Bear Digest

Best Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Plays and NFL Picks

Who to start and who to sit in Thursday night's Bears and Seahawks game with weekly NFL picks against the line.

Gene Chamberlain

The Bears and Seahawks play on Thursday night and the Bears are looking to win for the fourth time in their last five Thursday night games.
The Bears and Seahawks play on Thursday night and the Bears are looking to win for the fourth time in their last five Thursday night games. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
In this story:

Fantasy football doesn't mimic real football—it is real football.

Everything happening in a real game impacts fantasy points in some way and the Bears come into their penultimate game this season sitting in their usual insignificant position.

They are punching bags at the moment and it's a chance for some fantasy players in daily games or deep in playoffs to take advantage with two plays. One is obvious and the other not so much.

SI.com's fantasy expert, Michael Fabiano has the running back play of the week as someone who might not have even been on most teams after a few weeks of fantasy play this year and that's Zach Charbonnet.

Fabiano dug up this fantasy stat: The Bears have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last eight weeks.

Teams that stick with the running game and mix in the pass against the Bears always seem to benefit. They've given up 10 touchdowns rushing in those eight games.

The Seahawks definitely are a team capable of falling into a trap and throwing too much on the Bears, who still have a secondary with key healthy players like Jaylon Johnson, Kevin Byard and Kyler Gordon. However, when they're all preoccupied with the run, with needing to be physical in a lost season and in a meaningless game, the overall impact is too much for the Bears defense to handle.

The other name to think of is an obvious one and that's Jaxon Smith-Njigba. You could even throw in DK Metcalf because anyone capable of going deep or taking a pass over the middle has been destroying the Bears defense. Without Jaquan Bisker or Elijah Hicks, Jonathan Owens has been exposed on deep passes and was last week.

It's not lack of talent hurting the Bears secondary so much as it is the lack of communication between players who normally aren't manning the deep protection and also the lack of consistent pass rush. Gervon Dexter has been missed the last three weeks because his interior push helped make Montez Sweat better. His return this week is a game-time decision but he's obviously not going to be entirely healthy after a knee injury so the Bears' pass rush is likely to be slow to the mark again .

Here's who to start and who to sit from Bears and Seahawks in Week 17.

Start 'Em

1. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Have to differ from what Fabiano said somewhat. The running games have hurt the Bears but they have been the diversion. Then the passing game delivers the death blow each week. Smith-Njigba is exactly the type of back to give them problems because of his knack for losing the coverage over the middle against zone and then turning up in spots with room to run after the catch. He's an Amon-Ra St. Brown type who can play off the Bears' concerns about DK Metcalf.

2. Seahawks WR DK Metcalf

Don't leave out the main weapon. After seeing how Jameson Williams was able to simply go straight down the field and beat an overmatched Bears secondary easily for an 82-yard bomb, the Seahawks will be sure to test this because Metcalf not only has the speed to do the same but if the ball is underthrown he'll go up after it. Anticipate several big plays from him. Metcalf should be invulnerable to Jaylon Johnson if they match their best coverage corner on him because his size is just too great at 6-4, 235.

3. Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet

Can't quite give him the emphasis Fabiano does but he should come up over 100 yards if given the chance. The Bears defense has leaked and then given way against the run throughout the year. One of the biggest overassessments made by Ryan Poles was how he thought Dexter was ready to be a standout defensive tackle. They needed someone like Justin Jones was last year, if not him, until Dexter was entirely ready against the run to be a force. He already has the pass rush part down. Charbonnet is as good as many teams have starting, and averages more than half a yard more than injured Kenneth Walker does when he plays. Maybe the only reason not to go all in thinking Charbonnet will have a huge game is the fact Seattle is 30th in rushing. But the Bears defense has made even the worst running attacks look formidable.

4. QB Geno Smith

Smith's biggest problem this year has been throwing interceptions. He's practically throwing as many interceptions as incompletions. That doesn't really hurt you in fantasy ball too much and when your completion rate has been around 70% all year then no one in fantasy ball really cares about a few picks. He'll pile up yardage and scores against a Bears secondary that has been totally ineffective since Matt Eberflus' time as defensive play calling ended.

5. Seahawks TE Noah Fant

The Seahawks normally don't rely on tight ends much but the temptation will be too great here because the Bears haven't found an opposing tight end they couldn't elevate to All-Pro status.

6. Bears QB Caleb Williams

Williams has been able to chalk up a ton of stats in the second half in comeback mode and it should be no different against a Seattle secondary with the right ingredients but complete inconsistency. To see Williams as only a QB getting cheap yardage isn't the issue here because fantasy owers will take the stats whether this is true or not. Throwing 326 straight passes without an interception is pretty remarkable whether you're doing it against softer coverage or not. And Williams' ability to raise his yards per attempt in some of these games shows he's making progress.

7. Bears WR Keenan Allen

Much to the Bears' chagrin, Allen is now building that strong connection with Williams. Just in time for him to become a free agent who won't be retained. It would make no sense to keep a third receiver for big cash when they can use the money to help fortify the line on both sides of the ball, which is their real weakness. You can always find a player like Allen in free agency at a lower rate, a slot receiver who has good experience getting open to help bail out the QB. But Allen has come on strong, with his Bears highs last week in catches and yards after a strong game the previous week.

8. Bears WR DJ Moore

He's the type of receiver who gives the Seahawks problems because he can turn up in numerous spots in the formation and keeps them from tagging him with stronger coverage players. Moore has 43 catches in the last six games and never less than six catches in a game, so they're getting him the ball. It's a matter of getting it to him where he's able for yards after catch, which is his strength.

9. Bears TE Cole Kmet

They haven't consistently involved Kmet but Seattle's linebackers rate among the worst in the league in pass coverage and can be exploited by not only Allen but also Kmet.

Sit 'Em

1. Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett.

No one is saying his skills have faded but the Seahawks rarely seem to get to him in their offense now with Njigba making his impact. If Seattle decides Lockett isn't worth the cost next year and cuts him, the Bears would be an ideal place for him to relocate as the replacement for Allen. He hasn't had more than three catches in a game since Oct. 20 and in only two games since then has he had more than two receptions.

2. Bears RB D'Andre Swift

This just isn't working out. Bears play calling never gives the run a chance to be established and Swift is more of a big-strike back who makes big plays but doesn't get the necessary tough yardage the starter should get. He'd be an ideal complementary back to a power starter. With 39 yards or less in five of the last six games, the trend continues against an average Seahawks run defense. Fabiano describes it pretty accurately: "Swift’s stats lately have been the equivalent of getting coal in your Christmas stocking." And it hasn't been entirely Swift's fault. The offensive design and his use are the problems.

3. Bears WR Rome Odunze

He's actually had a decent rookie season with number close to what Moore and Allen have put up but it's been sporadic. He'll take advantage when given a chance and they don't always get around to giving him a chance. After 77 yards receiving last week, it's likely he'll wind up on the back burner again for Williams and for play caller Thomas Brown.

Defense

Seattle's defense is more likely to rise up and produce like a playoff team, certainly, than the Bears, but not to the extent anyone would want them in their lineup as a group to count on for their team defense. They have the parts but haven't been consistent enough and the Bears have proven they can get the comeback yardage against anyone.

In IDP leagues, it's difficult to tag anyone in Seattle's secondary as a potential big play type for this game because Williams hasn't been throwing interceptions. Montez Sweat could come out of hibernation for the Bears because of a favorable matchup on the line. Seattle's entire group of pass rushers could enjoy individual success because Williams didn't get sacked 60 times by accident. He'll hold the ball too long at times and even his best line gives up sacks. In this game he'll be protected by at least one sub lineman with Teven Jenkins out.

Chicago Bears Line: Seahawks by 4 1/2, over/under 42 1/2 (Fan Duel)

This Week's Chicago Bears On SI Pick: Seahawks 21, Bears 12

Chicago Bars On SI Bears Picks to Date: 13-2 straight up, 8-7 against the spread, 6-9 over/under

Around the NFL Last Week: 10-6 straight up, 8-7-1 ATS, 2-2 power plays

Around the NFL to Date: 159-71 straight up (.691), 126-95-3 ATS (.570), 37-27 power plays (.578)


This Week's Games

Chargers -4 1/2 at Patriots: Chargers 20, Patriots 17

Broncos +3 at Bengals: Broncos 28, Bengals 21*

Cardinals +6 1/2 at Rams: Rams 28, Cardinals 19

Cowboys +7 1/2 at Eagles: Eagles 31, Cowboys 23*

Colts -7 1/2 at Giants: Colts 24, Giants 10

Raiders -1 1/2 at Saints: Saints 20, Raiders 17*

Jets +8 1/2 at Bills: Bills 31, Jets 17

Titans +1 1/2 at Jaguars: Titans 23, Jaguars 16

Panthers +8 1/2 at Buccaneers: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 24

Dolphins -6 1/2 at Browns: Dolphins 19, Browns 13

Packers +1 1/2 at Vikings: Packers 24, Vikings 21

Falcons +4 1/2 at Commanders: Commanders 33, Falcons 23*

Lions -3 1/2 at 49ers: Lions 40, 49ers 20

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.