Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and New England Patriots Game Day Preview

A look at the key statistics and trends in Sunday's game at Soldier Field between the Bears and Patriots, as well as key individual matchups that could determine the outcome.

Gene Chamberlain

Jaylon Johnson makes a hit on Rhamondre Stevenson to bring down the Patriots back in the open field in a 2022 Bears win.
Jaylon Johnson makes a hit on Rhamondre Stevenson to bring down the Patriots back in the open field in a 2022 Bears win. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images
In this story:

New England Patriots (2-7) at Chicago Bears (4-4)

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago

Kickoff:  Noon

TV:  Fox (Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin)

Radio:  ESPN AM-1000 (Jeff Joniak, Tom Thayer, Jason McKie)

Spanish Radio: Latino Mix 93.5 (Omar Ramos, Mateo Moreno)

Sirius XM Radio Channels 85 and 225

The Line: Bears by 6. Over/under 38 1/2 (Fan Duel, Draft Kings)

Bears On SI Pick: Bears 27, Patriots 13

The Series:   The 16th matchup with the Patriots leading 10-5. The most famous Bears-Patriots game from a Chicago standpoint was Super Bowl XX. The Bears destroyed New England 46-10 for their only Lombardi Trophy after the 1985 season. The Bears the last matchup 33-14 at Foxboro, Mass. Prior to that win, the Bears had lost five in a row to New England.

The Coaches: Patriots coach Jerod Mayo is in his first season and is 2-7. It’s his first game against the Bears. The Patriots are 1-4 on the road and their lone road win was in the opener against Cincinnati, 16-10.

Bears coach Matt Eberflus is 14-27 in his third season and won his only game against the Cardinals on Christmas Eve last year at Soldier Field, 27-16. The Bears have played 21 road games under Eberflus and have won three. They’re 0-4 on the road this season.

The Teams:  New England played one of its better games last week in losing to Tennessee in overtime, one week after surprising the Jets in a 25-22 win. The Patriots went from Jacoby Brissett to strapping rookie Drake Maye as QB starter four games ago and his development takes priority over stats and even wins at the moment. The Patriots use two-back approach with Rhamondre Stevenson getting about two-thirds of the carries and Antonio Gibson the rest. They like to throw to tight end Hunter Henry and have a young wide receiver corps, but their offense has struggled all season regardless of the QB. Their defense started strong but has had only one game since the opener when they held an opponent to less than 20, and that was the Titans  last week in a loss.

The Bears have gone from three straight wins as home team to two straight losses on the road, and what losses they were: A Hail Mary was answered in Washington and last week they were flat coming in and then were flattened by the Cardinals. Caleb Williams is being sacked at a high rate and injuries have hit their offensive and defensive lines. Williams and the offense have produced 10 first-quarter points, second-fewest amount in the league, while the normally stout defense caved it against the run last week in a 29-9 loss at Arizona.  Winning is an urgent matter for the Bears as their remaining opponents own a .548 winning percentage, the toughest remaining schedule.  

Stat Leaders:  Maye, in four games, has completed 82 of 125 (65.6%) for 770 yards, with six touchdown passes and four interceptions. He has an 85.1 passer rating. Leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson has gained 438 yards on 114 carries (3.8 yards per carry) with six TDs. TE Hunter Henry leads the Patriots in receptions with 39 for a team-high 414 yards. No one on the Patriots has more than one TD reception. … LB Jhalani Tavai leads the Patriots in tackles with 59 while DE Keion White leads in sacks with four and the two are tied for the tackles for loss lead at five. The Patriots have four interceptions and no one has more than one.

Bears QB Caleb Williams is 162 of 264 (61.4%) for 1,665 yards with nine TDs, five interceptions and a passer rating of 83.0.  RB D’Andre Swift has 505 yards on 125 carries (4.0 ypc) with four TDs to lead the team in rushing.  WR DJ Moore leads the Bears in receptions with 37 (374 yards) and WR Rome Odunze leads in receiving yards with 391 (25 catches). Moore and TE Cole Kmet lead in TD catches with three each. … The Bears defense is led in tackles by LB T.J. Edwards with 60 and by DE Montez Sweat in tackles for loss with five. CB Jaylon Johnson leads in interceptions with two and DT Gervon Dexter leads in sacks with 4.0.

Injury Report: For the Patriots, S Kyle Dugger (ankle) , LB Christian Elliss (abdomen) and edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue (personal) are out. DB Alex Austin (ankle), DL Daniel Ekuale (abdomen), G Michael Jordan (ankle), T Vederian Lowe (shoulder),  LB Marte Mapu (neck), OL Layden Robinson (ankle) and DT Jaquelin Roy (neck) are questionable.

For the Bears, T Kiran Amegadjie (calf), T Braxton Jones (knee), T Darnell Wright (knee) and S Jaquan Brisker are out. G/C Ryan Bates (shoulder/elbow), LB Noah Sewell (knee) and DE Darrell Taylor (knee) are questionable.

Matching Up:  The Patriots offense is ranked 32nd (last) in the NFL. They are 32nd (last) in passing, 24th in rushing and 30th in points scored. New England’s defense is 24th in the league, 22nd against the pass and 26th against the run. They are 21st in points allowed.

The Bears offense ranks 28th in the NFL, 29th passing and 23rd at rushing. They are 19th in scoring. Chicago’s defense is 12th in the league, eighth against the pass and 20th against the run. . They have allowed the fifth fewest points in the league.

BEARS FORCED TO SWEAT IT OUT NOW IN NFC NORTH RACE

BEARS OFFENSIVE TREND INDICATES IT'S TIME TO TRY SOMETHING DIFFERENT

Of Note:   Both teams have trouble protecting their passer. The Patriots have given up 31 sacks combined for both quarterbacks, two more times total than Williams has been sacked but for one more game. The Patriots are 30th in sacks percentage allowed (3.4) and the Bears 31st (3.5).  … The Bears are second defensively in points allowed in the second half of games. … Bears WR DJ Moore needs seven receptions to reach the 500 mark for his career. … With one more sack, Dexter would have five and no Bears interior defensive tackle has had that many for the first nine games since 2019 (Nick Williams),  The Bears are plus-7 in turnover ratio and the Patriots are minus-3. … Bears kicker Cairo Santos is tied for third in the NFL in field goals of 50 yards or longer with six.

WHAT BEARS OFFENSIVE LINE STATUS SAYS FOR GM RYAN POLES

NOW CALEB WILLIAMS DOESN'T EVEN RATE AS SECOND-BEST ROOKIE QB

Key Individual Matchups

Bears DT Zacch Pickens vs. Patriots RG Layden Robinson

Moving into the starting lineup with Andrew Billings done for the year, Pickens definitely gets to wade in with this matchup as Robinson is a rookie who has given up four sacks and currently is graded 70th out of 73 guards in the league according to Pro Football Focus. Pickens may not always be over Robinson, depending on the role the Bears have him in for a particular play. Both Pickens and Gervon Dexter are capable of being the 3-technique or the nose and could flip, so Dexter would be on him. The Patriots would really be in trouble here with Dexter on Robinson as Dexter leads the Bears in sacks. Robinson was on the injury report as questionable with an ankle injury but he went through a full practice on Friday and should be good to go.

Bears RB D’Andre Swift vs. Patriots LB Jahlani Tayai

The Patriots’ leading tackler is a big player who is in his sixth season and fourth with the Patriots after starting out in Detroit.  Swift’s speed should allow him to get to the corner against this defense and it’s there where the Patriots have had real problems. They’re giving up over 6 yards a carry around left and right end.  Tayai is graded 71st out of 82 linebackers and 80th of 82 in pass coverage. He may find himself matched up on Swift in coverage at times, and that wouldn't be a winning situation for New England.

Bears LB T.J. Edwards vs. Patriots RB Rhamondre Sweat

Edwards and the run defense need to get back to the way they played against the Jaguars, who had a double-edged threat much like the Pats have with Sweat and Antonio Gibson. The Bears completely shut down that running attack but they had Andrew Billings at the nose then. It won’t be as easy for Edwards playing off the 3-technique because neither Pickens nor Dexter have been particularly impressive as gap-shooting run stoppers. But the goal needs to be to freeze Sweat near the line of scrimmage or behind it because he’s not a back who starts and stops or runs laterally really well, but he’ll tear a defense apart running downhill through quick opening gaps.

Bears WR Keenan Allen vs. Patriots Slot CB Marcus Jones

The Patriots’ slot is quick as lightning and has a 15.6-yard punt return average but this quickness doesn’t always show up in his coverage of slot receivers and backs. He is better than last year, though, when he had a 147.9 passer rating against when targeted and allowed 80% completions. He has allowed three TD catches when targeted this year and has a 109.2. At 5-8, he’s also giving up six inches to Allen, who has only 14 first down catches this season, by far the lowest total at this point in his career.

Bears C Coleman Shelton vs. Patriots NT Davon Godchaux

Quietly the Bears center has efficiently worked his way toward the top of the Pro Football Focus grades for his position. He is now 10th in the league. The Bears haven’t had this type of center play since Cody Whitehair moved to the position for the first time, at least in the eye of PFF. Coleman has been about as good blocking the run as he has blocking the pass. The problem Shelton has here is he is one of the lightest centers in the league and must help in blocking the 330-pound Godchaux. Godchaux hasn’t exactly been a force, though. PFF grades him 87th of 124 interior defensive linemen. If the Bears get this matchup working their way they can run the ball between the tackles against a defense that hasn’t necessarily been soft inside, although it has been outside.

 Bears QB Caleb Williams vs. Patriots QB Derek Maye

A QB matchup doesn’t usually get in here but this one makes it as first pick against the third pick. Williams obviously isn’t doing as well as Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 QB. Maye has only played four games and has been promising, but his numbers are not quite there with Williams’ because of the four interceptions in four games. Williams has been able to hold down his turnovers and hasn’t been a fumbler. Maye’s running probably makes him a bigger threat to gain yards with his legs than Williams but Williams might be a better threat passing outside the pocket. An interesting contrast here, but there’s no doubt the Bears pass defense Maye faces is more difficult to beat than the one Williams is facing.

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Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.