Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers: Who Wins and Why

A breakdown of positional group battles between Caleb Williams and the 2-2 Bears and the 1-3 Panthers in Sunday's noon game at Soldier Field, with a final prediction on the winner.

Gene Chamberlain

Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon hauls down running back Miles Sanders on a pass in last year's 16-13 Bears win.
Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon hauls down running back Miles Sanders on a pass in last year's 16-13 Bears win. / Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images
In this story:

They don't schedule back-to-back games against the same opponent in the NFL like in baseball and sometimes hockey and basketball.

It does happen in rare instances when a team finishes the season against an opponent and then starts postseason play against the same team, but that's the only time.

It will happen only by accident.

Caleb Williams and the Bears (2-2) face a situation somewhat like this Sunday, however, when they host the Carolina Panthers (1-3).

They're coming in a favorite at home by more than a field goal, against a defense struggling badly against the run and to keep teams from scoring in general. The Rams last week were a 3 1/2-point underdog and the Bears offense was facing a battered and collapsing Rams run defense in that one.

On the other side of the ball this week, the Bears see their former quarterback, Andy Dalton. It's another veteran pocket passer in the Matthew Stafford mold, though not as accomplished, and he has a capable running back beside him in Chuba Hubbard just like the Rams last week with Kyren Williams.

It's as close to a repeating game as it can get with the opponents wearing different uniforms.

Even some of the offense Dave Canales uses is similar to what the Bears saw from the Rams last week and what they themselves use because the Panthers coach spent most of his time in Seattle, the last two years of that stretch when Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron arrived with the Sean McVay offense. And the Bears faced McVay last week.

So the Bears get another chance to beat a struggling team with a downtrodden defense at Soldier Field Sunday at noon. Here's who wins and why.

Bears Running vs. Panthers Run Defense

Here is a mismatch provided Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron lets it happen with his play calling and does not become too predictable with it. Losing their two starting linebackers Josey Jewell and Shaq Thompson, is a tough blow for a defense already ranked 29th against the run. The Bears just got D'Andre Swift rolling last week and discovered Roschon Johnson again. Perhaps they'll even get Khalil Herbert involved this week now that Johnson and Swift have run better. Edge to Bears

Bears Passing vs. Panthers Pass Defense

On the face of it, Caleb Williams throwing against Carolina's secondary, this would look like an even battle. But losing those two linebackers leaves the short middle of the field exposed and it's where Cole Kmet and Keenan Allen can be used extensively, not to mention the Bears running backs. And Williams showed last week he has learned the art of the checkdown. What's to keep Williams from venturing downfield with the throw? The Panthers have five sacks on the year, and only one player with more than one—3-4 defensive end Jayden Peevy with 1 1/2. They have given up nine TD passes, and 15 total TDs. Williams should be able to step into his throws and win downfield with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. Edge to Bears

Panthers Running vs. Bears Run Defense

Normally this would rate a standoff because Chuba Hubbard has been effective but last year the Bears rated No. 1 against the run. Although the Bears are capable of producing tackles for loss and stuffing the Carolina running game, they need to prove they can still do it. They haven't done it as they've allowed 119 yards rushing or more in three of their four games. And Carolina fortified its offensive line this past year. Edge to Panthers

THREE KEYS TO BEARS WIN INCLUDE FLAG-FREE DAY

WHY ONE QUARTER IN A GAME OR SEASON DECIDE NOTHING FOR BEARS

BEARS IN UNFAMILIAR SITUATION WITH RUN DEFENSE BEING QUESTIONED

A WAY FORWARD IN THE NFC NORTH HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BEARS

Panthers Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

Dalton can still be a very effective passer when given time to throw and when his receivers are open early in the short passing game. He's facing the best secondary the Panthers have played this year, one second in the league in passer rating against and third in interceptions. They also have a surging pass rush that doesn't need to blitz to create pressure, but does use it effectively when they do it. Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen are formidable receiver but Jaylon Johnson seems able to take any receiver out of their game and the other cornerbacks have followed suit. No Edge

Special Teams

The Bears have the punter from down under, Tory Taylor, the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week, but Panthers punter Johnny Hekker has been an unorthodox punting force in the league for years and even likes to add the element of faking the punt at times.  Cairo Santos has been an upgrade for the Bears over their former kicker, Eddy Pineiro, who is now Carolina's kicker. But Pineiro is growing into the league now much like Santos did and they're closer in ability than one might think. Pineiro has missed only six field goals since leaving Chicago after missing five in his lone Bears season. Both teams have been similar in the return game and Bears punt returner DeAndre Carter is questionable coming into the game with bruised ribs. They'd be severely challenged to come up with another punt returner they could have confidence in if they can't use him.  No Edge

Coaching

Time on task is a phrase Matt Eberflus likes to talk about and he has this with his defense and with the members of it using his scheme. It's the only stable element in this game because Carolina's defense is completely overturned in personnel under coordinator Ejiro Evero from the group they had last year when they finished fourth in defense. They're struggling. The problem for the Bears is Shane Waldron showed in the first three weeks he's capable of looking past what they need to do well and try a little bit of everything on offense. That doesn't work in the NFL, where something must be established before moving on to something else, and Waldron should have learned this. Edge to Bears

Intangibles

The Bears have won seven in a row at Soldier Field, starting with their win over Carolina last year. No other NFL team has a home-field winning streak this long. It's a pattern worth repeating, and one they should rely on as a favorite. Edge to Bears

Final Score: Bears 26, Panthers 16

If the Bears had their offense finely tuned and Caleb Williams with several more games of experience as a starter, this is one that could have turned into a blowout. But they haven't advanced far enough to do more than win comfortably as four-point favorites and go 3-2 heading into a trip to London. If this turns into an upset loss at home, it’s a very bad sign for Matt Eberflus and Co.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.