sunday's game between the Bears and Cardinals and picks against the point spread around the NFL for Week 9.

Gene Chamberlain

Cole Kmet coughs up the ball for an interception in a Bears loss at home against the Cardinals in 2021.
Cole Kmet coughs up the ball for an interception in a Bears loss at home against the Cardinals in 2021. / Quinn Harris-Imagn Images
In this story:

More probably needs to be made of how the Bears defense held Jayden Daniels to four field goals until tipped pass ended the game.

It hasn't escaped the eyes of fantasy football experts.

When looking at Kyler Murray as a play against the Bears defense, it might be best for fantasy owners to go with what SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano has suggested and that's sit the Arizona QB after two big wins.

Fabiano pointed out how the Bears defense has allowed only Jayden Daniels to score more than 17 fantasy points this season among quarterbacks, and that he needed the Hail Mary gaffe by Tyrique Stevenson to do it. Let's not forget the assist for coach Matt Eberflus when he decided not to guard the sidelines on the play prior to the Hail Mary.

The Bears secondary remained viable even without starters Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon playing and with Josh Blackwell and Elijah Hicks in the lineup. They were down three men plus the top backup in London against Jacksonville, and this week could be down two with Gordon returning and the strong possibility existing that Stevenson will absorb some form of disciplinary punishment.

Yet, they keep on defending.

It might be best to forget about passers all together in this game, at least for fantasy football.

Caleb Williams is recommended by Fabiano as a starter this week. It might not be a wise choice.

"Williams was awful last week despite a great matchup on paper, scoring just 9.3 points in a loss to the Commanders," he wrote. "Still, he had put up 17-plus points in three of his previous four games, and a contest in Arizona is favorable."

How favorable is it really?

Starting left tackle Braxton Jones is out, backup left tackle Kiran Amegadjie is out. Instead, they'll start Larry Borom, who has been on IR all year.

And Williams is facing an unorthodox defense. Williams has had a passer rating in the 40s when under pressure in road games, according to Pro Football Focus.

The variables don't say this is a passer's game, even if the Cardinals pass defense has been porous and ranks 26th.

BEARS AND CARDINALS: WHO WINS AND WHY

Here's who to start and sit in Sunday's Bears redemption game at Arizona.

Start 'Em

1. Bears RB D'Andre Swift

He's the league's dirty little secret at running back as he's ranked way back at No. 11 among backs by Fabiano this week. He rates fourth in yards after the catch in the NFL among all players and has 533 yards from scrimmage over the last four games. The only thing that makes it less obvious to fantasy owners is how the Bears take him out and put either Roschon Johnson in or Doug Kramer at the goal line so he isn't scoring a lot of touchdowns. Maybe if given the chance he might. At least he'd do better than Kramer.

2. Cardinals RB James Conner

He ranks third in the league in yards after the catch besides being a legitimate force as a running back and has 712 all-purpose yards. If they get the field spread out against a Bears defense that wants to play pass coverage, then he could churn out big-time yardage. The Bears have been good against opponents in the red zone but teams try to keep attacking their tight pass coverage instead of going after their run defense.

3. Cardinals TE Trey McBride

The Bears defense needs to keep its eyes on both Murray and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., and the linebackers need to watch Murray and James Conner. It's going to leave McBride open on occasion. Last week, Daniels hit Zach Ertz seven times for 77 yards. Ertz felt young again, or at least looked it. McBride is young and could exploit the soft underbelly of the Bears coverage.

4. Bears TE Cole Kmet

There's a good reason Matt Eberflus looked at the stats and said after last week's game they needed to target tight ends and running backs more. He wasn't criticizing his offensive coordinator there. It was on Williams for not checking it down or looking past the wideouts in his progression. Kmet had one target. This won't happen again against a Cardinals scheme that could get caught out of position to properly tackle a runaway truck coming downhill on a short pass.

CAN BEARS REBOUND FROM LAST WEEK'S DEVASTATING DEFEAT?

IF BEARS PUNISH TYRIQUE STEVENSON WHY NOT SHANE WALDRON TOO

BEARS SECONDARY HEALTH IMPROVES BUT O-LINE LOSES BRAXTON JONES

BEARS BEST POSITIONED TO DO DAMAGE TO CARDINALS

5. Bears WR Keenan Allen

The middle short area and short right are where Allen can be found most often and those are areas of the field Arizona's defense has problems defending. The connection between Allen and Williams continues to grow and extending drives on third downs is important in this game to keep the Cardinals' explosive attack sidelined. Looking for precedent against Arizona? Good luck. Allen has been in the league forever but has never faced the Cardinals.

6. Bears WR DJ Moore

Moore has six catches for 47 yards the last two games. Of course the odds favor a breakout for him after that, but he's had 27 yards or less in three of the last four games. That's a tough trend to buck. Williams just hasn't trusted him enough to be open for anticipatory throws. Sean Murphy-Bunting and the Cardinals cornerbacks might make it difficult to put up huge numbers but Moore should find a way to contribute.

7. Cardinals WR Greg Dortch

If you wanted a sleeper starter this wouldn't be a bad choice. Dortch had two catches for 45 yards against the Bears last season and their defense can't defend underneath as well if they're back looking to stop Harrison.

8. Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Pro Football Focus is recommending Harrison be benched by fantasy owners this week because he's not as good against zone coverage as he is man to man. And the Bears are zone masters. He's actually good enough against zone to be starting in fantasy ball so ignore the analytics on this one but don't expect huge numbers, just decent enough ones.

Sit 'Em

1. Bears QB Caleb Williams

The pressure and road stats weigh too heavily against starting him. They really need a "superman" type performance from him to get back on track but he has a 45.09 passer rating when pressured while passing in road games according to PFF statistics, and a 66.5 passer rating in all road games regardless of the situation. There are too many external issues to keep someone from thinking he'll reverse all of this. Once he starts to break through with numbers on the road, then he'd be a play there, as well.

2. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

If there is a reason to play him it's the dual threat he provides. However, the Bears' pass defense has stood up whether facing Daniels, C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence, or pocket passers like Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton. Murray's consecutive strong games aren't enough to suggest he can put up big numbers against the best defense in the red zone or at passer rating against.

3. Bears WR Rome Odunze

Thoughts are he could break out suddenly. It's always a catch or two but nothing big. Odunze does seem to have Williams' eye late in games, though. Until he gets consistently big numbers, he's not a play.

4. Cardinals WR Michael Wilson

If Harrison is held in check and Murray can't put up big numbers, it stands to reason Wilson might get a few more receptions than normal. He has 21 in eight games, but rarely gets more than 12 yards. Still, this type of receiver is the one to get under the coverage and pick up yards against their zone. It's just that the Bears haven't even given up yards and catches to receivers like Wilson to any great degree and Wilson wouldn't be on anyone's fantasy radar anyway.

SPORTS ILLUSTRATED PICKS FOR THE WEEK

Defense

The smart money for team defense sits with the Bears but it's still a risky play because of the injury factor with Montez Sweat and with Jaquan Brisker being out, and with Gordon just returning from an injury.

If someone stands out for IDP leagues, it's definitely Cardinals safety Buddy Baker. The slightest errors by Williams and Baker will be there. It seems their defense is designed to let him roam free underneath the free safety so he can get to the ball or make tackles and big plays.

The Betting Window

Bears On SI Record in Bears Games: 6-1 straight up, 5-2 against the spread, 4-3 over/under.

This Week's Bears Prediction: Cardinals 26, Bears 17

Last Week Around the NFL: 10-5 straight up, 5-10 ATS, 2-2 power plays

Around the NFL to Date: 78-42 straight up (.650), 66-52-2 ATS (.559), 17-15 power plays (.531)

This Week's NFL Games and Picks:

  • Broncos +9 at Ravens: Ravens 27, Broncos 13*
  • Dolphins +6 1/2 at Bills: Bills 20, Dolphins 14
  • Commanders -4 at Giants: Commanders 20, Giants 17
  • Raiders +7 at Bengals: Bengals 23, Raiders 13
  • Cowboys +3 1/2 at Falcons: Cowboys 34, Falcons 31
  • Chargers -1 1/2 at Browns: Browns 19, Chargers 17
  • Saints -7 1/2 at Panthers: Saints 24, Panthers 17
  • Patriots +3 1/2 at Titans: Patriots 19, Titans 16
  • Jaguars +7 1/2 at Eagles: Eagles 28, Jaguars 20*
  • Lions -3 at Packers: Lions 28, Packers 17 
  • Rams -1 1/2 at Seahawks: Rams 26, Seahawks 23 
  • Colts +5 at Vikings: Vikings 31, Colts 21*
  • Buccaneers +9 at Chiefs: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 20
  • Bengals +5 1/2 at Ravens: Ravens 33, Bengals 20*

**Week 9 Thursday night game

*Power Play

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.