Bear Digest

Bears Most Likely to Be Involved in Draft Day Trades

Analysis: Several Bears are in contract or positional situations making them more likely to be dealt away during the draft.

Gene Chamberlain

Khalil Herbert has some impressive statistics but lack of durability and his contract status in Year 4 could make him trade bait.
Khalil Herbert has some impressive statistics but lack of durability and his contract status in Year 4 could make him trade bait. / Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
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Like it or not, much of the tenure of GM Ryan Poles has revolved around trades.

Poles came to the Bears insisting what all GMs say.

"What am I about and what's my philosophy?" he said at the introductory press conference. "We're gonna build through the draft."

While he's still trying to establish this, he has traded for Montez Sweat, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Chase Claypool and traded away Chase Claypool, Justin Fields, Roquan Smith, Robert Quinn and Khalil Mack.

It would be difficult to argue the team they have now was largely the result of the draft. The Bears have shaped a team under Poles around these trades and they continue adding the talent through the draft and free agency. They'll take a huge step toward building it through the draft when they select Caleb Williams, but it hasn't happened yet.

Of the trades, Sweat, Smith, Quinn and Claypool were done during the season, Claypool both coming and going. Moore, Allen, Mack and Fields were part of the run up to the draft.

Poles has made seven trades during the draft to gain picks or jump up and draft someone he wanted, but the one thing Poles has yet to do is include a player in a trade during the draft.

There's a first time for everything but it usually takes a player in a specific position during their career and a team with the ability to replace the traded player. When you trade a player, you create a need which must be filled in the draft unless he is roster surplus.

Here are Bears who rate highest for tradeablity in this draft, although it doesn't necessarily mean Poles will go this route.

5. CB Terell Smith

When you've got too much of something, you can always deal the excess away for what you need. In this case, it seems highly doubtful they would trade the fifth-round cornerback pick from last year because he played so effectively when they did get him into games and because, as Matt Eberflus always points out, you need as many cornerbacks and pass rushers as you can find. It's a poisition where players get injured with greater frequency because they're moving fast and need to make quick, athletic moves. Depth is essential there.

Smith had a solid 93.9 passer rating against, according to Sportradar. And he was targeted quite a bit when he played, 46 times. Having Smith ensures someone capable plays the outside if either Jaylon Johnson or Tyrique Stevenson go out. The Bears have shown a great deal of interest in cornerbacks throughout this draft process. They could be aiming for someone they've noticed in a later round in order to build the depth they would lose by trading Smith. It's more than likely they would want to preserve what they have and build on it as they're more about developing young talent now than trying to win at all costs before their players are too old. The truth is that while Smith shows talent, he hasn't yet built up trade value. Trade likelihood: Very Low.

4. WR Velus Jones Jr.

As a receiver or as a punt returner, Jones hasn't established value. However, a team without someone who is an established kick returner might covet a receiver who ran a 4.31-second 40-yard dash at the combine. The speed leaves open the possibility someone could still make a receiver out of Jones. More than that, Jones actually had the highest kick return average in the league last year for anyone who made at least 15 returns, at 27.2 yards. This was lower by 0.4 yards than as a rookie, when he was fourth for anyone with the same 15 returns or more.

With a new offensive coordinator, it's more than likely the Bears would like to see what Jones can do in an altered offense as a receiver before they decide to either trade him or cut bait. He has had flashes, but they've resulted in either spectacular fireworks or total disasters. Trade likelihood: Low.

3. RB Khalil Herbert

They brought in D'Andre Swift in free agency at $8 million a year after David Montgomery left to take $6 million a year with the Lions. In the meantime, Herbert didn't seize upon his chance for one season to be Montgomery's replacement. He appeared in one less game than he had as Montgomery's backup, had three more carries and averaged a respectable 4.6 yards a carry but it was a year after he led the NFL's running backs at 5.7 yards a carry. He didn't prove he was a lead back and his deficiencies as a receiver were apparent at times, although he did this better than his earlier numbers suggested he would. What Herbert proved is he's still a player to split carries or be the backup to a starter, Swift.

With only this year left on his contract, it might be better to include him in a draft trade if there is a buyer. From his standpoint, he could get to a team where he might have a chance to get more playing time or to get to a better contract extension situation because the Bears seem unlikely to devote much money to a second back at the position when they wouldn't go to $7 million a year for Montgomery and are paying Swift $8 million a year now. The other reason is they have Roschon Johnson, who is going into his second year. On the other hand, they saw last year how you need at least three backs. They had actually lined up four backs in Herbert, Johnson, D'Onta Foreman and Travis Homer, yet they had to sign former Bear Darrynton Evans for very significant reps when they broke their 14-game losing streak. The bottom line here has nothing to do with Swift and that is the running back market has bottomed out and people don't really trade for them. Trade likelihood: Low.

2. T Braxton Jones

Jones needed to improve his pass blocking last year and did. He has done nothing to show his fast start with 17 games and All-Rookie team status were flukes. Not many fifth-round tackles can step in and start effectively from Day 1. However, he hasn't been a smashing success and with as many as eight tackles possible for Round 1 of the draft, it's always possible the Bears would trade him and draft someone with a higher upside. This is a classic case of creating a need in the draft and solving it, and doesn't seem likely considering they have a few other needs to address before they start creating them and using draft picks to fill them. Also, he's not in a contract year. Trade likelihood: Low.

1. G Teven Jenkins

Teven Jenkins is in the contract season, always a prime time for trades. He has been reported as a potential part of a trade in the past as a player Ryan Pace brought in as general manager. His current GM is a former offensive lineman and he is always looking closely at the players at these positions in the draft. Jenkins has high value as a player who grades out well when he plays. He has position versatility with starts at both guards and a background at tackle. Pro Football Focus graded him 14th last year among guards after he was graded third overall in 2022 when they called him the most improved Bears player. PFF must not have been convinced by Jenkins' 2022 performance and ranked him 24th among guards for 2023 when he still rated 10 spots above where they had ranked him in preseason.

Countering the high trade value is the fact he has had a difficult time being healthy. He has been in only 31 of a possible 51 games and started just 24. Because of his injury situations in the past, his value isn't what it should be for a player who has produced when given the chance. Trade likelihood: Medium.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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