Bear Digest

Bears Given Only One-Third Chance of Making Playoffs

ESPN's power index metric rates the Bears as a 33% chance at the playoffs and worse than many other teams who currently own worse records.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams leaps out of bounds but takes a cheap shot without a penalty, anyway, in the win by the Bears over Carolina.
Caleb Williams leaps out of bounds but takes a cheap shot without a penalty, anyway, in the win by the Bears over Carolina. / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images
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The New York Jets just fired their coach and have a 2-3 record but they have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Bears, says ESPN.

The daunting task of overcoming Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota in the NFC North keeps the analytics people from being too excited about what the Bears have done to date. It can't help to have a rookie QB like Caleb Williams, even if he has played better of late. Rookie QBs are rarely dependable.

Even with a 3-2 record and a dominant performance last week against Carolina, ESPN has determined, using its "football power index" that the Bears have only a 33% chance to make the playoffs.

This is worse than Denver (2-3), Indianapolis (2-3) and Cincinnati, which has won only one game.

The Bears have a 33% chance at the playoffs while Denver is at 34%, Indianapolis 41% and Cincinnati 35%.

MOST IMPROVED ASPECT OF BEARS IS EASY TO SEE

In the NFC, ESPN says the Bears have a worse chance than Arizona (35%) even though they are 3-2 and the Cardinals are 2-3.

However, the Bears do rate a better shot than Seattle (28%), which has the same 3-2 record. The only teams in the NFC the Bears have better shots at the playoffs than are the Seahawks, Rams (10%), Giants (7%) and Panthers (1%).

BEARS AND CALEB WILLIAMS REVERSE ATTITUDES IN POWER RANKINGS

WHAT TO WONDER ABOUT THE BEARS AS THEY MAKE NOISE IN NFC NORTH

WHERE BEARS SEE THE GAME COMING TOGETHER FOR CALEB WILLIAMS

In terms of winning the NFC North, ESPN gives the Bears a 6% chance. The Packers are at 13%, Lions 30% and Vikings 51%.

Although the Bears are given such a low chance of winning the division or making the playoffs based on ESPN's FPI metric, they somehow rate 18th overall in the league on that ESPN FPI scale.

They rank higher on the scale than Arizona, the Chargers, Colts, Broncos and Browns and Dolphins, which makes one wonder if they actually even did use a scale to determine any of this. 

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.