Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers: Who Wins and Why

Can Caleb Williams and Thomas Brown reverse the trend of defeat? Here's a breakdown of the positional group matchups to determine who has the edge in Bears and Packers for Week 11.

Gene Chamberlain

Jordan Love throws against the Bears secondary in his first game as the official Green Bay starter last season.
Jordan Love throws against the Bears secondary in his first game as the official Green Bay starter last season. / Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
In this story:

Outsiders often wonder about the disfunction with the Chicago Bears organization.

So often it’s been said to exist, throughout various coaching and general manager incarnations. It’s difficult to explain its exact nature, however.

Then something happens, like this week’s firing of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron within season.

“We have really struggled over the last three weeks, and I just thought it is the best things right now for the Bears–for our football team where we are in the season–was to make that adjustment,” coach Matt Eberflus said.

The Bears adjusted by replacing an offensive coordinator, whose team scored only four field goals and no touchdowns over two weeks, with someone who ended their last stint as a coordinator by not scoring a single point for two weeks.

It’s as if the Bears keep reliving the famed movie scene.

"You know, Lloyd, just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this … and totally redeem yourself!" And off Harry Dunne and Lloyd Christmas go, riding on a minibike together after Lloyd traded in the van that looks like a dog for the new wheels.

Amid this backdrop, Team Turmoil tries to end a three-game losing streak and a 10-game losing streak to their biggest rival, the Green Bay Packers.

Albert Einstein is often credited with saying the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results.

If it’s true Einstein said this, it’s also possible he might have defined it differently had he seen how the Bears operate.

On the lakefront Sunday, it’s the Bears and Packers playing for the 209th time. Here’s who wins and why.

Bears Passing vs. Packers Pass Defense

Xavier McKinney, Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary and the Packers defense  have battled to get through this conversion to a 4-3 defense and rank in the middle of the league in passing yards allowed and sacks per game. However, they’re going against Caleb Williams and a Bears passing attack that looks like it went on vacation during the bye and never returned. In the last three weeks, the Bears rank last in yards per play (3.7), third-down conversions (15%), completion percentage (50.5%), scoring (9.0 points) and are No. 1 in sacks allowed (18). Does changing a coordinator flip a trend so severe?  Edge Packers

Bears Running vs. Packers Run defense

For a defense in the midst of conversion, the Packers seem to have the most difficult part mastered as they are eighth in yards allowed per run and 10th in rushing yards allowed. Pro Footbal Focus has been critical of some of their individual players, like Kenny Clark and Quay Walker, but as a group they’re getting the assignment accomplished. The Bears’ biggest issues in the running game have been their constantly changing offensive line due to injuries, and the inability of their offensive coordinator to use it properly. D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are there to be used properly if they only do it.  Edge Packers

Packers Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

On paper, the Bears have this one addressed. They’re fifth in team pass rush win rate, so they’re getting consistent pressure. They could stand to net a few more sacks but Sweat’s health has helped hold down the total. Their secondary has shrugged off the difficult loss of Jaquan Brisker to play solid team defense. Love’s passing hasn’t been what it was to finish last season but if the Packers’ line provides the time then he should be able to find Jayden Reed and Co. for sufficient gains. No Edge

Packers Running vs. Bears Run Defense

Josh Jacobs pounds defenses on first and second down and makes it easy on third downs for Jordan Love. The Bears’ inability to stop opponents from running, especially early in games, has easily been the biggest problem they’ve had this year. Losing Andrew Billings makes it difficult to reverse, but getting Montez Sweat healthier helps. Edge Packers

THREE KEYS TO A BEARS UPSET OF THE PACKERS

THE PLAYERS WHO GIVE BEARS A SHOT AT UPSETTING PACKERS

BEARS FRIDAY INJURY REPORT POSITIVE WITH MONTEZ SWEAT AND TACKLES

WILL CHANGE TO BEARS MEETINGS TRIGGER POSITIVE RESULT?

Special Teams

Keisean Nixon presents a big-play threat for the Packers in the return game, while DeAndre Carter has started to rev it up for the Bears in the return game.  With six missed field goals, the Packers continue to struggle in this vital area while Cairo Santos has been solid and is 6-for-7 from 50 yards and longer. Daniel Whelan and Tory Taylor have comparable punting numbers, with Taylor a little bit better dropping it inside the 20, while the Packers coverage teams allow an average of 5 yards less on punt returns and 3 yards less on kick returns. No Edge

Coaching

Matt Eberflus has had to address one crisis after another on his coaching staff, and, of course, they have the Hail Mary defeat on record as their signature play. The Packers have their problems and Matt LaFleur dealt with losing his quarterback very effectively earlier this year. Edge Packers

Intangibles

The offensive coordinator change could easily drag a team down but Eberflus is trying to paint it like a juice provider. The element of surprise is on the side of the Bears with Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator. The Packers faced him last year with the Panthers in a 33-30 Green Bay win but it was with in Frank Reich’s old offensive scheme and using different personnel. The home field won’t matter much for the Bears as disgruntled fans will have sold off many tickets to Packers fans by now. Williams has never had to contend in Chicago with poor weather yet like they’ll experience Sunday, possible rain with temperatures in the 40s and 20-mph wind. No Edge

Final Score: Packers 23, Bears 12

No one could look at the lifeless Bears offense on display last week and expect it will suddenly spring to life just because someone else is making in-game decisions. They’ll be happy to get four field goals this week and equal their output for the last two games combined. It's been 10 straight losses to Green Bay and the 11th will be a new series record. GM Ryan Poles had promised Bears fans at some point they'd overtake that team to the north. It's not going to be this year.

The Line: Packers by 5 1/2, over/under 40 1/2 (Fan Duel).

Chicago Bears on SI Record in Bears Games: 7-2 straight up, 6-3 against the spread, 5-4 over/under.

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.