Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions: Who Wins and Why

A Week 16 comparison between the position groups of the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions with a prediction as Caleb Williams and company try to snap an eight-game losing streak.

Gene Chamberlain

Terell Smith makes the tackle on Amon-Ra St. Brown in the Thanksgiving Day 23-20 Detroit victory over the Bears.
Terell Smith makes the tackle on Amon-Ra St. Brown in the Thanksgiving Day 23-20 Detroit victory over the Bears. / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
In this story:

Like everyone, Bears coach Thomas Brown saw the missed opportunities on errant open passes by Caleb Williams last week but had a different explanation than others.

The popular explanation was all the beatings Williams absorbed, with a league-high 58 sacks, so little early scoring by the Bears, the losing, and so many different offensive coordinators or play callers this season finally combined to break the rookie passer.

It wasn’t a disaster on such a grand scale, Brown said.

“I think it's more to do with just how the game played out,” Brown said. “And when it comes to some early pressures, guys get an edge, moving off a spot, not getting his feet set.

“It was kinda more about that than an accumulation of the rest of the season.”

There will be plenty of people watching then when Williams comes back out to face a Detroit defense with so many missing players it almost seems like they’re starting their practice squad.

Actually it’s five missing starters and six backups, but the weakside linebacker position has been a real problem. The Lions have been without the starter, backup, third-string and fourth-string players at this position. That's all.

It’s the Bears and the Lions in the cold on the lakefront for Week 16. Here’s who wins and why.

Bears Running vs. Lions Run Defense

Missing DT Alim McNeill now is a huge blow and the weakside linebacker issues would be a devastating situation for Detroit against a good running team with an efficient offensive line. The Bears are a poor running team, ranking 26th, and they’re offensive line has been the epitome of inefficiency. The Bears should have tackle Braxton Jones back, which can’t hurt, and Roschon Johnson’s return lets them have someone other than Doug Kramer to carry the ball at the goal line. But they rank last in picking up yards running behind left tackle (2.59 yards a carry) and 30th behind right tackle (2.86 ypc) according to NFLgsis.com.  They’re facing the sixth-ranked run defense. Or are they? They’re really facing a bunch of players who back up the sixth-ranked run defense or back up the backups.  No Edge

Bears Passing vs. Lions Pass Defense

It’s here where the Bears do have a chance to be spoilers. Protection shouldn’t be a huge issue without McNeill. The pass rush for Detroit will need to come from Za’Darius Smith and anyone blitzing. The Bears should be able to pick this up, even with an offensive line so porous. Detroit is playing plenty of man-to-man coverage in a secondary with backups and that's dangerous. DJ Moore, in particular, should be able to create big plays. The Bears have two backs who can make big plays in the passing game like Buffalo’s backs did last week with D'Andre Swift and Johnson. The Bears were lighting up Detroit’s secondary in the second half on Thanksgiving with the passing game, getting Moore open on shorter throws for yards after the catch. Anticipate they’ll try this again, and attempt throwing to Swift, as well. The Lions are 26th against the pass, and that was a poor ranking built with a healthier group of starters. Edge Bears

Lions Running vs. Bears Run Defense

Gervon Dexter’s possible return would be a boost for the Bears defensive front but they’ve had problems stopping the run all year even with him and rank 26th in yards allowed per rush. They are 30th stopping runs around right end, 20th stopping runs off right tackle and 30th stopping runs behind right guard according to NFLgsis.com analysis. So that side of the run defense is obviously a problem. Jahmyr Gibbs is plenty capable of providing the big-play aspect of the Lions running game and they’ll rely on veteran Craig Reynolds for the physical aspect. Whether the Bears capable of stopping the Lions’ offensive line is the real question. Detroit is relatively healthy here, with a few minor bumps and bruises. Edge Lions

Lions Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

Detroit still has its receivers, and especially Amon-Ra St. Brown, and keeps QB Jared Goff well protected. It’s why they were able to stay with Buffalo even as their own defensive players  were rerouted into the sideline injury tent.  Goff can be expected to pick on Tyrique Stevenson but Kyler Gordon has the tough assignment since St. Brown is often in the slot or middle of the field. Having Elijah Hicks back at safety could help the Bears secondary prevent longer plays but the middle of the field and especially the tight end position have been tough for the Bears to cover all year. Edge Lions

Special Teams

A mismatch in punt and kick returns favoring the Lions, where they are third as a team returning punts and the Bears are 20th defending punt returns. Detroit leads in kickoff return average (33.6) and the Bears are 21st defending them. However, Detroit is next to last defending kick and the Bears rank fifth returning them with a 29.4-yard average. Cairo Santos has the outdoor edge in field goals while Jack Fox might be the NFL’s best punter for average but also has been punting indoors all but one game. No Edge

THE LOWDOWN ON COORDINATOR BEN JOHNSON RELATIVE TO THE BEARS

BEARS CAN GET MORE FROM ROSCHON JOHNSON THAN THEY'VE ASKED

LIONS LOOKING HEALTHIER TO FACE BEARS BUT STILL DEPLETED

TASK LOOKS TOO TALL FOR A BEARS MOVE UP IN DRAFT 'TANKING' ORDER

Coaching

Huge advantage here for the Lions going against a staff with two games, particularly offensive coordinator Ben Johnson against Eric Washington’s Bears defense. The Bears have given up 30 and 35 points since Matt Eberflus was running the defense. The Bears offensive braintrust needs to find a way to get scoring early in the game before they fall too far behind, which puts extra pressure on Williams. It’s 13 out of 14 games they’ve fallen behind first and playing from behind rarely works. Edge Lions

Intangibles

A huge edge for the Bears here with the weather in the high 20s and a wind chill. Dan Campbell can talk all he wants about practicing outdoors but they’ve played one game outdoors all year. Not only is it a special teams advantage with the wind and cold but Goff’s passer rating when the temperature is 39 and below is 75.53 but his career rating overall is 95.1. Edge Bears

Final Score: Lions 26, Bears 20

The Bears haven’t quit and this is obvious, and they’re not overmatched in personnel in many areas due to Detroit's injuries. The difference at home won’t be Williams’ rookie QB issues. The difference is  Detroit’s offensive line and running game eventually allowing its passing game to unfold and take a toll on the Bears' defensive front. The Lions' calling card under Ben Johnson is the running game and play-action. He makes his impression Sunday in a city where they need someone who does what he does with an offense.

The Line: Detroit by 6 1/2, over/under 47 ½ (Fan Duel)

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.