Bear Digest

Caleb Williams holds back laughter after explaining coach's pet stat

Caleb Williams groped through and explaining of how he can help to improve Ben Johnson's pet statistic of expected points added in this age of NFL analytics.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams is amused at his own explanation for how to improve Ben Johnson's favorite statistic of EPA (expected points added).
Caleb Williams is amused at his own explanation for how to improve Ben Johnson's favorite statistic of EPA (expected points added). / Photo: Chicago Bears video
In this story:

Expected points added is the statistic Bears coach Ben Johnson called all-important in determining who wins games in the NFL.

It's a vague analytic statistic and one followed by only the most ardent numbers/sports geeks but it is true it more often indicates who won a game at an even greater rate than turnovers, although this is very close. And it's also a number not easily rapidly attained during the actual game.

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams was asked this week at Halas Hall what he'll need to do to get Johnson's favorite number higher.

Not surprisingly, he didn't have the faintest clue. He sounded like the student who didn't study for the exam, arrives at class and learns it's an oral exam and not written. The smoke was blowing all over in different directions.

“I think it just comes down to details, accuracy details," Williams said, as he began his word salad. "That doesn't just mean physically. That means being decisive and being accurate mentally and sharp mentally. Just being on top of it.

"I think that starts from it–the decisiveness and then when you get out there when you're decisive everybody plays a lot better when you're decisive."

Then he plunged it all into even more shades of gray.

"The QB position when you're on the field is played in gray," Williams said. "Having everything else that I can have in black and white is a part of that. When you get on the field, you're decisive you go out there and you rip, you're more accurate. The ball, you get to place it where you want, you get to go out there and make checks, be clear minded."

There. It's simple.

Williams' explanation could have been exactly the same for talking about increasing the number of deep completions, short completions, passer efficiency rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt or just about anything else on offense.

"That's the goal. We'll work towards that, working on Ben's EPA," Williams said, with a big smile as he fought back laughter over his own explanation.

Williams actually said little about increasing EPA but what he did say is true about improving overall quarterback productivity and offensive productivity.

So in an indirect way he is talking about the same thing. It's like a quarterback talking about increasing his completion percentage in order to raise his passer rating number. It's going to happen if his passer rating goes up.

So in a way, he was right, but didn't exactly explain any specifics.

How critical of a stat is it, really?

In the last two seasons, neither Super Bowl winner led the NFL in EPA per play. The 49ers led in 2023 and lost in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs, who were 11th in EPA.

In 2024, the Ravens led at .2 and the Super Bowl champion Eagles finished sixth at EPA at 0.1.

The last time a Super Bowl winner led in this analytic was the Chiefs in 2022 at .17. It was a pretty good indicator for that one season because they beat the Eagles and Philadelphia was second at .09.

Last year the Bills were second at .18 and Johnson's Lions third at .15 The previous two seasons, Johnson's Lions finished sixth.

The old benchmark for meauring success chances was committing fewer turnovers.

Last season, the Chiefs finished fifth and Eagles sixth for turning the ball over. The 49ers tied for sixth in fewest turnovers while the Chiefs were 26th at protecting the ball the previous year. When the Chiefs won the Super Bowl over the Eagles in the 2022 season, they tied for 17th fewest turnovers and the Eagles were tied for fifth fewest.

So while EPA can be a better indicator who will win a Super Bowl than takeaways, what's probably more true is the team that commits the fewest turnovers and has an offense and quarterback most capable of letting them overcome their own turnovers or and/or mistakes will be far better off.

No word salad needed there, just common sense.

More Chicago Bears News

X: BearsOnSI

Published |Modified
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.