Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions: Who Wins and Why

Can Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears continue a trend of sharp passing from losses to Green Bay and Minnesota, but on the road with little practice time? Here's who wins and why.

Gene Chamberlain

David Montgomery powers toward the goal line last year in Detroit's comeback victory over the Bears.
David Montgomery powers toward the goal line last year in Detroit's comeback victory over the Bears. / Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK
In this story:

It's not easy to pass off what the Bears did last week as some sort of fluke game by quarterback Caleb Williams.

There have been only three other teams score more than the Bears did against The Vikings' blitzing defense and only the Rams and Lions did it and beat Minnesota. Seven teams failed to get more than 17 points against Minnesota, but the Bears had 27.

To his credit, Williams saw no victory within the loss, even if many Bears fans accustomed to quarterbacks falling on their faces did.

"With a DC like that, I think that's how the game is normally going to be," Williams said. "If you get hit, get back up and throw the next punch. Next time, just throw the punch first.

"So. Ya know, with that, I wouldn't say I passed or failed. We lost. I didn't do enough at the end of that game to be able to help the team win."

Williams didn't need to wait long to get another chance to rectify things.

The important part of that game and the rest of this lost Bears season is about getting the chance to learn, improve and on Thanksgiving go against a Super Bowl level opponent, even while trying to snap a five-game losing streak.

The future might not belong to this Bears coaching regime. But it does belong to Williams, and last week's game against the Vikings showed it could actually include a future where he is the preeminent QB in the division.

It takes time on task. Right now, however, the task on Thanksgiving is a daunting one.

It's Bears and Lions on Thanksgiving at Ford Field in Detroit. Here's who wins and why.

Bears Passing vs. Lions Pass Defense

The Lions blitz only 4% fewer plays than the Vikings do, but can be more effective at it even though they're 22nd in sacks. The reason is they have safeties  Kerby Joseph (7 INTs) and Brian Branch (4) being ballhawks and taking advantage of the heat being applied. They don't have to get the sacks. The heat is enough. Detroit will run blitz to prevent gains of 4 to 9 yards on first or second down and force teams into passing situations. They hurt the Bears with this tactic before. It's more difficult to generate a bigger play if you catch the Lions blitzing because of the tackling of their DBs and linebackers. Williams' streak of 193 straight passes without an interception is definitely in jeopardy here. Edge Lions

Bears Running vs. Lions Run Defense

DJ Reader and Alim McNeil McNeill give the Lions defensive interior the kind of DT-blockade the Bears had last year with Andrew Billings and Justin Jones, when Chicago led the league in run defense. Middle linebacker Jack Campbell is good insurance behind those two if someone gets past. The Lions are fourth against the run, and it takes a team that can inch out extra yardage when necessary with hard, powerful runs to punish tacklers and extend drives. The Bears' running game is big-play style now and lacks toughness necessary to scrap out 2 yards instead of 1 or 3 yards instead of 2. The Bears average a broken tackle every 42.9 rushing attempts, according to Stathead/Pro Football Reference. That's next to last in the league. Edge Lions

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Lions Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter need to win consistently to keep Jared Goff off balance with the pass rush. Bears pass rush inconsistency can lead to big plays against their coverage scheme, one that's fairly predictable. The Bears can't get in situations where they're blitzing to pressure Goff because offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will easily scheme up wide-open receivers for big gains after the catch. Jameson Williams adds a level of deep threat for the Lions that the Bears experienced once last year in Detroit when they blew a 12-point lead late in a 31-26 loss. Edge Lions

Lions Rushing vs. Bears Run Defense

David Montgomery is the kind of hard runner who can hurt this Bears defensive front since he can get players out of their gaps easily by breaking a tackle or jump-cutting. Usually the Bears protect the flank well because they stress stout edges in their single-gap defensive line approach, so Jahmyr Gibbs would be more of a threat for big plays made off quicker cuts inside or to the backside against the blocking flow. The key to how well the Bears played against the Lions last year was their top-ranked run defense. They are 20th against the run now and no better at it than any other mediocre NFL defense. Edge Lions

Special Teams

The Bears can't even get a field goal off without getting it blocked or field a rolling punt properly. Edge Lions

Coaching

The inability to cope with pressure situations and end-of-game scenarios is very telling about Matt Eberflus, but in this one they shouldn't have to worry about the last few minutes of the game. Edge Lions

Intangibles

Detroit has not won on Thanksgiving since 2016. This is more a function of who they've played and who they've been rather than who they are now. Eberflus has only three road wins in his three-year career and all came against losing teams. As good as Williams looked the last two weeks, he still has been a below-average quarterback in road games, with the exception of their London game as a home team. He hasn't handled road situations well at all and now has to contend with only a few days of prep for the first time. Edge Lions

Final Score: Lions 31, Bears 17

This could way uglier than 14 points, maybe even like the 41-10 game in 2022, because the Bears defense is on a downward spiral and the offense really can't say it has arrived until it is putting up bigger numbers in road games. They have 53 points in four road games.

Latest Line: Lions by 10 1/2, over/under 48 1/2 (Fan Duel)

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.