Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers: Who Wins and Why

Key statistics, trends and position group matchups as Caleb Williams tries to lead the Bears to their first win since the second week of October. Here's who wins and why.

Gene Chamberlain

Elijah Mitchell breaks into the clear against the Bears defense.
Elijah Mitchell breaks into the clear against the Bears defense. / Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images
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Going on a road trip to play a San Francisco 49ers team with plenty of wounds, including one to their pride, is hardly the ideal situation for a head coaching debut.

Bears interim head coach Thomas Brown must end a six-game losing streak, a seven-game road losing streak and a 18-game Sunday afternoon road losing streak all at once the first time he has full control of a football team.

The 49ers rate a difficult challenge because their strengths are Bears weaknesses in many areas, and because they know how to win close games even if they haven’t done enough of it this year.

The Bears, on the other hand, have the turmoil of coaching upheaval to overcome, haven’t figured out how to win close games and are looking at something far more important than winning a meaningless December game in yet another lost season. They have Caleb Williams’ development front and center, while they also try to figure out who fits into their 2025 plans.

It’s the Bears and the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara a few days after the big shake in California.

Here’s who wins and why.

Bears Running vs. 49ers Run Defense

The Bears normally don’t break tackles. They’re last in the league in broken tackle rate. And D’Andre Swift is trying to overcome a quad injury. If Swift can’t go, they’ll have a 203-pound running back in the game in Travis Homer.  Even when they’re healthy they don’t run all that well, ranking 25th in yardage and 29th in yards per carry. They’ve been at 78 yards rushing or less in four of the last five games.  The 49ers just got gashed for 220 yards on the ground by Buffalo and 169 by Green Bay but no one would ever confuse the Bears running game with Green Bay’s or Buffalo’s. Even with injuries, the 49ers are 15th against the run. Edge 49ers

Bears Passing vs. 49ers Pass Defense

Caleb Williams is coming along and gets to go back to California, although quite a bit north of where he went to college. His 99.2 passer rating with five TDs and 64.1% completions for 827 yards in the last three games shows he’s advanced to another level, and he’ll have a healthy Keenan Allen to target, and possibly DJ Moore. Although the 49ers have had recent troubles and Williams has come on strong in, the overall trend is strongly in San Francisco’s favor. Fred Warner is the best pass defending linebacker in the league and can take the middle of the field away for Cole Kmet or Keenan Allen. The Niners have a better pass defense statistically than the Bears faced against the Packers, Vikings and Lions, although much of that is based on the pass rush of Nick Bosa and he’s likely to be unavailable. No Edge

49ers Running vs. Bears Run Defense

In their six-game losing streak, the Bears defense has held only one opponent to less than 124 yards rushing. They were trending poor when they had defensive tackle Andrew Billings but now they’re headed toward the bottom at 25th stopping the run and 29th in yards allowed per rush. If the 49ers had a proven healthy running back they could take advantage of this Bears weakness but their top two backs are out, they won’t have their best all-around blocker in tackle Trent Williams and may even be without another starting lineman. No Edge

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49ers Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

While the Bears have slid in coverage, they still rate No. 1 in the red zone, No. 11 against the pass overall and sixth in takeaways. The real problem the Bears have against San Francisco is they lack the kind of persistent pass rush to force Brock Purdy into making bad decisions like he has in recent games. They get a few sacks but vanish for parts of games. Purdy has thrown eight interceptions, three more than Williams has, but with targets like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings, he has an experienced group to target and the 49ers have remained solid in the passing game, ranking eighth overall. Edge 49ers

Special Teams

Whether it’s Samuel or Isaac Guerendo returning kicks, there’s a breakaway threat with a team averaging 27.2 per kick return. The 49ers’ Jacob Cowing has been very similar in average for punt returns to DeAndre Carter for the Bears but the Bears enjoy a solid advantage in kicking even with the two recent blocked field goals. Jake Moody has six misses for San Francisco and suffers from inconsistency. No Edge

Coaching

Kyle Shanahan and staff have been at it now since 2017 with two Super Bowl appearances and an overall record 11 games over .500. It’s a difficult coaching matchup for Thomas Brown’s debut, and the fact it’s on the road doesn’t make it easier. Edge 49ers

Intangibles

The bettors will be glad to know that 23 of the last 40 teams to switch coaches in the middle of the season have covered. The Bears are 3 ½- to 4-point underdogs against a team with proven success, but one also which still has a chance to get back and win their division even if it’s a longshot. That incentive is huge. No Edge

Final Score: 49ers 24, Bears 17

It would appear the Bears are about to find out it’s difficult to finish games with a new coach just like it was with the old one.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.