Bear Digest

Bears Offensive Trend Indicates It's Time to Try Something Different with Their Play-Caller

Analysis: Consistent Bears offensive failure in first and third quarters indicts their approach more than the execution or QB Caleb Williams, and means it's time for change.

Gene Chamberlain

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams reacts following the 29-9 loss against the Arizona Cardinals last week.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams reacts following the 29-9 loss against the Arizona Cardinals last week. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
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The question persists, is it Caleb Williams or is it the Bears?

The problems Williams has experienced as a rookie passer appears a combination of factors, ranging from his own issues quickly going through his progressions and also his sloppy passing mechanics.

However, a struggling offensive line contributes greatly.

But Williams' breakdown per quarter suggests something else could be at work.

Scoring Struggles to Start Each Half

The Bears have had scoring problems all year in the first quarter of games. Williams has a passer rating of 81.6 then. It's not even his worst passer rating by quarter, not by a long shot.

The third quarter is when Williams really struggles. He has a 65.7 passer rating then, according to NFL.com. His 55.7% completion rate in third quarters is his worst by quarter, as well.

However, his fourth-quarter passer rating is now  a respectable 90.5. This was a real problem for former Bears quarterback Justin Fields, as he ranked bottom five in passer rating for fourth quarters among starters throughout last season and was even worse than many backups.

Frequently a higher fourth-quarter passer rating can be the result of throwing passes underneath coverage in an attempt to play catch-up football while trailing double digits.

The Bears have only been in that situation once, and it was last week.

Strong Fourth-Quarter Efforts

NFL.com tracks fourth-quarter passer rating in games when teams are within seven points and Williams' rating is 85 then--still not terrible considering the offense's overall performance.

When a team comes out and struggles immediately in games and then struggles again after they've had halftime to make adjustments to their plan, it only points at one place for a problem.

The offensive coordinator is not getting the job done when it comes to planning out a course of attack.

Earlier in the season much was made about how Waldron did not subscribe to a common 15-play script going into games.

"I mean, we always have openers that we practice and that's a big part of it," coach Matt Eberflus said. "So we have several plays listed as openers. So openers are plays that you're going to use on first and second down and then obviously you go to your third-down script based on the distances. That's what pretty much everybody does."

But everybody doesn't struggle in first quarters and third quarters like the Bears.

Eberflus said at the time that they made changes after leadership among players met with coaches.

"That was just more of a communicating with the leadership of the offense with Shane and myself to be able to put those (plays) in order," Eberflus said. "So we put those in order, so the guys knew exactly what Play 1 was, Play 2 and so forth and what the first third-down plays were and kind of working that way.

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"So that's an important part of it. Guys can practice that. They can rehearse it mentally in their minds. They can rehearse it obviously in the walk-throughs that they did prior to the game and just basically putting those in order so that’s really all it was. But again, it’s just about good communication. Guys working together to get to the right answer. Not necessarily your answer. But it’s always going to be the right answer for the group."

If Williams' play is better in second and fourth quarters like it is, and they're now scripting plays in a way more conducive to what players can execute without success, there's only one other problem it could be.

The game plans they're coming in with and the changes they make at halftime are weak or confusing and it contribute to the problem.

No Vote of Confidence for QB

Waldron didn't exactly throw Williams under the bus this week when assessing the situation with poor starts. However, he definitely didn't come out and say Williams is playing well in those situations.

"I think for Caleb every week is going to be a new set of circumstances that he's dealing with," Waldron said. "Different defensive structures. Different blitz patterns. All the things that play out.

"So for him, each week, just continue to work playing with clean eyes, clean feet, playing fast in the pocket right there and it's something that–looking through all the different young quarterbacks–there have been some ups and downs as the process has taken place. And the thing that gives me all the confidence in the world in Caleb is his dedication to his craft, the way he comes in to work every single day. And so we'll keep working and coaching him and the guys surrounding him, working their butts off to get this thing going and to get this thing going in a consistent manner."

When coach Matt Eberflus sought an offensive coordinator, he told everyone he wanted someone who could adjust their game plan as games went along and especially be effective in fourth quarters.

Luke Getsy's Bears offenses had a pattern of early success, followed by mediocre results and Eberflus didn't want this because most games get decided in fourth quarters. Getsy's first Bears offense actually led the NFL in scoring on first drives at 70.6% according to Warren Sharp with Sharp Football.

They haven't scored a touchdown this year on opening drives and have 10 first-quarter points.

So it would appear Eberflus got exactly what he wanted in an offensive coordinator.

He has one who adapts as the game goes along after he had one who could score early but didn't adapt.

The problem is, the tradeoff has been they don't score early now before they get into games and adapt.

Scoring Only Late Is No Better Than Only Early

Either model is an invitation for defeat in the NFL.

They need an offense capable of scoring consistently whenever it has the ball.

More importantly, they need game plans capable of getting them points early so they don't need to work as hard later in games.

When times got bad for the Bears offense under Matt Nagy, he changed play callers. He did it, he had Bill Lazor do it for a while. This came from the years in Kansas City when Andy Reid would switch in the same manner.

Considering the consistent failure of Waldron's offenses to produce anything coming out of the locker room in either half, but to come on in second and fourth quarters, perhaps it's time for Eberflus to borrow a page from Nagy and change play-calling duties.

Passing game coordinator Thomas Brown has play-calling experience as a former Panthers offensive coordinator. It might be time to let him test doing it in Waldron's offense.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.