Bear Digest

Best Offseason Bears Decision Could Be Reason No. 1 for a Playoff Run

Analysis: Two inspections of the Bears' playoff chances have concluded if they make the run it will be due to the best decision they made in the past offseason.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams is surrounded by quality targets but ultimately a Bears playoff run will revolve around how quickly he adapts.
Caleb Williams is surrounded by quality targets but ultimately a Bears playoff run will revolve around how quickly he adapts. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
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The playoff debate rages on and it's not going to stop until the Bears have actually played a few games.

It might even continue then if they show they're capable of being in the postseason.

In a weekly column for CBS Sports, Zachary Pereles concludes the greatest question facing the Bears and a potential playoff run is whether their rookie quarterback can prove he's at a higher level than almost all rookie quarterbacks have been.

The possibility it could really happen is also backed up by Trevor Sikkema's analysis for Pro Football Focus about the best offseason decisions made by each NFC team.

"Caleb Williams was the obvious play for the Bears at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft, but there some analysts were caping for a strategy that included the team sticking with Justin Fields and trading the No. 1 overall pick again, likely for an even better return than the one they got the year before," Sikkema writes. "Chicago's best move was not doing that and drafting Williams."

Drafting Williams was a no-brainer considering Fields had never reached 2,600 passing yards in a season had a 10-28 record as starter and struggled mightily in the fourth quarter of games last season with a 53.4 passer rating. NFL teams can't survive on running quarterbacks alone -- it needs to be their side job to passing. Fields never did this.

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Pereles feels Williams can, but the main reason isn't because of the deadly passing he displayed in college. It's mainly because the Bears have surrounded their rookie with so much talent. The fact he is the first quarterback taken first overall to have at least two receivers coming off 1,200-yard seasons definitely doesn't hurt Williams' chances for success.

Pereles does trot out for CBS some of the better statistics used by Pro Football Focus in its analysis  of Williams to detail why a playoff run is possible.

Possibly the best statistic of those is his 10.1 yards per attempt from inside the pocket on play-action last year, as opposed to 7.3 yards per attempt from outside the pocket on play-action. He had 9.1 yards per attempt without play action regardless of whether he threw from the pocket.

The general perception built by many of Williams critics, like former NFL fullback Merril Hoge, is that Williams throws almost everything on extended plays outside the pocket. It simply isn't true and Pereles' stats suggest his.

One quick comment made after all the offseason work by Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson on the Rich Eisen Show resonates.

"He is special and going to be special," Johnson said.

He's not signed yet and no one has seen him face a live NFL pass rush, but Williams remains the betting favorite for NFL Rookie of the Year and if that's going to be the case, the Bears' playoff chances need to be taken seriously as Pereles suggests.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.