Bear Digest

Chicago Bears 2024 Season Preview: Winning Is Next Phase

Analysis: Bears GM Ryan Poles sees the Bears in "Phase 2," and after creating the most excitement for a Bears season in a couple of decades, that needs to mean winning.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams looks downfield for options against the Bengals. The rookie QB holds the key for a first winning Bears season since 2018.
Caleb Williams looks downfield for options against the Bengals. The rookie QB holds the key for a first winning Bears season since 2018. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
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Few Chicago Bears seasons ever generated the kind of optimism caused by this one.

Even in 2018 when Khalil Mack came on board a week before the season, the reason for excitement never reached the level it has now.

Perhaps the last time came during the height of the Lovie Smith era, when the Bears last went to a Super Bowl. Even then, almost no one looked at Rex Grossman and felt the hope quarterback Caleb Williams stirs.

The major difference between this team and the Bears team on the cusp of a division title in 2018 is youth. This is a team situated to be good for years to come, if only they can attain a higher level now.


At no other time since Eddie Jackson picked off an Aaron Rodgers pass in the end zone in that 2018 season has it seemed possible the Bears could take the North, but more importantly, not give it back.


It's just a matter of taking it now because the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers also field strong, young teams ready to win for years.

During his annual state-of-the-team address, Poles referred to this season as "the second phase" without clarifying what this actually consittutes.

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It needs to mean winning, because less has been what they've settled for the past two years.

During his annual state-of-the-team address, Poles referred to this season as "the second phase" without clarifying what this actually consittutes.

It needs to mean winning, because less has been what they've settled for the past two years.

The Strengths

Never have the Bears fielded a team so capable of inflicting damage through the air.

Potential Hall of Fame receiver Keenan Allen, snubbed Pro Bowl talent DJ Moore and rookie Keenan Allen, the third receiver chosen in the past draft, possess far more talent than even the last division-winning team the Bears had with Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller. They had Trey Burton, Adam Shaheen and Dion Sims at tight end, not Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett and Marcedes Lewis.

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The main reason they expect to throw the ball better is Williams. No Bears passer had the kind of arm he has since Jay Cutler, and Williams has already endeared himself to members of the team in ways Cutler couldn't have imagined.

They haven't lost all remnants of a running game. It's a team that led the NFL in rushing yards over the last two seasons when quarterback Justin Fields was running more effectively than he passed, but Khalil Herbert averages 4.9 yards for his career, starter D'Andre Swift 4.6 yards while also being a big-play receiving threat. It's a three-headed rushing attack with second-year back Roschon Johnson capable of power running and receiving.

One of the great nagging problems they've had in recent years has been their offensive line's health, but the group assembled has desired continuity as four of the five starters played together at their current positions last year.

"There's so many injuries in this league, and I just think being able to adjust is obviously a big thing, too," tackle Braxton Jones said. "But like I said, the continuity and running with the same guys for the whole camp or two, three years really does matter. But at the same time, we got to be able to adjust and play football."

Tackles Darnell Wright and Jones are young and improving, left guard Teven Jenkins might be the best blocker and right guard Nate Davis appears healthy now after an offseason and early training camp battling through issues. Only at center is there someone different, but Coleman Shelton has been a starter in the NFL for the past two years in Los Angeles and guard/center backup Ryan Bates provides a backup level possibly as good or better than starters at right guard or center once he's past a training camp injury. Rookie third-rounder Kiran Amegadjie and veteran Matt Pryor supply more depth.

"This is probably the best depth I’ve ever had," Poles said of the offensive line.

The real strength of the team showed up in the second half of last year and those were defending the run and covering passes. They rose from 30th against the run to first. At the same time, the secondary began picking off passes at a rapid pace to finish tied for first with 22.

Jaylon Johnson might be the best cornerback in the league. At least Pro Football Focus said he was last year and still rates him top five. Tyrique Stevenson no longer carries the rookie designation by his name and could make teams pay for trying to pick on him the way they did last year, when he tied for the team high with four interceptions. Slot corner Kyler Gordon enters his third year poised to make a leap based on past improvement, if he can stay on the field long enough. Safety Jaquan Brisker is in much the same situation as Gordon, while Kevin Byard is the only new face and as a 30-something somewhat of an anomaly. But he replaces another 30ish DB in Eddie Jackson and has 11 more career interceptions to go with two All-Pro designations and two Pro Bowls.

Linebackers T.J. Edward, Tremaine Edmunds and Jack Sanborn have shown a nose for the ball already, with the physicality to aid the run defense.

"Understanding how guys in front are going to play, understanding just how the D-line fits certain things and at backer, knowing how we're fitting every play, I think from this point last year to this year, it was a way different ballgame," Edwards said. "So, I think our comfort level is just so much better."

When defensive end Montez Sweat came over in a trade last year the Bears finally had the missing dominant pass rusher, much like happened in 2018 when they acquired Mack. The extra pressure led to 20 sacks in the season's second half, twice the total in the first half, and provided the catalyst for 18 takeaways in the season's second half, also twice the total in the first half. Defensive end DeMarcus Walker is now familiar with his job after a year starting there, and last year's arrival of nose tackle Andrew Billings sparked the turnaround in their run defense. It is second-year defensive tackle Gervon Dexter they count on to ascend as a starter in the critical 3-technique spot to cause disruption.

They've also improved the kicking game, already potent with the franchise's most accurate place-kicker ever, Cairo Santos. Rookie punter Tory Taylor shows a unique ability to spin punts and bottle up opponents, combined with leg strength under pressure to get the Bears out of holes.

They've had a problem with punt returner and seem to have settled on veteran DeAndre Carter to solve this, although this wouldn't necessarily constitute a strength as much as a patch.

The Problems

The rookie quarterback holds so much potential but those two words -- rookie quarterback -- can cause more losses in the NFL than just about anything else. Williams displays the ability to complete risky passes on the move and make throws from all arm angles, but with the group Poles has assembled there should be little need to gamble much. Gambling rookie QBs are turnovers waiting to happen in a league with higher levels of speed and athleticism than he was used to facing when he won a Heisman at USC.

"He has that (big-play) ability and so I think that's kind of the big thing," Poles said. "Lean on the guys around him, be instinctual, let those wild plays happen at the right time. We saw it in the preseason a little bit. That’s gonna be important."

They need Williams to get faster at recognition with defenses, at running his own offense and more confident his pass blocking in order to stay in the pocket and throw on time. More than anything, they need to see in Williams the ability to deliver in the clutch because it was something they didn't have in Fields when he won 10 out of 38 starts.

"I think it's really, I kinda say it's their heartbeat," Poles said. "Does their heartbeat skyrocket in those pressure situations? Or do you see this calm? We're not going to know until we're in it, in terms of the pro side of it (with Williams). But that's what I look for. I want the game to slow down, for there to be a level of poise, and again, I'll go back to is there that same combination of taking what a defense gives you, leaning on your talent and then when you’re forced to be special, be special?"

Success doesn't need to be all on Williams as a rookie because of the team assembled, but their failure can be.

Their only other real issue beyond maintaining good health--which seems impossible in the NFL--appears to be the defensive line.

Measures were taken to add to the pass rush by drafting edge Austin Booker and trading for edge Darrell Taylor but it isn't as if they've added proven Pro Bowl material to the rush. They'd benefit greatly if Walker can contribute as a pass rusher in his second Bears season like he did as a run defender in his first. They're sure to face double-team and triple-team tactics on Sweat after all the pressure he brought to bear last year.

"Yeah, that's just a part of the league and being a good pass rusher," Sweat said. "I've been getting chipped, double-teamed, slides, even since I was in Washington."

Still to be proven is Dexter's ability for disruption stopping the run. It's a critical role in the scheme. Last year's defensive rushing improvement had lost free agent Justin Jones at the position, and he made 23 tackles for loss over the past two years. Lose the ability to stop the run and the pass rush and pass coverage become moot points.

"Not only the three-tech, the defensive line is the engine, is the heart of the team, honestly," Dexter said. "So I understand the importance of being there and being able to dominate there."

Coaching Change

Teams doing the same thing over and over the same way can become predictable. The Bears will have the element of surprise on their side with a virtually a new offensive coaching staff under coordinator Shane Waldron.

"Obviously, a really smart dude that likes to use a ton of different personnel groupings and we've seen that throughout camp which has been really cool, putting guys in good positions that they can succeed in," Kmet said.

The addition of defensive coordinator Eric Washington takes weekly preparation pressure off of Eberflus, who retains defensive play-calling responsibilities. Washington's expertise on the defensive line might even be enough to turn some of their pass rushers into what they need as complements to the Sweat effect.

The Schedule

Even the schedule ahead favors a team poised to break out. It's the fourth-easiest schedule based on last year's records, and they don't face one of their tough divisional opponents until November. Five of the first nine opponents finished last in their division in 2023.

So, there is a need to be ready at the outset to take advantage of a good situation before the tough stuff in the NFC North begins against the Packers, Lions and a Vikings team with many holes but plenty of talent.

"That's what all the good teams do—they start fast," Eberflus said. "The teams that make it to the postseason, they start fast."

Buying Time

It's Eberflus' third year but it would appear Poles bought him time by bringing in a new quarterback. No one wants a repeat of the past, when Fields and Mitchell Trubisky both had new coaching staffs and offenses for their second seasons in the league. It became almost like repeating the rookie year.

It's going to take time for any rookie to ascend.

The future of the franchise, indeed, is tied to Williams. He'll need to do enough to ensure it's a path they can all stay on in subsequent years.

Doing it by making the postseason would be an expectation and not a hope after everything done to help him.

"To win the division, win Super Bowls, that's always the goal," Poles said. "Obviously getting into the playoffs and winning playoff games would be outstanding.

"But I think the biggest thing is can we take that big jump from where we were last year to this year, and I think we're capable of doing that."

Doing it without making the playoffs would seem unlikely considering they won seven last year, and all of the optimism their offseason generated.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.