Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks Game Day Preview

A look at the key trends and statistics as well as key individual matchups in the game between the Bears and Seahawks as Caleb Williams tries to end a nine-game losing streak..

Gene Chamberlain

The Bears have beaten the Seahawks in their last two games, but trail in the series 11-8.
The Bears have beaten the Seahawks in their last two games, but trail in the series 11-8. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
In this story:

Seattle Seahawks (8-7) at Chicago Bears (4-11)

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. Thursday

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago

TV: Prime, Fox locally (Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit, Kaylee Hartung)

Radio: ESPN AM-1000 (Jeff Joniak, Tom Thayer, Jason McKie)

National Radio, Westwood One (Kevin Kugler, Ryan Harris)

Spanish Radio: Latino Mix 93.5 FM (Omar Ramos, Mateo Moreno)

The Line: Seahawks by 3 1/2, over/under 42 1/2 (Fan Duel)

Chicago Bears On SI Prediction: Seahawks 21, Bears 12

The Series:  The 20th game between these teams. The Seahawks lead the series 11-8 and 11-6 in the regular season. The Bears won in the last game 25-24 in 2021 at Seattle. They won the last two in the series.

The Coaches: Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald is in his first year with an 8-7 record, 5-1 on the road.

Bears interim head coach Thomas Brown has an 0-3 record. He took over the team from Matt Eberflus following the 23-20 Bears Thanksgiving Day loss at Detroit. The Bears have been outscored 102-42 in his three games.

The Teams: Seattle fell a game behind the L.A. Rams with a loss to Minnesota last week on a late Vikings TD and now is on the verge of elimination, but can still win the NFC West with a victory over the Bears because its last game is against the Rams.  The Seahawks have stepped up on defense down the stretch, ranking sixth overall in yards allowed since Week 11. Geno Smith has had a roller-coaster season with five 300-yard passing games, which ties him for most in a Seahawks season with Russell Wilson. The season on offense has been marked by the rise of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 93 catches are seven short of the Seattle record for a season.

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The Bears are trying to avoid a 10th straight loss and are ninth in draft order. QB Caleb Williams owns a streak of 326 throws without a pick but the defense has given up 422 yards a game over the last five as they’ve dropped from top 10 to 26th overall.  

Stat Leaders:  For Seattle, Smith has completed 370 of 528 (70.1%) for 3,937 yards with 17 TDs but 15 interceptions with a 90.4 passer rating.  Leading rusher Kenneth Walker III is unavailable due to injury and Zach Charbonnet is the rushing leader in the game with 453 yards on 106 attempts (4.3 yards a carry) and a team-high eight TDs.  WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads in receptions with 93 catches, 1,089 yards and six TDs.  … S Julian Love is Seattle’s tackles leader with 98 while D-lineman Leonard Williams leads in tackles for loss with 12. He is tied for the lead in sacks with Derick Hall at 7. CB Riq Woolen is the leader in pass breakups with 13 while CB Coby Bryant leads in interceptions with three.

For the Bears, Williams is 314 of 505 (62.2%) for 3,271 yards with 19 TDs and five INTs for a passer rating of 89.3. RB D’Andre Swift leads in rushing with 841 yards on 221 carries and Roschon Johnson leads in rushing TDs with six.  WR DJ Moore has the receptions lead with 83 and yards with 826 while WR Keenan Allen leads in TD catches with seven.  … LB T.J. Edwards has the tackles lead with 119 and tackles for loss lead with 10. DT Gervon Dexter leads in sacks with 5.0 and the interceptions lead belongs to CBs Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson with two each.

Injury Report: For the Seahawks, RB Kenneth Walker III (ankle) and TE Brady Russell (foot) are out.

For the Bears, G Teven Jenkins (calf), S Eljah Hicks (ankle), S Tarvarius Moore (knee) and RB Travis Homer (hamstring) are out. DT Gervon Dexter (knee), C Doug Kramer (shoulder) and LB Amen Ogbongbemiga (hip) are questionable.

Matching Up: The Seahawks are 14th on offense, fourth passing and 30th rushing. They are 15th in scoring. Seattle is 17th on defense, 16th against the pass and 18th against the run. The Seahawks are 12th in scoring defense.

The Bears are 31st on offense, 27th in passing and 25th at rushing. They are 26th in scoring. Chicago is 26th on defense, 23rd against the pass and 26th against the run. They rank 13th in scoring defense.

Of Note: Williams’ 3,271 yards ranks sixth in Bears history for a single season. … Although the Seahawks had had a reputation for explosive offense, Njigba’s 1,089 yards make him the first player since both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett went over, 1000 yards in 2020.  … Seattle’s four straight road wins are its most since 2020. … Metcalf needs 3 yards receiving and a TD catch to join Randy Moss as the only NFL players to have 50 catches, 900 yards and five TD catches in each of their first six seasons. … Swift needs 65 yards from scrimmage for a career high 1,264 from scrimmage, breaking the mark he set with the Eagles last year. … The Bears have converted 21 fourth downs, the second most in the NFL.  … The Bears defense is third in the NFL  in red zone TD percentage allowed (47.5%) and third in red zone takeaways (5). … The Bears have been outscored 86-20 in first quarters. … The only defeat in Seattle’s 5-1 road record was against Detroit.

Key Individual Matchups

Bears CB Tyrique Stevenson vs. WR DK Metcalf

It’s unlikely they would stick with Johnson all game on Metcalf with Jaxon Smith-Njigba now a real threat. The Bears have been switching up coverages and assignments to keep offenses off balance. It would be easy to see them playing Tyrique Stevenson on Metcalf some, with safety help, because Stevenson is a bit closer in size and a very physical cornerback. Either way, he or Johnson would have their hands full with a 6-4, 235-pound wide receiver who can get the jump ball. As much as Stevenson has been maligned for the Hail Mary and a few other mistakes made, he hasn’t had a bad season statistically with a passer rating allowed of 86.4 and only 55.8% completions when targeted. Last year he allowed nine TD passes and this year only four so far, according to Stathead/Pro Football Reference. Metcalf has had a so-so year by his standards, with half the TD catches (4) he had last year (8) and 215 yards less than he had for last season.

Bears CB Jaylon Johnson vs. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

This could be a tag team thing between Johnson and Kyler Gordon depending upon the route run, as Smith-Njigba could line up about anywhere but definitely has ascended and is their leading weapon. Johnson/Gordon will have their hands full staying with him. Smith-Njigba has caught 73.8% of targets this year, a 6.1% improvement over last year and has 471 more yards with 1,089, as well as 30 more catches. Johnson has kept his passer rating at a solid 87.4 against with only two TDs allowed and 61.7% completions. All are strong numbers considering he most often gets the tough receiving assignment. It’s Gordon who has been victimized more with 74% completions allowed and a 111.3 passer rating against when targeted.

Bears DE Montez Sweat vs. Seahawks RT Abraham Lucas

The Bears haven’t been getting the numbers from Sweat they had last year but this could be an opportunity for him to pad those against a third-year tackle who has started the last six games. The 6-foot-6, 322-pound Abraham is graded 67th out of 80 tackles by Pro Football Focus. The third-rounder from Washington State has given up four sacks with six penalties committed in 354 snaps, or about 40% of the team’s snaps. Sweat still has 4 ½ sacks. It might be more difficult for the Seahawks to hit him with effective chipping since starting running back Kenneth Walker III is out injured.

Bears WR Keenan Allen vs. Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon

Allen has picked up the pace and now leads the Bears in receiving touchdowns as his connection heated up with Williams. He has 15 catches for 223 yards and two TDs the last two games and five TDs in the last four.  Witherspoon’s passer rating against in his second season is at 101.0 13.1 points worse than his rookie year, but he has allowed three fewer TD catches than last year when he gave up five. But his real problem is he has allowed 68.9% completions after only 58.3% last year. The Bears need to continue to take advantage of the improving pass connection they have here since Allen might not be in Chicago next year.

Bears WR DJ Moore vs. Seahawks CB Riq Woolen

Like with Allen, Moore’s numbers in terms of catches are up, but the yardage has been tough for him to come by, all shorter passes and he’s taking a beating with some of these catches. Moore made 29 catches over the last four games but for only 260 yards. Woolen is the speed merchant and outstanding athlete who has an 87.6 passer rating against and is allowing only 55% completions. He’s giving up just 6.2 yards per target. This is a tough matchup for the Bears this week and they could look to target Rome Odunze more.

Bears TE Cole Kmet vs. Seahawks LB Ernest Jones

The Bears haven’t made good enough use of Kmet as they’ve tried to get their wide receivers involved more. Kmet has only one dropped pass on the year but only had more than five targets in games twice on the year. Seattle’s linebackers offer a good opportunity to attack that area of the field with passes as PFF has Jones graded 61st out of 79 linebackers in pass coverage and linebacker Tyrice Knight 44th of 79.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.