Bear Digest

Caleb Williams Overkill? This Hype Machine Has Barely Started

Analysis: The thought Caleb Williams can succeed immediately in the NFL has been labeled one of the most overblown stories this offseason but Bears fans know the overkill is only beginning.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams' every waking moment is logged, it seems, and now it's only going to become all the more intense.
Caleb Williams' every waking moment is logged, it seems, and now it's only going to become all the more intense. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
In this story:

Possibly the most ridiculous point made in an offseason analysis this year came from NFL.com's Eric Edholm.

In a piece on overblown and underreported NFL story lines, Edholm rates Caleb Williams being an immediate success as the No. 2 most overblown story of the offseason, right behind the Atlanta Falcons quarterback situation.

If the quarterback situation for Atlanta could rate ahead of the first overall pick playing for a franchise that started the league and has been without an acceptable quarterback since they made the mistake of trading Jim McMahon to the Chargers, then the Bears situation definitely isn't overblown.

Of course the Falcons QB situation doesn't rate ahead of the Bears situation for overkill.

It hasn't been publicized more because not as many people care about the Falcons or Kirk Cousins or the eighth pick of the draft. We're talking the No. 1 overall pick and the Chicago Bears. All the accompanying hype that has been unbearable so far deserves its just due. It should be No. 1.

So the ratings are wrong from the start. But this isn't the real problem with the analysis. 

Edholm probably should have termed it "Williams' development" rather than the thought he'll come in and succeed right way, because the idea the rookie will step right in and be a success hardly goes without opposition. There have been the dissenting voices all along all offseason saying he holds the ball too long or paints his nails or cries in his mother's arms after a loss.

Regardless, the main reason it's ridiculous to label this story as overblown is because anyone who thinks it has been overhyped had better get ready, because they haven't even really begun to put out the Caleb Williams hype.

It's going to come with more frequency and in far greater volume as training camp approaches and then really get revved up after camp begins. And HBO's Hard Knocks doesn't even start until after the first preseason game. Then it will start to become overwhelming.

So complaining about it all being overblown to this point is a bit like complaining right now about the 2024 presidential election being overhyped. If you think it's overdone, don't turn your TV on Thursday night or for the rest of the year until December, because this has been nothing so far.

Edholm correctly points out the last seven No. 1 overall picks at quarterback averaged 16 TD passes, 11 interceptions and 3,100 passing yards and calls those tame numbers. Actually, you could go back well beyond this as BearDigest did and the plus-5 thing holds up. It's 17 and 12 when you go back to 2000.

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With this fact, he's suggesting Williams will hit those averages so just calm down.

The C.J. Stroud experience is a once-in-a-generation thing, apparently.

A Bears fan can laugh and gladly accept plus-5 for rookie TD-to-interception ratio, even from the No. 1 pick.

That's what Andrew Luck's was as a rookie. It was 23 and 18. The 23 TD passes are great but 18 interceptions can land you in last place in this mistake-free NFL.

When Mitchell Trubisky's rookie numbers for 12 starts were seven TDs and seven interceptions and Justin Fields' were seven TDs and 10 interceptions in 12 games, those 16 TDs and 11 interceptions don't look bad at all.

Edholm actually offers up the hope it can be even better than those other QBs drafted first overall because of the surrounding cast.

"Granted, the Bears offer Williams some things that few of those rookie QBs had: an exciting WR corps, the makings of a solid offensive line and other good foundational pieces on offense, not to mention an improved roster on defense and special teams," he wrote. "Williams is an exceptional talent, the likes of which the Bears might never have had at the position. The schedule also is quite manageable."

It's this immediate pressure to succeed on Williams that Edholm thinks fans should dial back.

"Bears fans might want and expect immediate fireworks, but I'm here to say that the show might start a bit slowly," he wrote.

Losing 10 straight to Green Bay is far too much patience. One winning season since 2012 is too much patience. Too bad for Williams that these have happened and people are impatient. They deserve to be.

It's time they get on the bandwagon, which really hasn't even begun to roll. And as for a slow start, the schedule really gets tough in the season's second half. It's loaded with cupcakes in the first half. It's made for a QB hype train to roll early.

Oh, and a day after Edholm's story posted, his website's draft analyst, Chad Reuter, posted an all-rookie offensive team projection.

Williams is the starting quarterback on this.

So who, exactly is it that's overhyping things?

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.