Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings: Who Wins and Why

A comparison of position groups squaring off in Sunday's Bears and Vikings game as Caleb Williams and Chicago try to rebound from a loss by blocked field goal.

Gene Chamberlain

The Bears have lost five of their last six games against the Vikings, and the last four played at Soldier Field.
The Bears have lost five of their last six games against the Vikings, and the last four played at Soldier Field. / Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images
In this story:

An example already exists of how the Bears respond following a catastrophic event like Sunday's game-ending--and now entirely legal--blocked field goal by Green Bay

The Hail Mary pass in Washington in Week 8 started a four-game losing steak.

The Bears not only came out of the Hail Mary shell-shocked for the next game, they played even worse the following game against one of the league's worst teams before they woke up against the Packers.

So if they produced two terrible efforts in the 29-9 loss at Arizona and 19-3 blowout at Soldier Field to New England, how bad can they expect this week's game to get against the Vikings, an 8-2 power in the NFC North?

Things are different, now, however, they say.

The Bears were coming off their big win in London, a three-game winning streak and a bye week when Tyrique Stevenson lent his hand on the Hail Mary pass to end their 18-15 loss.

Everything had been going their way on offense and defense for three weeks and then it seemed like their world had ended.

But this time, they've lost four in a row with the blocked field goal, and the entire feeling isn't shock or numbness. It's not a feeling of acceptance, although this is always a danger after four straight losses.

They're ticked off, or as Montez Sweat so eloquently put it, "We're on a what, three- or four-game losing streak? I'm pretty (blank)ing frustrated. So yeah."

It's a bit easier to channel frustration and anger into the energy and emotion needed to play a game of tackle football. At least it's easier to convert than shock is.

Then again, the Vikings are not exactly the Patriots. They beat the 49ers, Texans and Packers in succession. 

So the Bears better come in at a much higher level of intensity than in weeks immediately following the Hail Mary or they'll get blown away right into Lake Michigan.

It's the Bears and Vikings in Week 12 on the lakefront at noon on Sunday. Here's who wins and why.

Bears Passing vs. Vikings Pass Defense

Caleb Williams got the ball out quick last week but the Packers are not exactly a blitz-heavy team. They did blitz at times and Caleb Williams handled it fairly well. However, this is something else entirely. Minnesota actually knows how to blitz. Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Patrick Jones II get each have more sacks than anyone on the Bears and Minnesota will be rolling in people like Ivan Pace Jr. and Blake Cashman. If Williams can get the passes off, they've already won half the battle because Minnesota's actual pass defense technique appears to leave plenty to be desired. The Bears will have their starting offensive line back together but the Bears have allowed Williams to be sacked more than any NFL QB. Edge Vikings

Bears Running vs. Vikings Run Defense

The Bears are breaking the second-lowest percentage of tackles in the league, according to Stathead and Pro Football Reference. They don't really run with power from guard to guard and that's where Minnesota is usually vulnerable. A broken tackle or two here can wind up being a 25-yard gain or more because of all the blitzing in the middle of the field. It might take using Roschon Johnson more to get that power game moving upfield against a blitzing defense. One of the side effects of using so many blitzes is it jams up running lanes. Minnesota is No. 1 against the run, No. 2 in yards allowed per carry. Edge Vikings

NO APOLOGIES FOR BEARS FROM LEAGUE FOR PACKERS' BLOCKED FG

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Vikings Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

Bears defensive coordinator Eric Washington referred to Sam Darnold as Sam Bradford this week with a slip of the tongue. Darnold is a little more mobile than Bradford ever was. He'll escape the rush and hit receivers a bit like Baker Mayfield with Tampa. Gervon Dexter and the middle of the pass rush needs to apply consistent pressure so the edges in Darnold's face and he could throw a few to Jaylon Johnson or Kevin Byard and Co. However, the Bears pass defense and rush have been fading recently and they're now ninth against the pass. With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson facing them, it could be a long day. Edge Vikings

Vikings Running vs. Bears Run Defense

Aaron Jones is a capable weapon if the Vikings use him in the running game, but they seem more interested in using him to catch passes. The Bears have always found him tough to stop either way when he was with Green Bay. The Bears run stoppers are 23rd and the Vikings are 19th running the ball, but the Bears have been stingy near the goal line against the pass and Minnesota is next to last in rushing touchdowns so it seems set up better for a defense tough in the red zone. No Edge

Special Teams

The Vikings might finally have their kicking problems solved with Will Reichard but it must be pointed out all but one of his attempts came indoors and last week he had his first two misses indoor at Indianapolis. As long as Cairo Santos can get the kick away with it being blocked, the Bears should have an edge. The Vikings have returned only six kicks and their punt return has averaged about 3 yards less than the Bears do. At least they aren't giving up 12 yards a punt return and 29 yards a kick return like the Bears have. Tory Taylor has been better distance-wise and at putting it inside the 20 without touchbacks than Ryan Wright, who has the advantage of punting indoors. Edge Bears

Coaching

Kevin O'Connell might be the best offensive coach to come off the Sean McVay coaching tree and his only loss to the Bears came when he was using a quarterback who hadn't even been with the team at the start of the season in 2023. Thomas Brown had a nice debut but what can he do against this blitz? It's the real question. It's been another week of people acting like Matt Eberflus isn't here, as the shopping lists of potential coaching candidates keep popping up online. About the only thing he said of note this week was he didn't consider giving his kicker an advantage of the hash mark he wanted at game's end last week. And then Eberflus had to wish he had been ignored. Edge Vikings

Intangibles

It's reasonable to assume the Bears will be a bit more fired up than after the Hail Mary pass, even if it might not matter. The outdoor game in colder conditions work against the indoor, toasty warm Vikings, who no longer are the Norsemen of old. Edge Bears

Final Score: Vikings 23, Bears 8 

Caleb Williams will have his eyes opened by all the blitzing and he never handled this kind of pressure well at USC. This is a game when the Bears could really use a speed threat floating out of the backfield for passes but D'Andre Swift is questionable with his groin injury. Then they can turn around and do all of this over again in four days at Detroit. Fun.

The Line: Vikings by 3 1/2, over/under 39 1/2 (Fan Duel line)

Chicago Bears On SI Record for Bears Games: 8-2 straight up, 6-4 vs. the spread

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.