Bear Digest

Bears Finally Have Right Idea But Right People Is the Question

Analysis: The Bears finally seem to realize the path to the playoffs is being better on offense but the question is whether they brought in all the people capable of getting them there.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams leads the quarterbacks through warmups during Bears minicamp. Their playoff chances could hinge mostly on how well they've improved the offense.
Caleb Williams leads the quarterbacks through warmups during Bears minicamp. Their playoff chances could hinge mostly on how well they've improved the offense. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
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The Bears and a top-10 offense rarely have gone hand in hand.

Definitely top 10 in rushing, definitely top 10 in throwing interceptions or three-and-outs, but not in overall offense.

They're not looking good for this statistical finish again in 2024 according to NFL.com deputy editor Gennaro Filice, even after bringing in Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett and D'Andre Swift in free agency and drafting Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams.

Filice's prediction for the top 10 offenses in the league includes Detroit in third and Green Bay in seventh but no mention of the Bears.

This would take time playing together. Green Bay is held with such high regard but didn't finish as a top-10 offense last year. He sees this as the case now because of the quarterback and receivers getting on the same page through time on task.

"With the high-level quarterbacking Jordan Love showcased in the second half of his debut season as the starter, it's easy to get intoxicated with this young offense's immense upside," Filice wrote.

It doesn't mean the end of the world for the Bears if they can't rise from 20th on offense to 10th or better. Or does it?

Even with scoring down across the league in four of the past five seasons, the general trend is offense wins more games.

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Whether your standard is top 10 total yards or top 10 in scoring, it's critical to be there or in that range if you're going to be a playoff team.

In 2023, the top eight teams in scoring all made the playoffs and the top nine teams in offensive yardage made it. In fact, 11 of the top 12 in yards made it.

In 2022, eight of the top 10 teams in yardage made it to the playoffs and nine of the top 10 in scoring.

In 2021, nine of the top 11 in yardage made it and eight of the top 10 in scoring.

Get the offense into shape, put points on the board and its the surest way into the playoffs.

Defense matters, especially in points allowed, but yardage not so much. The Jets were third in yards allowed, the Panthers fourth and the Patriots seventh last season and not only did they fail to make the playoffs but they were putrid teams. The top 12 included the Falcons (11th), Bears (12th) and Saints (13th). Obviously the Bears didn't make it and they crushed the Falcons.

Defense sets it up and makes it possible. They are the tone setters. The way to break through and make the playoffs is by building a consistent and productive offense. 

The Bears' finish last year of 18th in scoring was the best they managed since winning the division in 2018. Their finish of 20th in offensive yards was their best since they were 15th to end the Jay Cutler era.

They haven't been top 10 in yardage since Marc Trestman's first team finished eighth in 2013 and they wasted that one by being so bad on defense (30th in yards and points allowed) that they offset their rare finish.

They haven't finished top 10 in both scoring and yardage since the 1995 team with Erik Kramer that finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs.

At least with their changes on offense, and with a defense already taking a better approach, the Bears appear to have the right goals.

Actually moving up that ladder into the upper echelon of offenses isn't easy, though. Eight of the top 10 teams in offensive yards were in the top 10 the previous year, as well.

The Bears are going to need to kick the door down to break into that elite group of offenses, and it says why they were so aggressive in pursuing offensive talent.

What it doesn't explain is hiring an offensive coordinator whose Seattle attacks got into the top 10 in scoring once in three years and finished no higher than 13th in yardage.

Shane Waldron will have much to prove.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.