Bear Digest

Can Caleb Williams Elevate Bears to the Playoffs as a Rookie?

An Updated Bears Game by Game Projection: If Bears are in their second phase, as GM Ryan Poles says, then it's possible 10-7 and the playoffs are too much to expect.

Gene Chamberlain

Tremaine Edmunds pressures Jordan Love in last year's season-ending loss to the Packers. Expect Bears playoff hopes to boil down to this year's season-ender at Lambeau Field.
Tremaine Edmunds pressures Jordan Love in last year's season-ending loss to the Packers. Expect Bears playoff hopes to boil down to this year's season-ender at Lambeau Field. / Mark Hoffman?Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
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It’s still a somewhat troubling comment sfrom Bears GM Ryan Poles.

He made it right after describing how they had been scraping around for talent after they had gutted the roster in the beginning of their rebuild, back in 2022. Then he moved forward.

“We're just kind of in this kind of second phase of things,” Poles said, “But really patience letting the board kind of talk to us and then being opportunistic.

“With the trade, drafting (WR) Rome (Odunze), there's a lot of cool things that happened. We used every different kind of way to acquire that talent, which was great.”

There were a lot of cool things that happened last year, like the defense ascended in the second half to lead in interceptions and stopping the run after Montez Sweat arrived.

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Yet, this is still the second phase of this regime? Shouldn’t it be the third phase, when they are real playoff contenders rather than a team hoping to see the turnaround start?

After all, they did beat Detroit last year and should have won twice. They won five of the last eight.

It all sounds like a way to cover for Matt Eberflus and the team and himself in case of a slow start, and a slow start is the worst thing this team can have happen. That’s because they finish this season’s second half with two full rounds of divisional games and a game at San Francisco.

Although the first half of the season looks relatively benign, there are games with the Rams, Texans and even the Colts and Jaguars can’t be overlooked.

Taking into account a rookie quarterback and where they finished last year, how they’ve added Rome Odunze, Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett, the Bears need to be in winning mode right out of the gates.

Chicago Bears On SI made a game-by-game call after draft and free agency but before the start of OTAs.  After looking at their new offense and coordinator, the talent acquired and knowing now what other teams have done, it looks a bit difference.

There is a downgrade.

Here is a game-by-game prediction on the coming Bears season based on everything to this point. If playoffs are the goal, get set for a rough ride. It’s anyone’s guess.

Sept. 8: Bears 19, Titans 16

At Soldier Field

Tony Pollard once shredded the Bears defense while with Dallas, but he’s no Derrick Henry and this Titans offense Is rebuilding with a young QB just like the Bears offense is. The Bears defense can win this one themselves considering Will Levis is a quarterback with only nine games of experience and has a new coaching regime using different techniques and schemes. Even DeAndre Hopkins can’t be counted on for the Titans, because he’s been trying to work his way back to practice after an injury since late July.

Sept. 15: Texans 31, Bears 16

At Houston

Here’s where Caleb Williams’ inexperience comes into play, at a loud venue, in a prime-time game and with his own defense under pressure all game from a high-caliber playoff offense. Expect the defense to keep them in it until too many Williams mistakes result in a lopsided fourth quarter with C.J. Stroud throwing a few short TD passes to end scoring drives.

Sept. 22: Colts 20, Bears 17

At Indianapolis

Anthony Richardson’s return from last year’s injury and the second straight game in a dome on the road prove too much for the Bears to overcome. It’s like the Bears face parts of the situations they faced in the first two games combined. A second-year QB who didn’t play a full rookie year, like Levis, but with the home-field edge like Stroud had. The Bears offense is still sputtering and Williams still learning. The defense needed help on the road and doesn't get it.

Sept. 29: Rams 28, Bears 23

At Soldier Field

The Rams are this writer’s pick to surprise and make it to the Super Bowl from the NFC, before getting bowled over by Baltimore. They’ll bring their high-powered attack to Soldier Field and late in the second half the Bears offense finally starts to kick in, but not before they’re too far behind to do anything about it. The Bears have their much-dreaded slow start to this season and it will eventually cost them. They need a fast start or face a season of lowered expectations.

Oct. 6: Bears 31, Panther 10

At Soldier Field

What’s worse than the Panthers team the Bears beat last year using Tyson Bagent at quarterback, after Poles had picked their pockets in the draft? The rebuilding Panthers under yet another coaching staff, that’s who. And they come to Soldier Field just as the Bears offense and Williams are starting to figure it all out under coordinator Shane Waldron. Not a good place to be. They’re going to be to these Bears what the Washington Commanders were to last year’s. They’re going to face a scuffling Bears team and suffer a beatdown after the Bears finally put it all together.

Oct. 13: Jaguars 21, Bears 20

At London

People in London finally get real NFL excitement in a game between two competent teams on both sides of the ball, with Trevor Lawrence’s experience ultimately the deciding factor on a late drive to the winning TD. Questions will surface about playing too much soft zone defense and giving Sweat too many downs of rest on the deciding drive, but haven’t we all heard this all before. Now at 2-4 but with nowhere to go but up, the great turnaround begins for this team.

Oct. 27: Bears 34, Commanders 16

At Washington

It won’t quite be last year’s laugher in Washington but Williams finds Odunze, DJ Moore and Allen with regularity early in the game, then the running game takes control the way it should. Montez Sweat finishes it with his third sack of the game.

Nov. 3: Bears 24, Cardinals 16

At Arizona

The Cardinals will be more formidable than last year in the cold at Soldier Field, but their root problems will remain on defense. They gave up more points than all but one other team last year and haven’t done enough personnel-wise to improve this. The Bears return to the stadium where they won without a touchdown in 2006 when they were “who we thought they were.” And now they’re looking more like the team we thought they were.

Nov. 10: Bears 27, Patriots 17

At Soldier Field

By now, Drake Maye has been given the starting assignments but he’s untested, very raw and promising. Williams looks like a savvy veteran in this one by comparison and throws three TD passes, one to each of his big three in the wide receiver group. The Patriots will find life without both Tom Brady and Bill Belichick even rougher than it was when they were without only Tom Brady. The Bears are now a winning team after a slow start, but it’s here the schedule toughens. Are they ready?

Nov. 17: Bears 20, Packers 16

At Soldier Field

Green Bay dismantled what looked like a strong running attack with Aaron Jones in order to bring in one of the league’s best backs. But that’s what Jones was. Now they have had problems coming up with the second back due to A.J. Dillon’s injuries. In Josh Jacobs, they have a back who has played a full season only once in his five years in the league and averaged 4.0 yards a carry or less three of his five seasons. The lack of a consistent running game at this point for the Packers is something Jordan Love can’t overcome as the Bears defense gets him on the run the way the 49ers did at the end of last year’s playoff game. Bad things happen then for Love. Yes pinch yourselves Bears fans, that’s the Packers your team just beat to go 6-4.

Nov. 24: Bears 23, Vikings 10

At Soldier Field

As good of an offensive coach as Kevin O’Connell is, and as good of a defensive coach as Brian Flores is, they’re not coming in to Soldier Field with an inferior quarterback and with a defense still lacking in necessary ingredients and steal away a win. The Bears are  7-4, right in the middle of the NFC North hunt, and now hope to show last year when they dominated play for 116 minutes against the Lions in two games and came away with only one win and a loss.

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Nov. 28: Lions 24, Bears 19

At Detroit

Detroit’s offensive line is the difference in this one. The teams that perform best against the Bears defense at the end of last year are those who stick to the running game and keep the front four from living in the backfield. The Lions stick with their running game like they should have in both of the two games they played so poorly against the Bears last year and have a 24-7 lead in the fourth quarter of a Thanksgiving Day game. Tough to come back and play in so short of a period for a road game and the Bears look inept in this one on both sides of the ball.

Dec. 8: 49ers 33, Bears 10

At. San Francisco

Losing to San Francisco so convincingly took something out of the Bears on defense and at this point in the season injuries are playing a role. Going west to face the Niners or Rams has never been something the Bears have done well consistently since the 1985 Super Bowl season. A drubbing by the 49ers, who have fallen behind the Rams in the NFC West, is a wakeup call for the Bears if they hope to save their season.

Dec. 16: Vikings 19, Bears 17

At Minneapolis

Heartbreak time on the road, as the U.S. Bank Stadium is rocking and the Bears are making mistakes on offense. The blitzing pressure from Flores’ defense gets to Williams and Minnesota holds off one last Bears drive with in interception to hand Eberflus’ team a third straight loss. Now it’s going to take a late run to get to the playoffs.

Dec. 22: Bears 27, Lions 14

At Soldier Field

Jared Goff and the Soldier Field cold just do not mix. The Bears defense rises to the occasion, the running game does the job on offense and Williams sticks to the script in an efficient, physical victory to stop a slide and keep alive hopes.

Dec. 26: Bears 31, Seahawks 16

At Soldier Field

Seahawks fans have flooded social media over the past offseason blaming Waldron’s offense for their demise last year, when it was actually Peter Carroll and the defense that needed to go for three years. Waldron, Williams and Bears receivers have an enjoyable day in wind-swept Soldier Field cold and dominate a team headed for the depths of the league.

Jan. 4/5: Packers 19, Bears 17

At Green Bay

The Packers are vying for the division title but Detroit has the playoff tiebreakers. The Bears are vying for their playoff lives. There is very little at this point separating the three teams but home field and a charged-up Packers pass rush make a difference. The Bears at 9-8 are leaving it to the NFL playoff tiebreakers to get them into the playoffs.

Final Record: 9-8

A 9-8 team with an offense that has gradually built itself up and a defense now capable of playoff wins is all dressed up with no place to go except wait until next year. Chicago Bears On SI sees training camp and the preseason as proof the Bears are not quite up to the 10-7 forecast of May, although they're close The playoff teams in the NFC: Detroit, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Dallas, San Francisco, L.A. Rams and Atlanta. The Caleb Williams switch is a success in that it sets up the offense for bigger things in the future than they ever could have imagined with Justin Fields, who was limited to running and losing close games in the fourth quarter. But for this year, they are not a  playoff team and this definitely will sit poorly with a fan base expecting so much this year in Ryan Poles' ”second phase.”

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.