Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars: Who Wins and Why

A look at positional battles as Caleb Williams leads the Bears in an attempt for their third straight win against Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville, with a prediction on the final score.

Gene Chamberlain

Bears QB Caleb Williams scores on a run last week but the play was called back due to a penalty.
Bears QB Caleb Williams scores on a run last week but the play was called back due to a penalty. / David Banks-Imagn Images
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The last time the Bears left Chicago they traveled only about four hours for disappointment.

On Sunday, they've gone 3,950 miles to another country. Losing would be another disappointment, and there are reasons to think they could fail to win three straight games for the first time under coach Matt Eberflus.

One of them shouldn't be the trip to London.

They left on Monday night. They've had plenty of time to prepare in another country but with familiar practice situations for Jacksonville, which didn't arrive in London until 4 a.m. on Friday.

These are two opposing ways to do it and Eberflus said the number of days has less to do with succeeding than other factors.

"It doesn't seem like there's any numbers that tell you that one way or the other," Eberflus said of a success formula. "To me it's about focusing on us. That's really all we can do."

It's a London venue but it could be London, Ohio, or London Kentucky for all the Bears care.

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"To me it's about that field's the same size," Eberflus said. "It's about preparation."

And the Bears feel they were able to maintain their preparation by going early, holding meetings and practices at the same time of day locally that they would have had they been in Chicago.

If the Jaguars are going to upset a 1 1/2-point favorite, then it's going to be through effort and efficiency on the field and not because they're more used to playing in England. Half the team hasn't been over there before.

It's the Bears and the Jaguars in Jolly old England. Here's who wins and why:

Bears Passing vs. Jaguars Pass Defense

Until three weeks ago the NFL world was laughing at what Caleb Williams and the passing game had accomplished. No one's laughing after two 300-yard games and two straight Bears wins. Williams has still missed seeing some open targets downfield but those instances are rapidly decreasing. They haven't even unleashed Keenan Allen in the attack yet, but have used every other possible weapon. Even backup tight end Gerald Everett got involved last week. Anticipate Williams finds Allen this week when an underperforming Jacksonville secondary struggles to cover every Bears receiver. Allen can be a zone beater and the Jaguars love playing cover-2. The Jaguars have the worst (32nd-ranked) pass defense in the league and have this even with a decent pass rush. It becomes a matter of whether the Bears tackles give Williams the time, because DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Everett and Allen should be open. Edge to Bears

Bears Running Game vs. Jaguars Run Defense

D'Andre Swift got rolling two weeks ago but even when he made several nice runs against Carolina's porous defense last week, he couldn't gain the consistent yardage. He averaged only 3.5 yards a carry but made up for it with his receiving. Jacksonville linebackers Ventrell Miller and Devin Lloyd, and defensive linemen Jeremiah Ledbetter and Josh Hines-Allen have been tough on opposing rushers, ranking eighth overall against the run, although they really don't get challenged too much because opponents love pushing that pass button against this poor pass defense.  No Edge

Jaguars Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

Until last week this would have been regarded a mismatch. Then Trevor Lawrence hit the Colts with 371 passing yards and two touchdown passes. He should have a full complement of receivers to try and move it against the sixth-best pass defense. The difference here is the Bears are without two of their secondary starters in Jaquan Brisker and Tyrique Stevenson. It's going to be on the Bears' pass rush to help the cover guys out enough to keep pressure off reserve DBS. The bottom line is Lawrence's big passing game last week came against the 29th-ranked pass defense and not a top-10 group like the Bears, even if they are plagued by injuries. No Edge

Jaguars Running vs. Bears Run Defense

The Bears keep saying the run defense will come around but they're still 18th and got gashed last week by Chuba Hubbard. It doesn't take a bad run defense for Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne to gain yardage and break tackles. Stopping this ground game will take more than talking about it. The Jaguars have run for 127 yards or more four times. Edge to Jaguars

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Special Teams

Devin Duvernay has been one of the better return men in the league and averages 11.6 per punt return but the new kick return rule hasn't been his thing with a 20-yard average.  Cam Little has missed just one field goal, like Cairo Santos, and only three of his kickoffs have even returned. Punter Logan Cooke has a 51.7-yard average, so he has been booming them. He's averaging 3.4 more yards than Tory Taylor but has four less than Taylor (10) inside the 20. No Edge

Coaching

Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl winner but 2017 was a long time ago in Philadelphia. The head hunters are out looking for him after the first sacrifice came down last week with the firing by the Jets of Robert Saleh. Pressure is off Matt Eberflus and staff for the moment with two straight wins but the revelation this week that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was not scripting plays earlier this year might just rekindle old flames. No Edge

Intangibles

Sorry, it doesn't matter how many times you've been over to England, the travel takes something out of you. No one says otherwise. And to arrive on Friday morning after a hurricane disruption and not really get in an actual practice there is going to take something out of a team. You have to wonder if the Jaguars will be able to start fast, or if they might not have their legs come the fourth quarter Sunday. Edge to the Bears

Prediction: Bears 23, Jaguars 20

The key is how bad Jacksonville's pass defense has been.  The Bears didn't have three DBs last year in Washington against a bad pass defense and won 40-20. It can be done.

The line: Bears by 1 1/2. Over/under 44 1/2.

Chicago Bears On SI record in Bears Games to Date: 5-0 straight up, 4-1 against the spread, 4-1 over/under.

-Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.