Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions Fantasy Starters and NFL Picks

Charting the players to start and sit from Thursday's Bears and Lions game in fantasy football as well as this week's picks against the spread from around the league.

Gene Chamberlain

Jahmyr Gibbs breaks into the clear against the Bears last year in Detroit.
Jahmyr Gibbs breaks into the clear against the Bears last year in Detroit. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
In this story:

It was interesting to hear what Bears coach Matt Eberflus said Wednesday about the possibility his team would need to amp up the offense and outscore Detroit in a shootout to win, and also the way his run defense has collapsed.

As his team got set to travel to Detroit, Eberflus blamed some of the decline of the Bears run defense on Andrew Billings' torn pec.

"We've had change in personnel," he said. "We lost Billings. Of course he's a really good run stopper.

"But again it's the next man up and we've got to do a good job of that this week. It's a big challenge."

The Bears have dropped to 20th against the run, but have been as low as 24th against the run. They were 10th before Billings went out to have the pectoral muscle surgery.

The "next man up" philosophy is so much garbage. It's only coachspeak unless a team has a star in the waiting.

Few teams are deep enough at key positions, especially defensive tackle, to have players of great talent watching or on special teams ready to make a sudden impact.

The decline of the Bears defense to bottom half of the league at 17th overall is one reason why it might be time on offense to let Caleb Williams fire away. Line him up in a four- or five-receiver set and just start pitching it without worrying about the running game. Few teams have run with much success against the Lions, anyway.

"When you're playing an offense and they're ranked high in every category, it's a challenge for the whole football team to be able to stay ahead of it and still attack but also be effective and be smart about what you're doing," Eberflus said. "So that's a delicate balance there, but it certainly applies pressure to the whole football team."

Translation: The Bears passing attack will need to carry the day for them to have a chance.

That only means one thing for fantasy football owners and for gamblers this week:

Charge!

Here are the players to start and sit in the Thanksgiving Day game between Detroit and Chicago, as well as this week's NFL picks.

Start 'Em

1. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs

The receiving yards and a few breakaway type runs should be enough to put Gibbs into a heavy play category. The Lions will throw to him under the coverage all day and hope his speed allows him to escape for bigger yardage. Gibbs had nine catches for 74 yards against the Bears last year.

2. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

He did have a knee injury issue but it was minor and he's always a go in this offense.

He's always an automatic, but he has only had one game with more than 77 receiving yards against the Bears and was held to three catches for 21 yards last year in Chicago in the second game. He has one career TD catch against the Bears.

3. Lions QB Jared Goff

Although horrible last year against the Bears in two games with 68.4 and 58.3 passer ratings, and five interceptions, Goff did throw three touchdown passes. In fantasy, it's about the TD passes and not efficiency ratings. Last year the Bears were able to get after the Lions QB because they rendered the running game less effective. They probably can't do that this year because it's been rare when they've done it to anyone. Considering Goff's passer rating was 121.75 with eight TDs and no interceptions for his previous four games against the Bears, it seems more likely he'll return to form.

4. Lions RB David Montgomery

Montgomery saved a few of his best performances for his former team last year with 142 yards rushing against them on 22 carries. He has dropped down to essentially No. 2 option now because Gibbs has been so explosive, but is still capable of delivering tough yardage. Four of his five 100-yard rushing games in Detroit came last year for the Lions, but the Bears' run defense is calling out to be smashed as they've struggled without Billings.

5. Lions TE Sam LaPorta

Every other tight end seems to be lighting it up against the Bears defense: T.J. Hockenson won the game last week for Minnesota. The Bears shut down LaPorta with five catches and 41 yards in his two games last year but it's likely the Lions will make an adjustment.

6. Bears QB Caleb Williams

Even if he throws some interceptions to Detroit's safeties as he's taking risks, the Bears offense is going to come through him and not the running game going forward. He's going to keep firing and even if this is lopsided he'll get in his licks on occasion for fantasy points.

7. Bears WR Rome Odunze

Put them all up there because Williams is going to be throwing. Odunze is Mr. Fourth Quarter and has Williams' complete confidence.

8. Bears WR DJ Moore

They finally managed to get Moore's yards per catch up over 10.0 last week and the connection between he and Williams is finally starting to strengthen. In five career games against the Lions, he's never been below five catches and 68  yards and has four touchdown catches.

9. Bears WR Keenan Allen

With the running game taking on less importance as Williams' passing is more vital, Allen becomes the way for the Bears to advance the sticks. His nine catches for 86 yards last week was a sign of what's to come in the final weeks of the season, until, that is, the Bears decide not to bring him back after he builds that good connection.

10. Bears TE Cole Kmet

With the other targets working, it's only logical Kmet will get his targets, as well. His production had slowed to a crawl but the last two weeks it's been 10 receptions for 106 yards. Detroit's linebackers do a fine job of covering tight ends and they can let the safeties stay put in the secondary, so it might be tougher for Kmet than in some other games, except in the red zone where he's always a threat.

BEARS AND LIONS: WHO WINS AND WHY

WOULD BEARS JOB INTEREST BEN JOHNSON AND OTHER BEARS-LIONS ISSUES

THREE KEYS TO BEARS UPSET OF LIONS ON THANKSGIVING

THOMAS BROWN CONNECTION WHAT CALEB WILLIAMS HAS NEEDED ALL ALONG

Sit 'Em

1. RB D'Andre Swift

The Bears won't be able to rely on the running game for consistent yardage against a run defense ranked fifth overall. The Lions don't gamble as much as the Vikings so runs are less likely to pop for bigger yards. They could use Swift as a receiver more but it's unlikely to be enough to make him a major factor.

2. WR Jameson Williams

He has been catching passes underneath and using his great speed to pick up yards in recent games, with 188 yards and nine catches the last two. But those last two games came against the league's worst pass defense and the 27th-ranked defense. Against Minnesota, Dallas, Seattle and Arizona he had seven total catches and one for minus-4 yards against the Vikings. The Bears' defense has fallen off but hasn't hit rock bottom. Unless he victimizes Tyrique Stevenson, the Bears should be able to lim

The Betting Window

Bears Line: Lions by 10 1/2, over-under 48 1/2 (Fan Duel)

Chicago Bears on SI Bears Picks to Date: 9-2 straight up, 6-5 against the spread, 5-6 over/under

Chicago Bears On SI Pick: Lions 31, Bears 17

Around the NFL Last Week: 10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread, 3-1 power plays

Around the NFL to Date: 116-55 straight up (.678), 97-66-2 against the spread (.595), 27-21 power plays (.562)

This Week's NFL Games and Picks:

  • Giants +3 1/2 at Cowboys*: Cowboys 24, Giants 16^
  • Dolphins +3 1/2 at Packers*: Packers 30, Dolphins 20^
  • Raiders +13 at Chiefs**: Chiefs 27, Raiders 16
  • Texans -4 at Jaguars: Texans 40, Jaguars 20^
  • Titans +5 1/2 at Commanders: Commanders 23, Titans 19
  • Cardinals +3 1/2 at Vikings: Vikings 19, Cardinals 10
  • Seahawks -2 at Jets: Jets 17, Seahawks 14
  • Steelers +3 at Bengals: Steelers 24, Bengals 20
  • Chargers -1 at Falcons: Falcons 28, Chargers 26
  • Colts -2 1/2 at Patriots: Patriots 20, Colts 17
  • Buccaneers -6 at Panthers: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 19
  • Rams -2 1/2 at Saints: Rams 34, Saints 17^
  • Eagles +3 at Ravens: Eagles 35, Ravens 30
  • 49ers +7 at Bills: Bills 31, 49ers 23
  • Browns +5 1/2 at Broncos: Broncos 19, Browns 16

Packers +5 at Lions***: Lions 34, Packers 23

*Thursday game

**Friday game

***Dec. 5 game

^-power play

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.