Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and L.A. Rams: Who Wins and Why

A positional group breakdown with key statistics and trends as well as a prediction on the outcome in an attempt by Caleb Williams and the Bears to snap a two-game skid agains the L.A. Rams.

Gene Chamberlain

Matthew Stafford targets a receiver in his team's last game with the Bears, an easy win during the Matt Nagy coaching era.
Matthew Stafford targets a receiver in his team's last game with the Bears, an easy win during the Matt Nagy coaching era. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
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The Bears have beaten six straight opponents at Soldier Field and their defense has been the key in each of those wins.

They've allowed 14.7 points per game in those wins and no more than 17, so at least one half of the team seems to grasp the home-field advantage they have Sunday.

It won't be as simple as relying on their defense in this game, however.

Looking beyond numbers, their defense beat quarterbacks Brian Hoyer, Bryce Young, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Taylor Heinicke and Will Levis. Among those, only the win over Goff looks impressive because the Lions won the NFC North. Murray was coming back from an ACL tear and it obviously affected his game.

Stopping Matthew Stafford and coach Sean McVay will be a different level of accomplishment for the Bears defense, but not necessarily one indicating dominance in any form. Still, it has been done. The Cardinals held the Rams to 10.

From the list of QBs they've overcome at Soldier Field, it's easy to see why there is healthy skepticism about the Bears defense. It's just easier to see why there are doubters about Caleb Williams and the Bears offense.

Beating the Rams at Soldier Field won't rank among the great surprises by any team in the NFL this year, but the Bears must extend their winning streak at home to seven because they have yet to prove they can win a game on the road.

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If they now can't count on winning at home, then they have truly regressed.

It's the Bears and the Rams at Soldier Field at noon on Sunday. Here's who wins and why.

Bears Passing vs. Rams Pass Defense


The Rams rank 29th against the pass and only two teams have given up more than the seven touchdown passes they've allowed. The Rams pass defense is next to last in the league at passer rating against, allowing a passer rating of 127.4 while facing Brock Purdy, Jared Goff and Kyler Murray. Cornerbacks, Tre'Davious White, Cobie Durant and Quentin Lake have been unable to prevent receivers from being open but the Rams do have pass rushers in rookie Jared Verse, Byron Young and Kobie Turner. The real question facing the Bears is whether the struggling offensive line can give Caleb Williams the time to find Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and DJ Moore. No Edge

Bears Running vs. Rams Run Defense

It's weakness against weakness again here. The Rams are almost as bad against the run as the Colts were, but the Bears couldn't run in that game. They did pass, however. There is a new twist this week. An altered approach by the Bears in the running game might occur with Roschon Johnson getting more carries. The Bears need to focus on wide plays. The Rams rank no better than 20th at stopping plays run around left end, left tackle and right tackle, and are 29th stopping runs around right end. Even D'Andre Swift should proper in this one. The Bears used to know how to run when they went outside. They will again as it's easier to run at home just like it's easier to pass block at home. Edge to Bears

Rams Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

The Bears lead the NFL in passer rating against at 66.2. It's important. No team to lead the NFL at this since 2016 has failed to make the playoffs. They've done this against inexperienced QBs but against a QB like Matthew Stafford it's another matter. The key is keeping him from getting into a groove and settling into the pocket. The Bears pass rush has been greatly improved at this and the Rams offensive line has gotten Stafford sacked 10 times. The key here is how Stafford lacks Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua as targets. He'll be scraping the bottom of his receiver barrel for a full game against a top pass defense and doing it on the road. If the pressure is sufficient expect interceptions and definitely sacks. Edge to Bears

Rams Running vs. Bears Run Defense

The Rams do have an effective runner in Kyren Williams, but he hasn't been this year. He's only averaging 3.0 yards per rush. The only places they get consistent rushing yards is around left end with end-around plays and also running over right guard (4.57 per carry), where they'll run into Andrew Billings. The Bears run defense definitely hasn't been what it was last year, and what most of coach Matt Eberflus' defenses have been. They are 18th against the run, 19th in yards allowed per rush and most Eberflus defenses have been top 10 in rushing. The Bears were No. 1 last year. To top it off, Billings has a knee injury and is questionable for the game. No Edge

Special Teams

DeAndre Carter hasn't really taken consistent advantage of the kick return rule change but this is because teams have chosen to let the Bears have the ball at the 30 with touchbacks. He only has four returns, one for 67 yards. Josh Karty has made all five field goal tries for the Rams but hasn't been called upon to make any longer than 50 yards and he also hasn't had to contend with the wind. All three games were indoors. Cairo Santos is in his element outdoors and has made 6 of 7 so far, including 4 of 5 from 50 yards or longer. The one miss was 56 yards. The Bears rank only 25th at stopping kickoffs, but no one can be sure what the Rams are because they've been getting only touchbacks. The Rams give up 2 more yards per punt return than the Bears. Edge to the Bears

Coaching

Bears OC Shane Waldron is said to be from the Sean McVay branch of the West Coast offense. It's apparent that was a while ago now. McVay's ability to handle in-game situations is infinitely better than Matt Eberflus' ability to do this as Bears problems at organization showed up last week. Edge to the Rams

Intangibles

The Rams have not found Chicago a place they like to play in recent years. They haven't won there since 2003. But they have played there only three times here since then and Stafford knows all about winning at Soldier Field. He did it for the Lions in 2020 before being traded. The Bears have a full week to prepare knowing the Rams won't have their top two receivers. This matters. It wasn't the case last week for the 49ers against Stafford.  No Edge

Final Score: Bears 17, Rams 10

The Rams used their 12-personnel package extensively last week after their injuries to receives but it's not easy to do against T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds and Jack Sanborn. Anticipate the Bears as three-point favorites to finally getting their running attack going, and Caleb Williams protecting the ball better than last week. Stafford can work miracles but it might take more than a miracle for him to handle this Bears defense without his top two receivers.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.