Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts: Who Wins and Why

Analysis: A look at key Bears and Colts positional group matchups as Caleb Williams tries to get the Shane Waldron offense turned around and headed forward in Game 3.

Gene Chamberlain

Keeping Caleb Williams protected hasn't been a Bears strength, as an NFL high of nine sacks allowed says.
Keeping Caleb Williams protected hasn't been a Bears strength, as an NFL high of nine sacks allowed says. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
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The goal for the Bears this week on offense looks so obvious even the Indianapolis Colts should be able to see it.

Therein lies the problem.

The Bears need to get back to the run, or get it going for the first time against a team unable to stop the run so far.

"It really comes back to us and knowing that as an offense we want to be able to establish the run in every game we play in," coach Matt Eberflus said. "The opponent will be the opponent each week. Knowing the past stats may help you lean on one thing or the other based on film study.

"But it always comes back to us. Knowing they are going to attack something and approach something that maybe was a perceived weakness the week before, they'll focus on it, try to improve it. For us it just goes back to focusing on ourselves, focusing on our fundamentals, hitting the blocks the correct way and we will be rolling."

While the Bears try to improve at an obvious deficiency to give Caleb Williams an extra weapon to rely upon, the Colts know this is important and it makes it easier for them to load up and stop it.

So the situation is set for the Bears' attempt to get a road win with their rookie quarterback.

It's the Bears and the Colts at the RCA Dome Sunday at noon. Here's who wins and why.

THREE KEYS TO A CHICAGO BEARS VICTORY OVER INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

THE BEARS BEST POSITIONED TO GIVE COLTS TROUBLES

BEARS WITHOUT KEENAN ALLEN FOR SECOND STRAIGHT GAME

CONFIDENT BEARS DEFENSE LABELS COLTS OFFENSE AS 'COLLEGE'

Bears Running Against Colts Defense

Yes, the Colts defense struggled mightily to stop Green Bay and Houston on the ground, but those two teams execute their offenses far better than the Bears execute theirs. They also had quarterbacks capable of chalking up huge gains on the ground as alternatives on zone read plays to spread out the defense's attention. While Williams has plenty of ability to run, the Bears are not designing or running many plays to take advantage of this. It's a case of their running game with backs standing on its own merit and that isn't very much so far. The blocking game with a bigger emphasis on a gap scheme than in the past two years has not been quick to develop. In addition, the Bears are dealing with injuries to both guards Teven Jenkins and Nate Davis. Both should play but none of this sets up as a particular challenge for the Colts front, even if DeForest Buckner is not playing and they're using Taven Bryan up front with their veteran standout injured. It will be easy to see the Bears abandoning D'Andre Swift's running on the road if they fall behind again.  NO EDGE

Bears Passing Against Colts Defense

Connections with DJ Moore have not been easy to make with Keenan Allen injured and the lack of a counter measure. The Bears really need Rome Odunze to step up but they'll also need DeAndre Carter this week to make big plays underneath because the slot receiver can be key against all the cover-3 zone the Colts like to play. Beating Colts slot cornerback Kenny Moore isn't going to be easy for a receiver who really was brought to Chicago to be a return man. Williams is still in the infancy and needs to begin to show he can more quickly understand where pressures are coming from presnap. Against the Colts this might be even more important because they're more likely to fake a blitz than actually throw one at him. And then there are extra defenders around the football for takeaways. Considering how fast Williams is getting rid of the ball (2.64 seconds, seventh fastest), it's time for the Bears offensive line to stand up and show it can actually pass block rather than wait for the traditional excuse about the quarterback holding the ball too long. Nine sacks allowed is disgusting. The Colts don't blitz much, but against the Bears you really don't need to do it a lot in order to get to the QB. EDGE TO COLTS

Colts Running Against Bears Defense

The Bears have shut off the run in two straight games thanks largely to defensive tackle Andrew Billings. So they've given opponents glimpses of where and how to attack their run defense before silencing it. Jonathan Taylor was outstanding last week against Green Bay after a poor start against Houston, and if you look at Pro Football Focus grades Quenton Nelson and the Colts offensive line is headed for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. They have spectacular blocking grades individually this year for an 0-2 team. The Colts should be able to do enough on the ground against the Bears for at least part of the game to earn a lead and allow their pass rush to go after Williams. Their ground game figures to be prominent in this. However, the question whether they can sustain it because no one has been able to yet against T.J. Edwards and the Bears front seven. NO EDGE

Colts Passing Against Bears Defense

The key to all of this for the Bears is for Montez Sweat and the pass rush to be able to reach Anthony Richardson or to contain his scrambling, without the linebackers and DBs getting involved. If they do this, the Colts become far more predictable and this game could become another one of those like last week, tightly fought, with a low score and one or two plays late deciding it. If they let Richardson scramble or run and throw like they did briefly with C.J. Stroud last week, then big plays by the Colts could turn in into a comfortable Indianapolis lead. Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson will need to lock it down on the top wide receiver threats so the safeties can be more aggressive attacking the run and coming up in their zone schemes. EDGE TO BEARS

Special Teams

Colts kicker Matt Gay has been nursing a quad injury. Although he came off the injury report, a kicker doesn't get over something as crucial as a quad injury with the snap of a finger. It usually takes quite a length of time. Cairo Santos had injury issues of this sort in his past and it took a long time. Gay has nine misses on field goals over the last two seasons and that's not a number a kicker in the NFL can get away with for long these days. Santos last week again showed he is a good threat over 50 yards if he has the comforts of an indoor stadium working on his side. Kick returner Anthony Gould has had a respectable start for the Colts (27.3 yards average) while punter Rigoberto Sanchez has been every bit as good as Tory Taylor as a punter at this point. NO EDGE

Coaching

Colts coach Shane Steichen is a strong strategist but his plans have been derailed by Richardson's inaccurate passing so far. It's not easy to design a game plan around a young quarterback's knack for going off script, as the Bears are already seeing with Caleb Williams. It would be good if Matt Eberflus and Eric Washington have their defense working from the outset this week after two straight games when they let the opponent surge ahead and then played catch-up, one week without any offense and the last week with a minor amount of it. NO EDGE

Intangibles

Colt desperation and the home field advantage, combined with the Bears starting a rookie quarterback are all aspects coming down heavily on the Indianapolis side. EDGE TO COLTS

Prediction: Colts 23, Bears 19

The betting line looks good for the Bears as 1-point road underdogs but their issues on offense continue to put too much pressure on their defense, and playing games on the road already are enough of a pressure cooker for any team to handle.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.