Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and New England Patriots: Who Wins and Why

Analysis: A breakdown of position group matchups to determine who has the edge as the Bears try to shrug off consecutive painful losses against the struggling Patriots.

Gene Chamberlain

Hunter Henry is a huge problem for the Bears defense in Sunday's game and possibly his team's top receiving threat.
Hunter Henry is a huge problem for the Bears defense in Sunday's game and possibly his team's top receiving threat. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images
In this story:

There are numerous media people and fans labeling Sunday's game against New England a must-win situation for the Bears.

It's rather early for must-win.

Nevertheless, the must-win situation probably came and left for the Bears with the loss to the Commanders. Last week's loss was simply adding insult.

But yeah, this is a must-win situation.

The Bears needed to get through their first nine games 7-2 or 6-3 to have a shot at the playoffs considering the difficulty of their schedule from here on in. They can't do that now. It's the toughest schedule left in the NFL based on opposing winning percentage (.548) according to Tankahon.com. So their endeavors might be pointless.

Then again, just because the Bears didn't reach 7-2 or 6-3 doesn't mean the season ends, and it always is always possible they'll improve enough to knock off one or more of the NFC North powers they'll face in coming weeks. It could happen in Chicago considering their better play at home.

What really makes this game a must-win situation is it is at home, they face the Green Bay Packers next week and their history of 10 straight defeats against the Cheeseheads dogs them. A two-game losing streak now can very easily become a four-game losing streak, if they don't take care of business this week. A four-game losing streak in Year 3 of a rebuild is a real problem for everyone on the coaching staff, if not the Bears front office.

A number of people have speculated this week about Matt Eberflus' job status.

THREE KEYS TO A BEARS WIN OVER THE PATRIOTS

BEARS COULD BE FACING YANNICK NGAKOUE ON SUNDAY

BEARS OFFENSIVE TREND INDICATES IT'S TIME TO TRY SOMETHING DIFFERENT

BEARS LEANING ON GREATLY REVAMPED OFFENSIVE LINE AGAINST PATRIOTS

What can be said with certainty is if they lose to this New England Patriots team at home, Eberflus will be looked at with most severe of scrutiny going forward by everyone.

It's the Bears (4-4) and the Patriots (2-7) in a noon game at Soldier Field Sunday, here's who wins and why.

Bears Passing vs Patriots Pass Defense

Caleb Williams at home is not the Caleb Williams who showed up on the road for the last two games. His home passer rating is 105.1 with a 67.3% completion rate. When he's operating freely, as he did against the Rams, Panthers and even in a home game at London against the Jaguars, all of the receivers are involved and no one is running off the field during plays. New England's pass defense is shaky, though not the worst. They're 23rd in passer rating against, 22nd in overall pass defense, but they do not achieve much pressure on passers. They're 17th in blitz percentage at 24.5% according to Stathead/Pro Football Rererence, but their return is they rank 28th at getting pressure on QBs at 18.4% of the pass attempts. When you're talking about Yannick Ngakoue as the answer to your edge rush problems, then you really do have problems. Edge Bears

Bears Rushing vs. Patriots Run Defense

The Patriots invite teams to run on them, as they rank only 26th stopping the run and have given up 159 yards a game on the ground over their last seven, and have allowed no less than 112 yards on the ground in any of those seven games. When D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are allowed to get going, the Bears offense can click. The one exception was the Washington game, when they ran for 202 yards with scrambling help from Williams and still lost. They can't abandon the run unless they're hopelessly out of it because the Patriots are giving up more than 6 yards a carry to the outside on either side of the line of scrimmage. Also, losing safety Kyle Dugger due to injury is a blow to the Patriots' run defense as well as their pass defense. He plays the run like a linebacker. Edge Bears

Bears Pass Defense vs. Patriots Passing

Montez Sweat is back for the pass rush, Kyler Gordon is back to defend the slot and create havoc. The Bears have a top-3 pass defense in passer rating against and in terms of overall yards allowed they are eighth. Drake Maye makes a difference for the Patriots as they average only 165.6 yards passing without him and 196.7 with him but but his receiver corps is made up of inexperienced or underachieving receivers except for tight end Hunter Henry. Whoever the Patriots QB is, they have had six games in nine when they didn't reach 149 yards passing. Edge Bears

Bears Run Defense vs. Patriots Rushing

Even with Andrew Billings healthy the Bears struggled with run defense consistency this year. They've found those tackles for loss and for no gain provided by Justin Jones last year have been tough to replace. Getting Sweat and Gordon back helps their run defense immensely but the key cog has always been Billings and he's done for the year. The Patriots are not afraid to run and run some more, as they have the 12th most carries in the league despite being behind so much. Rhamondre Stevenson averages only 3.8 yards but is getting tough yards, and Antonio Gibson is a tough runner but always a threat with 4.3-second speed to go all the way. The biggest running threat might be Maye in RPO or as a scrambler. Edge Patriots

Special Teams

Joey Slye is one of those modern kickers with big legs and his 12-for-15 performance for the Patriots this year includes a 63-yard field goal. The weather is turning and he might find it's a bit tougher going forward. Still, he does have a range edge on Cairo Santos. Bryce Baringer has been every bit the equal of Bears punter Tory Taylor this season with 21 punts inside the 20 and a 50.1-yard average. New England's Marcus Jones is the big-time return threat at 15.6 yards per punt return that the Bears lack. Edge Patriots

Coaching

As much as Matt Eberflus' teams wilt on the road, they have built a nine-game home winning streak and play a different style of ball at Soldier Field. Key strategic blunders like failing to use timeouts or keep tacklers in bounds have not occurred at home. They even won the opener when they had no business winning it. Jerod Mayo was a curious choice for a team trying to move past Bill Belichick. His experience is with the Belichick regime. They should have moved away from that entire outdated style. No Edge

Intangibles

The home field should be a huge aid but you almost wonder if it can work the other way too, because their habit of starting so poorly on offense could lead to an early deficit again and Bears fans can boo their own team better than anyone except maybe the Eagles and Jets fans. However, the stark difference in their passing game at home over the road is enough to make this a real advantage for the Bears. Edge Bears

Final Score: Bears 27, Patriots 13

If any team ever needed a home game against an NFL punching bag, it's the Bears right now. It would be easy to see them winning only one more game this season after this one, so Bears fans better enjoy it.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.