Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers Game Day Preview

A look at the key statistics, trends and individual matchups with TV, radio and betting information for Sunday's season finale between the Bears and Packers.

Gene Chamberlain

Packers tight end Tucker Kraft has become a dangerous red zone threat with seven TD catches this season.
Packers tight end Tucker Kraft has become a dangerous red zone threat with seven TD catches this season. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
In this story:

Chicago Bears (4-12) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Kickoff: Noon Sunday

Where: Lambeau Field, Chicago

TV:  Fox (Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin)

Radio: ESPN AM-1000 (Jeff Joniak, Tom Thayer, Jason McKie)

Sirius XM NFL Radio, channels 106 and 382

Spanish Radio: Latino Mix 93.5 FM (Omar Ramos, Mateo Moreno)

The Line: Packers by 9 1/2 , over/under 40 1/2 (Fan Duel)

Chicago Bears On SI Prediction: Packers 30, Bears 13  

Chicago Bears On SI Record in Bears Games: 14-2 straight up, 8-8 ATS, over/under 7-9.

The Series:   The 210th game overall between these primordial rivals. The Packers lead the series 108-95-6.  The Packers won the game at Soldier Field Nov. 17 20-19 on Karl Brooks’   blocked 46-yard field goal try, a kick by Cairo Santos as time expired.

The Coaches: Bears interim head coach Thomas Brown has an 0-4 record after taking over as interim head coach when Matt Eberflus was fired, so he hasn’t faced Green Bay.

Packers  head coach Matt LaFleur is 70-36 overall and 11-0 against Chicago. He has a 38-11 record at home.

The Teams:  The Bears are trying to avoid a franchise single-season record 11 straight losses and their 20th straight road loss. They have lost 11 straight to the Packers, a record for this series. Brown has hopes after this week of an interview for the team’s head coaching job as the search can officially begin with candidates already on teams on Wednesday. QB Caleb Williams had thrown 353 straight passes without an interception before getting picked off to end the Bears’ chances in the final minute of a 6-3 loss on Thursday Night Football against Seattle. He’s looking to rebound and also get the Bears off to an early lead. They are the only team in NFL history to trail first 15 times in a season. It could be the final game with the Bears for several Bears starters, including Keenan Allen, Coleman Shelton and Matt Pryor.

Green Bay has wrapped up the playoffs and is trying to get the sixth seed. Currently, the Packers are tied with Washington but trailing in tiebreaker for the sixth seed. As sixth or seventh seed they could play the Eagles or Sunday’s Vikings-Lions loser in the first round of the playoffs. Green Bay has lost to all three of those teams in its five games with them and would have an 0-5 record in the NFC North if not for the blocked field goal win. The Packers lost last week to Minnesota 27-25, rallying from down 27-10 with two late TDs but they couldn’t get the ball back on their final onside kick attempt.

Stat Leaders:   For the Bears, Caleb Williams is 330 of 533 for 3,393 yards with 19 TDs and six interceptions with a passer rating of 87.4 and 6.4 yards/attempt. Running back D’Andre Swift leads in rushing with 894 yards on 233 carries (3.8 yards a carry). RB Roschon Johnson leads in TD runs with six.  WR DJ Moore has 89 receptions for 880 yards to lead the team. WR Keenan Allen leads in TD catches with seven. … LB T.J. Edwards has the Bears lead in tackles with 125 and tackles for loss with 11.  DE Montez Sweat leads in sacks with 5 ½ and forced fumbles with two. CB Jaylon Johnson and CB Tyrique Stevenson lead in interceptions with two each and Stevenson leads in pass breakups with 11.

For the  the Packers, QB Jordan Love has completed 261 of 413 (63.2%) with 3,320 yards, 25 TDs and 11 interceptions for a 97.3 passer rating and 8.0 yards per attempt. RB Josh Jacobs has 295 rushes for 1,285 yards (4.4 ypc) and 14 TDs to lead in each category. WR Jayden Reed leads in receptions with 53 and yards at 809 while TE Tucker Kraft has the TD reception lead with seven. … LB Isaiah McDuffie leads all Packers active for Sunday’s game with 94 tackles and LB Edgerrin Cooper has the lead in tackles for loss with 12. DE Rashan Gary has the lead in sacks with 6 ½ and C Keisean Nixon leads in fumbles forced with three. S Xavier McKinney owns the lead in interceptions with seven and pass breakups with 10.

Injury Report: For the Bears, S Elijah Hicks (ankle), G Teven Jenkins (calf) and RB Travis Homer (hamstring) are out.

For the Packers, CB Jaire Alexander (knee), DB Zayne Anderson (concussion), tackle Andre Dillard (concussion), LB Quay Walker (ankle) and DB Evan Williams (quad) are out. WR Christian Watson (knee) and OLB Brenton Cox  (foot) are questionable.

Matching Up: The Bears are 32nd (last) in offense,  29th passing and 25th rushing. They are 29th in scoring. Chicago is 25th on defense, 27th against the run and 29th against the pass. They’re 12th in points scored.

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The Packers are seventh on offense, 12th passing and fifth at rushing. They are eighth in scoring. Green Bay is eighth on defense, 17th against the pass and sixth against the run. Green Bay is sixth in scoring defense.

Of Note:   The Packers would win sixth seed with a win and a Commanders loss. Otherwise, they are seventh seed.  … Jacobs’ TD runs in seven straight games has tied a record from 1960 set by Paul Hornung. … Jacobs, who is fifth in the NFL in rushing, earned his third Pro Bowl selection but first for the NFC. … The Packers’ 11-game winning streak over the Bears is not their longest winning streak over any opponent. They won 15 straight from the Chicago Cardinals from 1937-46. … Love’s last interception was in the Nov. 17 game against the Bears and was made by Terell Smith. … Caleb Williams has taken the fourth-most sacks of all time with 67. He needs two sacks to pass David Carr (2005) and six to pass Randall Cunningham (72, 1986). Carr’s total of 76 as a rookie in 2002 is the NFL record.

Key Individual Matchups

Bears WR DJ Moore vs. Packers S Xavier McKinney

Will the top Bears receiver test the Packers’ top safety deep? Williams has seemed reluctant at times to push the ball downfield, and if he does then it’s not on target.  His 6.4 yards per pass says as much, as does Moore’s career-worst 9.9 yards per catch. Moore has had seven catches per game over the past seven, but in the last four games he hasn’t gone over 68 yards.  McKinney’s seven interceptions is second in the league, trailing only Kerby Joseph, and he has allowed only a passer rating when targeted of 81.9.

Bears LB T.J. Edwards vs. Packers RB Josh Jacobs

The league’s fifth-leading rusher with 1,285 yards on 295 carries, Jacobs makes the Packers offense work as the leading ball carrier and the object of play-action fakes. The Bears and Edwards held him to 4.2 yards a carry for 76 yards in the first game, but at the time they had Matt Eberflus calling the defenses. Edwards’ 125 tackles is 30 short of his total last year with the Bears but he has made a career-high 11 for loss. Edwards, the weakside linebacker and 3-technique Gervon Dexter are the keys to the Bears defensive front.

Bears LT Larry Borom vs. Packers Edge Rashan Gary

The real mismatch on the line. Gary has made 5 ½ of his 6 ½ sacks in the last 10 games as he has come on strong after a slow start due to injury. One of the sacks came in the first game against the Bears but he was going against left tackle Braxton Jones on that play. The Packers will move Gary from side to side and keeping him away from Darnell Wright would make sense as Wright is graded 19th best tackle in the league this year by Pro Football Focus. Of his 267 plays this year on offense, Borom has been at left tackle protecting Williams’ blind side for 233 of them and has given up six sacks. That’s as many as Wright has allowed on the other side for 959 snaps.

Bears CB Jaylon Johnson vs. Packers WR Jayden Reed

Johnson earned his second Pro Bowl berth this week, thanks to league coaches and players voting. Although he’s not a slot cornerback, Johnson might even move down there to help blanket the top Packers receiving threat if Kyler Gordon isn’t handling Reeds in the slot. Johnson has a 90.3 passer rating against according to Stathead/Pro Football Reference and is allowing 65.4% completions. The 5-11, 187-pound Reed needs 11 catches to reach his 64 total of last year but already has gone over his yardage total of last season at 809. His catch percentage is up too, at 72.6% from 68.1% as a rookie.  But he’s still two TDs short of last year’s effort with six total.

Bears DE Montez Sweat vs. Packers RT Zach Tom

Tom is only graded by PFF  one spot below Penei Sewell, at fifth in the league. Tom followed The fourth-round right tackle has had no problem keeping Sweat from Love in two previous games. He is graded as the third-best run blocker at right tackle, again just behind Sewell. For the year, Tom has allowed three sacks and 22 pressures.  Sweat isn’t having the kind of year he had in 2023 and has 5 ½ sacks, although this leads the Bears. He has 21 pressures for the season according to Stathead. That’s the same number he had for only nine games with the Bears last year.


Bears TE Cole Kmet vs. Packers LB Edgerrin Cooper

For the third time in the last nine games, Kmet wasn’t targeted again last week. It would seem to be the fault of this offensive system and not necessarily Kmet, as he wasn’t used too much by Shane Waldron as play caller earlier, just like he isn’t being used by interim head coach Thomas Brown. Kmet has had six catches in the last five games. He did have three for 42 yards against the Packers last game. It seems a waste when Kmet has been in the top 2 for tight end reception percentage all year (84.9%). The Packers would like to have Cooper covering a tight end because then they can keep a safety free in coverage deeper or causing havoc. Cooper has done the job with an outstanding 74.9 passer rating against and 60% completions allowed (18 of 30)  with an interception. He also had 21 tackles in his last two games.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.