Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders: Who Wins and Why

A look at how the Bears match up by position group against the Washington Commanders in Sunday's game, with a final prediction on the outcome.

Gene Chamberlain

Cairo Santos kicks a field goal against the Washington Commanders in last year's 40-20 Bears victory.
Cairo Santos kicks a field goal against the Washington Commanders in last year's 40-20 Bears victory. / Brad Mills-Imagn Images
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There has always been only one place to go in this country when you think of subterfuge, camouflage, clandestine operations and overall lack of transparency.

The Bears are going there to play Sunday and, of course, that's Washington D.C.
Dan Quinn and the Commanders are keeping alive the tradition by hiding whether quarterback Jayden Daniels will play when they know full well whether he will or not.

Matt Eberflus says it doesn't matter to them if it's Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota they face, and in years past this would have been true because they would have had trouble beating any team regardless of quarterback.
However, it matters now because the Bears actually have started strong, have their own passer functioning like a quarterback should and the rest of the NFC North seems to be falling apart around them. Now it's elite Minnesota tackle Christian Darrisaw lost for the season, after Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson was lost. The Bears could actually make something of this season even while breaking in rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

Whether the Bears face Mariota or Daniels does matter and the smart money is on Mariota. Daniels never got in a full practice this week and only had one partial practice, as the injury report said. The injury report doesn't lie. The coaches do.
Daniels is always walking around with a smile on his face. He's a tough read, so there is that possibility he'll make a triumphant return.

The best way for the Bears to go 5-2 and keep pace with the Packers and Lions, while pulling even with the collapsing Minnesota Vikings, is for Williams and the offense to make whoever quarterbacks the Commanders irrelevant. Both Tampa Bay and the Baltimore Ravens did this.
They simply put up so many points that Washington can't answer back whoever the quarterback is.
It's the Bears and Commanders in the nation's capital Sunday at 3:25 p.m. Here's who wins and why.

Bears Passing vs. Commanders Pass Defense

Baker Mayfield threw for 280 yards and Lamar Jackson for 308 yards against the Commanders while Joe Burrow hit them with 312 yards. There is capable pass defense in the form of edge rushers Dante Fowler and Dorance Armstrong but neither has ever been labeled a real pass rushing force in the NFL. The secondary has holes and is prone to being gashed for huge gains. The reason the Commanders' defense hasn't looked like it did last year when the Bears played them is Dan Quinn is a defensive guru and his scheme keeps everything in place, but that only goes so far. His blitzing has been a key but one thing Caleb Williams has done a an excellent job with has been seeing the blitz coming and then putting the ball where it belongs to burn it. Washington is 30th of the NFL pass defenses in QB passer rating against and they're facing too many threats to defend in an attack just starting to blossom. Edge to the Bears

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Bears Running vs. Commanders Run Defense

Washington's overall rank against the run is not terrible and disguises a truth about how they've performed. Only the clueless Carolina Panthers have failed to get to 100 yards rushing against them on the ground. The Bengals ran for only 124 because they found gaining yards in the air too easy. The same with the Buccaneers, who had 112. Arizona and Baltimore, with threat of mobile QBs, had huge rushing days. Washington gives up well over 4.0 yards a carry on all rushes between the tackles. It's take your pick and run there. D'Andre Swift likes getting outside, which is where it can be tougher, but losing Daron Payne sapped what run defense Washington has and the Bears should be able to move it with either Swift or Roschon Johnson against a run defense overly reliant on 34-year-old linebacker Bobby Wagner. Edge to the Bears

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Commanders Running vs. Bears Run Defense

The real threat in this game to the Bears defense can be found here because it's easy to be out of their gaps against Brian Robinson Jr. when either of the quarterbacks is capable of pulling back the ball and running it, too. And Robinson is the kind of speed/power back who can inflict damage when the gap opens. Baltimore's top-ranked run defense beat the Commanders by holding them to 52 yards and forcing Daniels to beat them through the air. It's the safest way to play defense against any team. The Bears last game started playing that way again on run defense, like they did much of last year. They held the Jaguars' double-edged rushing attack to 68 yards. They'll come out looking to stop the run again. No Edge.

Commanders Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

For all of the excitement Daniels has produced, he still rates only 22nd in touchdown passes and they're doing it mostly with short passes turned upfield on YAC. Daniels' average intended air yards, according to NextGen Stats, is behind 23 other passers. It's why his completion percentage is so high. A defense tackling hard and rallying to the ball out of zone should be able to combat this. And this describes the Bears' coverage concept perfectly. Jaylon Johnson, Tremaine Edmunds and the Bears defense rank No. 1 in the NFL in passer rating against on defense. They can be very disruptive, and also normally maintain their discipline in the pass rush in a way to discourage scramblers, as the 58 yards allowed scrambling this year says. In fact they might even do this to such a degree that they don't get as many sacks as they should. But they're getting sufficient pressure. An interesting point to this game is a team that rarely turns it over, the Commanders (3 turnovers), faces one that thrives on takeaways. The only uncertainty here is the two injuries to Bears starters in the secondary, but this didn't hurt in their last game. Depth is something they have. No Edge.

Special Teams

Austin Ekeler is averaging 32 yards per eight kick returns and is ideal for the new kick return rule because he's a running back who plays well in space. However, kickoffs don't seem to mean much when everyone is being forced to take touchbacks. Washington's Olamide Zaccheaus has been a threat as a punt returner but his 16.3-yard average is built on only six returns. Tory Taylor's hang time can cause problems for returners. The Bears get into trouble here when they ask him to kick for distance because they're not getting down in coverage well enough. Tress Way's punting average is down from other years (45.8) and he has four inside the 20. Taylor averages 3 yards more per punt than Way and has six more downed inside the 20. Austin Seibert has been more accurate this year than Cairo Santos at 19 for 20 on field goals but he's only been allowed to try two from 50 yards or longer. No Edge.

Coaching

Matt Eberflus is 2-1 coaching as a coordinator or head coach against teams with Kliff Kingsbury either as head coach or offensive coordinator, or with Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator or head coach. The loss was to the Cowboys with Quinn as defensive coordinator in 2022, but they still scored 29 points. They just couldn't stop Dallas' offense. Kingsbury and Quinn have made more difference for Washington's turnaround than any other factors, including their QB, whoever that is. No Edge.

Final Score: Bears 26, Commanders 20

No one has scored more than 21 points on the Bears defense in the last 12 games. The Bears give up a passer rating of 72.8. The Commanders' defense gives up a passer rating of 107.4. Caleb Williams will face a much less daunting challenge than will Daniels. Or Mariota.
The Line: Bears by 2 1/2 (Over/under 43 1/2)

Bears On SI Record in Bears Games: 6-0 straight up, 5-1 vs. the spread.

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.