Bear Digest

Bears Playoff Chances Developing into a True Coin Toss

One analytical look at Bears playoff chances has determined what Vegas odds are saying: The Bears in the playoffs? Flip a coin.

Gene Chamberlain

Tremaine Edmunds isn't giving up the ball after an interception as the Bears defense celebrates a turnover against Detroit.
Tremaine Edmunds isn't giving up the ball after an interception as the Bears defense celebrates a turnover against Detroit. / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
In this story:

The Bears attaining playoff status in 2024 is perceived as a coin flip.

At least according to Pro Football Focus betting and calculations, the chances are less than 50% but their chances are better than all but 14 other teams.

This puts them right on the edge for the playoffs.

In its market-implied power rankings targeting bettors, PFF has Bears chances for the playoffs at 43.28%, which ranks tied for 15th. This, even though PFF has the Bears rated tied for 17th overall as a team in terms of point spread rating.

They've calculated Bears chances at a Super Bowl win to be 2.51%, to win the NFC championship at 4.99% and to finish ahead of the Packers, Lions and Vikings in the NFC North at 19.82%.

PFF assigns teams point spread team ratings and that's where they are 17th at minus-0.9

ONE CALEB WILLIAMS QUALITY MOST IMPRESSING BEARS GM RYAN POLES

THE BEARS POSITION GROUP TOTALLY DISRESPECTED

CHICAGO BEARS ROOKIE PROGRESS TRACKER

They grade quarterback Caleb Williams as being worth 2.5 points toward their weekly given point spread and that leaves him 21st in this category.

The Packers and the Lions, within the division, count for more impact on the point spread than Williams.

At least their ranking in PFF’s look at betting rates their chances for the playoffs at better than what CBS Sports determined earlier this week. Two analysts looked at their chances and determined they wouldn’t hit the 8 ½ over/under win total.

The chances being reflected by PFF's calculations do not meet the level suggested earlier by betting sites. Earlier this offseason, FanDuel 's implied probability for the Bears in the playoffs was 52.4%.

The coin toss scenario is reflected in FanDuel's current Bears playoff odds. They come in almost at 50-50. The line pays at -115 to make the playoffs and -105 that they don't make the playoffs.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOn Maven

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.