Bear Digest

Caleb Williams Hopes to Buck Major Historical Trend in Debut

Only four QBs chosen first overall since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger have won their first start, and Bears QB Caleb Williams hopes to become the first since 2002 to win one.

Gene Chamberlain

Can Caleb Williams do what the Mannings, Troy Aikman, Joe Burrow and Terry Bradshaw couldn't do and win a first start as No. 1 overall pick?
Can Caleb Williams do what the Mannings, Troy Aikman, Joe Burrow and Terry Bradshaw couldn't do and win a first start as No. 1 overall pick? / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images
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If the Bears are going to win Sunday's season opener at Soldier Field, it will take a drastic departure from history.

Caleb Williams makes his debut and quarterbacks chosen No. 1 overall do not usually fare well in those debuts, particularly in the win column.

Since the merger of the NFL and AFL, quarterbacks drafted first overall have a record of 4-23-1 in their first starts.

It seems to be getting worse with time, as the only No. 1 pick not to lose his first start since 2002 was Kyler Murray and he didn't win. The Cardinals tied the Lions in 2019 27-27.

Baker Mayfield had a great debut in 2018 by leading a 21-17 Browns win over the Jets but he didn't start the game. Tyrod Taylor started it. Then Mayfield got his first start the next week and the Browns lost.

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The four quarterbacks who won their starting debuts among the 28 No. 1 picks were David Carr in 2002 for the Houston Texans, Michael Vick for the Atlanta Falcons in 2001, John Elway for the Denver Broncos in 1983 and Jim Plunkett for the New England Patriots in 1971.

Since Carr's Texans won, the last 15 No. 1 overall QBs are 0-14-1 in their 15 starts.

Two of the four wins were somewhat tainted debuts. When the Falcons won, Vick didn't finish the game. Doug Johnson came in, threw a TD pass and led a drive to a field goal in a fourth-quarter comeback by Atlanta.

Elway's win came with a huge asterisk as he was removed from the game after going 1-for-8 with 14 yards and an interception, but the Broncos went on to win 14-10 when Steve DeBerg threw a 2-yard TD pass to Ron Egloff in the fourth quarter against the Steelers.

The one quarterback who had a smashing debut and still lost was Cam Newton, who threw for 422 yards. It's the most yardage by a No. 1 overall QB in his first start.

If history holds true, the Bears defense better come ready to play on Sunday because teams starting the first pick overall have averaged only 16.9 points in those games.

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QBs Drafted First Overall

Records in starting debuts

(Since AFL-NFL merger)

  • Terry Bradshaw 1970 19-7 Pittsburgh Steelers loss to Houston Oilers

  • Jim Plunkett 1971, 20-6 New England Patriots win over Oakland Raiders

  • Steve Bartkowski 1975, 23-20 Atlanta Falcons loss to St. Louis Cardinals
  • John Elway 1983, 14-10 Denver Broncos win over Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Vinny Testaverde 1987, 44-34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to New Orleans Saints
  • Troy Aikman 1989, 28-0 Dallas Cowboys loss to Tampa Buccaneers
  • Jeff George 1990, 26-10 loss by Indianapolis Colts to Dallas Cowboys
  • Drew Bledsoe 1993, 38-14 New England Patriots loss to Buffalo Bills
  • Peyton Manning 1998, 24-15 Indianapolis Colts loss to Miami Dolphins
  • Tim Couch 1999, 26-9 Cleveland Browns loss to Tennessee Titans
  • Michael Vick 2001, 20-13 win by Atlanta Falcons over Dallas Cowboys
  • David Carr 2002, 19-10 win by Houston Texans over Dallas Cowboys
  • Carson Palmer 2003, 31-24 loss by Cincinnati Bengals to N.Y. Jets
  • Eli Manning 2004, 14-10 loss by N.Y. Giants to Baltimore Ravens
  • Alex Smith 2005, 28-3 loss by San Francisco 49ers to Indianapolis Colts
  • JaMarcus Russell 2007, 30-17 loss by Oakland Raiders to San Diego Chargers
  • Matthew Stafford 2009, 45-27 loss by Detroit Lions to New Orleans Saints
  • Sam Bradford 2010, 17-13 loss by St. Louis Rams to Arizona Cardinals
  • Cam Newton 2011, 28-21 Carolina Panthers loss to Arizona Cardinals
  • Andrew Luck 2012, 41-21 Indianapolis Colts loss to Chicago Bears
  • Jameis Winston 2015, 42-14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to Tennessee Titans
  • Jared Goff 2016, 14-10 St. Louis Rams loss to Miami Dolphins
  • Baker Mayfield 2018, 45-42 Cleveland Browns loss to N.Y. Jets
  • Kyler Murray 2019, 27-27 Arizona Cardinals TIE with Detroit Lions
  • Joe Burrow 2020, 16-13 loss by Cincinnati Bengals to L.A. Chargers
  • Trevor Lawrence 2021, 37-21 loss by Jacksonville Jaguars to Houston Texans
  • Bryce Young 2023, 24-10 loss by Carolina Panthers to Atlanta Falcons

-Source: Pro Football Reference

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.