Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Houston Texans: Who Wins and Why

Analysis: A score prediction on Sunday night's Bears and Texans winner based on key statistics and a position group-by-position group breakdown.

Gene Chamberlain

The Bears and Texans started preseason at Canton, Ohio and Sunday night they meet again on Sunday Night Football.
The Bears and Texans started preseason at Canton, Ohio and Sunday night they meet again on Sunday Night Football. / Kevin Whitlock / Massillon Independent / USA TODAY NETWORK
In this story:

A true indicator of whether the Bears have arrived as a team capable of winning consistently enough to be a playoff contender is to take road games.

Another is to win games no one expects they'll win, but first things first.

Last week was the opposite of this situation, as they scraped by at home against a team they should have been able to beat even in their rookie quarterback's debut. They found a way to win against a team providing a full supply of them.

They play at Houston Sunday night and teams in the NFL last year found road games to be just as difficult as they usually do. The home team won 55% of the time.

The only playoff teams with losing records on the road last year were Dallas and Cleveland, and both got bounced quickly out of the playoffs.

The good teams find ways to win enough of the road games to stack onto their high homefield win total. The Bears have won six straight at home after last week. Obviously, they have this part of the formula down.

Now it's time to work on the other part.

Never mind that they haven't won a Sunday night road game since Marc Trestman's last year as coach in 2014. They would just like to start winning road games period. The last time they won more on the road than they lost was 2020, their last playoff season.

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Sunday night they'll try to gauge how far they've actually come.

It's the Bears against the Texans on Sunday Night Football. Here's who wins and why.

Bears Running vs. Texans Run Defense

Houston's run defense relied heavily on linebacker Henry To'oTo'o last week but especially way too much on its secondary to provide run support. They had no one on the defensive front score higher than 52.1 against the run according to Pro Football Focus grades, except To'oTo'o and Will Anderson (67.7). Those weren't exactly spectacular grades. Anderson's was solid. The Bears should be able to run the ball but there's a difference between should and have or did. They didn't commit to the run and fell behind 17-0. They ran it 10 times with D'Andre Swift, twice with Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer and that's it. They did give it twice to Velus Jones Jr. but he's still listed by them as a wide receiver. They have to prove they can run before they do it. Last year's second-ranked rushing attack means nothing now as it was based largely on the threat of Justin Fields' runs. No Edge

Bears Passing vs. Texans Pass Defense

The Houston secondary is ripe for the picking with two rookies playing significant roles and after giving up three pass plays of 50 yards or longer to Anthony Richardson. That's the kind of task Caleb Williams normally could be expected to enjoy. However, the Texans can rush the passer off the edge, especially, with Anderson and Danielle Hunter. The passing is going to need to come from in the pocket and Williams is less comfortable stepping up and throwing at this point. He's a rookie QB, playing on the road for the first time. It definitely doesn't help that two of Williams' top targets, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, are injury concerns. Houston's pass defense would need to be really unstable to be challenged here. Even with two rookies, they aren't. Edge to Texans.

Bears Run Defense vs. Texans Running Game

The running attack Houston put together last week with Joe Mixon was impressive but it's easy to anticipate they'll be a bit more adventurous playing at home. If the Bears come out playing run defense the way they did in the second half last week, Mixon will meet with the same kind of failure Anthony Pollard had in last week's second half. Andrew Billings and T.J. Edwards make the Bears run defense formidable. The 159-yard effort on a whopping 30 carries by Mixon proves the Texans can run it but will they try? No Edge

Texans Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

This is a difficult matchup for both teams. It comes down to whether the Houston offensive line does a better job of keeping C.J. Stroud from being harassed than Tennessee's line did for Will Levis last week. The Bears secondary will be able to stay with Houston's receivers the majority of the time, although not all of them on every play. If the pass rush gets heat on Stroud, they can expect similar production to last week. If not, some of those plays where the secondary can't cover everyone, particularly those targeting Tyrique Stevenson, Kevin Byard, Kyler Gordon or Jaquan Brisker, will break for big plays or touchdowns. Jaylon Johnson should be able to get the job done, regardless. This is one of the best passing games the Bears go against and if they can shut it down, then no one will doubt they have a top-five defense. Most of their better efforts have come against less effective passers. Edge to Texans

Special Teams

The Bears had about as complete a special teams victory last week as an NFL team can have, except for Velus Jones Jr. playing soccer with an NFL football—he did a good job not getting it in his hands and then kicking it. Texans kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn is dependable from 50 yards or more, although his career percentage is three points below what Cairo Santos has done for the Bears. The Bears loved what they got in the return game from DeAndre Carter last week and Houston gave up over 27 yards per four kick returns, which is a high average. Edge to Bears.

Coaching

Matt Eberflus' ability to call defenses when he has a solid group of players in his scheme has become apparent, but Shane Waldron's attempt to scheme for the big play let too many chances for first downs go flying by, and Williams is the type of QB who isn't going to correct this until he's trained better to do it. Texans play caller Bobby Slowik is one of the league's bright young offensive minds and DeMeco Ryans has done nothing on the defensive side to suggest he'd have a problem facing a Bears offense with two injury risks at receiver and no running game in Week 1. Edge to Texans

Intangibles

They'll open the roof for this one, and that should make it a little less noisy. Just a little. The Bears are wearing their pumpkin helmets and uniforms again, and they're 1-3 when that mistake happens. The Bears have no history of being a successful road team and doing it against a young, rising playoff team is a recipe for disaster.  Edge to Texans

Final Score: Texans 26, Bears 13

It takes a vivid imagination to see Williams leading a victory on the road against a playoff team two games into his career. Even if last week's 93-yard day is discounted as a rookie debut learning experience, it takes proven experience to beat a playoff team on the road in prime time.

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Published
Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.