Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans: Who Wins and Why

Predicting the winner of Sunday's noon Bears and Titans opener at Soldier Field based on positional group matchups to determine who has the edge.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams gets set to put his helmet back on and take the field in preseason. The rookie's debut is Sunday at Soldier Field.
Caleb Williams gets set to put his helmet back on and take the field in preseason. The rookie's debut is Sunday at Soldier Field. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
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It would be easy to look at the 0-14-1 record for No. 1 overall draft picks at quarterback in their starting debuts and jump to a conclusion about what is about to happen to the Bears Sunday at Soldier Field.

They're somehow favorites but only four quarterbacks chosen No. 1 overall since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 have managed to win a starting debut. That's four out of 28.

Then, consider how many of those 28 teams have had a rookie starting at quarterback with a fully assembled team on the rise, especially with the quality of targets that Williams has at his disposal. Of all the QBs chosen first since the merger, only Jeff George went to a team with a .500 record. Only three of the quarterbacks have gone to teams with more than four wins the previous year and 20 of the teams had three wins or less the previous year.

Williams chances look much different under those circumstances.

To more accurately frame what the Bears face, however, go back to last week and Ryan Poles' address to the media, his state of the Bears talk, if you will. It's the press conference he does to start every season.

Poles said he wants to see Williams play to the roster's strengths and forget hero ball except when hero ball is his only option. In other words, stay within the offense as much as possible.

"Lean on the guys around him, be instinctual, let those wild plays happen at the right time. We saw it in the preseason a little bit," Poles said. "That's gonna be important."

As Poles put it, "...when you're forced to be special, be special."

It's up to the rest of the Bears team to make certain he doesn't need to do this too often, or isn't tempted to do it too often. It's when even good quarterbacks get into trouble. Witness the interception Jalen Hurts threw over the middle early in the game with Green Bay. Throwing late and over the middle is the worst possible thing any QB can do unless a receiver is running wide open.

Can he do this against the Titans, who have talent but not time on task yet defensively to be in position all the time to stop whatever the Bears are throwing at them?

Sunday at Soldier Field at noon it's the Titans at the Bears.

Here's who wins and why.

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Bears Passing vs. Titans Pass Defense

Williams has so many targets and the tendency the Titans have said they lean towards is playing man-to-man coverage, although not entirely. Trying to cover all of those Bears targets like Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett and D'Andre Swift with man-to-man will take something better than a secondary of Chidobe Awuzie, Amani Hooker, Quandre Diggs, Roger McCreary, L'Jarius Sneed and linebackers Ernest Jones and Kenneth Murray Jr. trying to play together in a new scheme for the first time. If Williams doesn't forget his running backs and tight ends as targets, the Bears can avoid losing the game with this matchup. If he makes a few big plays besides doing that, they win this game handily. EDGE TO TITANS

Bears Rushing vs. Titans Run Defense

The hardest thing the Bears had to do when they switched from a 3-4 back to a 4-3 was fit in pieces and then get used to playing against the run. It works the other way, as well. When they switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4, they ranked 23rd stopping the run in 2015. When they switched from the 3-4 to the 4-3 they ranked 31st against the run. The Titans have Jeffery Simmons as a potential threat on the defensive line but it isn't like he was a top player in the league, ranking only 36th among defensive interior linemen according to Pro Football Focus and 38th against the run. And he's their best lineman. Their linebacker corps was pieced together with a starter added two weeks ago. D'Andre Swift has a history of coming out in first starts on fire. The Bears offensive line is healthy and they led the NFL in rushing two years ago, then finished second last year. EDGE TO BEARS

Titans Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

There are impressive targets for Will Levis: Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd, and even backs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, to go with tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. Yet, Ridley and Boyd are coming to a new team and Hopkins has been out most of preseason and training camp. They won't be at their best timing-wise. Ridley is the top target and his career was based on QBs Matt Ryan and Trevor Lawrence, not a second-year QB who has nine starts to his credit playing in a new offense. Hopkins is in Year 12 and also has a history of better passers throwing his way. Boyd is playing in an offense he played in at Cincinnati, though. They're facing a Bears secondary that could be among the top five in the league and all of them except Kevin Byard played in it last year. And Byard is an upgrade over what they were getting from Eddie Jackson in 2023 af safety. The secondary helped the Bears finish first in the NFL in interceptions after Montez Sweat's pass rushing ability was added into the mix. The Bears look like winners in this matchup because Jaylon Johnson can blanket whoever the Titans target as their No. 1 option, and the other secondary members are more than capable of handling the rest. Add in the Titans' struggles on the offensive line—the weakest part of their team. They allowed 64 sacks last year and there are still key blockers in place from that line. EDGE TO BEARS

Titans Running vs. Bears Run Defense

Pollard and Spears have the one-two punch designation for the Titans but this is a Bears run defense ranked No. 1 in the league last year. They swapped out Gervon Dexter for Justin Jones against the run and this will no doubt weaken them initially. They still have T.J. Edwards as a run-stopping weakside linebacker and Andrew Billings as a key defender up front. Tennessee's offensive line is better at run blocking than pass blocking but how much in sync are they for run blocking in this scheme when they haven't done bit before, and have a new left tackle and center? EDGE TO BEARS

Special Teams

The punt return issues still are unsettling for the Bears. The are leaning on DeAndre Carter and he was less than scintillating in preseason. Velus Jones Jr. has been one of the league's better kick returners for two years but also has a history of boneheaded plays. In the kicking and punting game, it's tough to beat the Bears' combo of Cairo Santos and Tory Taylor. Santos is over 90% since returning to the Bears and Taylor a phenom punter. Titans kicker Nick Folk is a 39-year-old guy who has recycled through the league, hits only about 83% or average level for the league nowadays. He was out of the league and had to go back to the USFL. Jha'Quan Jackson is a rookie return man for punts and kicks, a sixth-round pick who ran 4.42-seconds in the 40. Punter Ryan Stonehouse has a big leg, but does he have the touch Taylor has? EDGE TO BEARS

Coaching

The unscouted advantage is on the side of Brian Callahan and he comes in from success in the Bengals offense. His dad is a long-time successful offensive line coach. Matt Eberflus has a new offensive coordinator but the unscouted edge isn't necessarily on their side since Shane Waldron has been doing it for three years.  NO EDGE

Final Score: Bears 20, Titans 16

The Bears will find ways to overcome the mistakes Caleb Williams makes, as long as he limits the number of them. Their running game and defense should be more than sufficient to handle Tennessee and stave off a late rally that makes the score look closer than the game was.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.