Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers: Who Wins and Why

The last matchup of positional groups in the 2024 season for the Bears, at Lambeau Field against Green Bay, with a prediction on the final score.

Gene Chamberlain

The scene at Soldier Field in November after Cairo Santos' game-winning 46-yard field goal try was blocked.
The scene at Soldier Field in November after Cairo Santos' game-winning 46-yard field goal try was blocked. / David Banks-Imagn Images
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It's the time of the season when teams can check out early.

With nothing to play for in the standings or playoffs, the Bears could easily be a team going through the motions Sunday even if it is Green Bay they face.

"Nobody's checked out," interim coach Thomas Brown insisted. "That's not a problem. We have some other issues and other problems, but that's not one of them."

What has been a Bears problem all season is a slow-starting offense.

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Another issue has been a defense struggling to stop the run through much of the season.

Also, a rookie quarterback knowing when and where the opportunity for bigger plays is staring him in the face has been an issue.

There is also the problem of the quarterback getting sacked, mostly because of the line's problems but sometimes because Williams is holding the ball or moving into the teeth of the rush.

And then there is the running game rarely used enough or effectively has plagued them throughout the season.

Finally, there is constant, disruptive change, whether it's injuries on the offensive line or even the changing of head coaches, offensive coordinators and passing game coordinators.

There's little doubt most of these problems were either unforeseen or not taken seriously if before training camp. Perhaps only the quarterback issue could have been anticipated because rookie quarterbacks usually struggle to some extent.

If they were expected, Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus didn't do enough to ensure they had been addressed.

After the firing of Eberflus, it became apparent there was an underlying lack of locker room trust that really surfaced back in his first year. It's what you'd expect considering the HITS principle.

It has all added up to a Bears season which could end historically. They've never had an 11-game losing streak within a season, although they did have a 14-game losing streak spanning two seasons under Eberflus.

The Bears most likely will have a new coach when they play again after Sunday. For now, all they can do is play the rival Packers and try to end an 11-game losing streak against the Packers to prevent an 11-game losing streak within the season.

It's the Bears and Packers in the finale at Lambeau Field. Here's who wins and why.

Bears Running vs. Packers Run Defense

There is no adequate explanation for what happened in the first Bears-Packers game because the Bears controlled the clock and ran it almost at will on the Packers and they really haven't been able to do that or even tried against other teams to much extent since the Hail Mary loss to Washington. The Packers, on the other hand, are sixth in the league at stopping the run and one area they've been relatively healthy at is in their defensive front. Part of the reason was Caleb Williams ran for 70 yards and came within a yard of matching D'Andre Swift. The chances of something like this happening again appear slim when they're using two substitute offensive linemen and they've averaged 83 yards on the ground since that game with the Packers. Edge Packers

Bears Passing vs. Packers Pass Defense

Williams' streak of passes without an interception is over at 353 straight, but does this mean he'll continue protecting the ball or will he just begin winging it in the season finale? Completing less than 60% in two of the last three games shows his accuracy hasn't been there, if it ever was. The passing game has been at its best when tight end Cole Kmet has been targeted regularly. He has only six targets with six catches in the last five weeks. The offensive line will again be in tatters with backups Larry Borom and Jack Curhan on the left side blocking. Packers safety Xavier McKinney makes the next interception seem only a few plays away, and Green Bay, overall, is third in the league in interceptions. The Packers are seventh in the league in sacks and could easily push the 67-sack total allowed by the Bears up over 70. Edge Packers

Packers Running vs. Bears Run Defense

Stopping the run at this time of the year, after 10 straight losses, requires more than intestinal fortitude. They're giving up 133 yards a game on the ground in the streak and are trying to stop Josh Jacobs, who averages 80.3 yards a game rushing. Emmanuel Wilson is also a problem for the Bears defensive front as he averages 4.8 yards a carry. The Bears have struggled to prevent big gainers and haven't allowed less than 106 yards rushing in a game since Oct. 6. Edge Packers

Packers Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

Jordan Love was in the midst of a wild stretch of interceptions when the Bears ran up against the Packers last time. He isn't now. He has become smarter with his decisions and the only receiver he has who is a real injury question is Christian Watson. The Bears play spotty defensively against the pass. As coordinator Eric Washington said, they are inconsistent. Montez Sweat and the pass rush get a little heat on occasionally but not all game. The coverage usually isn't bad but on occasion gives up a big play and being down to their fourth safety at one of the positions doesn't help. Sweat hasn't had much success rushing off either edge against Green Bay tackles. Edge Packers

Special Teams

It's rare when the Bears decisively lose the special teams battle but one time they did was to Rich Bisaccia's groups in the first Packers game. A blocked field goal decided the game. The Bears will need Cairo Santos to have great directional control on kickoffs because Keisean Nixon averages over 30 yards on kick returns. Santos still gives the Bears a kicking edge with veteran stability and proven accuracy even if he had one blocked last game with the Packers. It was more a matter of the Packers stretching the kick-rush rules and the Bears not bothering to block than anything else. There hasn't been much of a punt or kick return game for the Bears since losing DeAndre Carter for the season to injury. No Edge

Coaching

Thomas Brown hasn't found the way to unlock the secret to poor Bears offensive starts. Matt LaFleur is going for 12-0 against the Bears so it's obvious he has understood the importance of this matchup all along. He was winning over the Bears before the Vikings and Lions were able to do it. Edge Packers

Intangibles

Jaylon Johnson this week used colorful language directed toward the Packers in describing how he'd approach this game and said he anticipates the full team feels this way about facing Green Bay. Bravado is easy in the safety of one's own locker room. The Bears have no real incentive and are at a place where they haven't won since 2015. Many of the players and possibly all the coaches will not be representing the team on a game day after Monday. The Packers' incentive is real in terms of seeding. Edge Packers

Final Score: Packers 30, Bears 13

At last, with the final gun, the nightmare the Bears have lived since the Hail Mary pass will end.

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.