Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings: Who Wins and Why

A comparison of position group matchups, statistics and trends from the Bears and Vikings in Week 15 with a final call on the game's score.

Gene Chamberlain

Cairo Santos kicked the winning field goal last season in a 12-10 Bears win at Minneapolis but that was so long ago in many ways.
Cairo Santos kicked the winning field goal last season in a 12-10 Bears win at Minneapolis but that was so long ago in many ways. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
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From mid-December until season's end is when intangibles take on greater significance in the NFL.

The 32 situations of each NFL team and their schedules, where they are exactly in terms of incentive to play and how they've weathered the storm of their seasons are huge factors in determining who will win or lose a game and by how much.

The Bears lost big in Thomas Brown's debut as interim head coach and head coaching candidate to a 49ers team shattered and in pieces itself. The home field made a big difference.

Putting it back together in time to go to Minneapolis and play against a twice- beaten Vikings team, still with top seed on their minds in the NFC and a possible shot at the Super Bowl, seems an awfully difficult ask for Chicago.

Every week there are upsets in the NFL, but they're usually orchestrated by a team on the rise knocking off a good team, or a really weak team catching a mediocre team off guard or looking ahead. Upsets most often happen on the home field, too.

Last week the Bills were upset 44-42 by the Rams. It wasn't entirely surprising because the Rams have been advancing already and were at home.

The last really surprising upset was before Thanksgiving when Cleveland knocked off Pittsburgh 24-19, a 3-8 team beating an 8- 3 team. But again, it was at home not in Pittsburgh.

In the same week, though, Tennessee beat Houston 32-27.

Like with Pittsburgh, it was stunning with a weak team stopping one headed to the playoffs but also because it happened in Houston. The same week did give us Cowboys 34-26 over the Commanders in Washington, but Kliff Kingsbury teams always have a knack for fading down the stretch so no one was particularly surprised.

It's less common for upsets later as the weak teams become weaker and the stronger teams are driven even more to reach the finish line before the playoffs begin.

Are the Bears even capable at this point, after firing an offensive coordinator and head coach, after all the injuries they've had in recent weeks and season-long inabilities to score early or close out games, to pulling off a major upset using a rookie QB in a dome against an 11-2 team? It's a lot to ask.

And to top it off, the Vikings are going to wear all white.

It's the Bears against the Vikings on Monday Night Football but it seem much more like the Bears against the world.

Here's who wins and why.

WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE 2024 CHICAGO BEARS?

SATURDAY BEARS INJURY REPORT: GERVON DEXTER OUT

Bears Passing vs. Vikings Pass Defense

The Bears executed a plan for attacking a blitzing Brian Flores defense perfectly in Chicago and wasted it by not getting the win in a 30-27 overtime loss. Now Flores can scheme with the crowd noise on his side and with the Bears giving up sacks regularly. Caleb Williams' passing on the road is still 57.9% completions and 78 passer rating, 19.5 points lower than his home passer rating. The Vikings still rank only 29th in pass defense but they are No. 1 in interceptions with 20 because their pressure forces mistakes. Although Williams is avoiding interceptions at a record rate, he's also among the bottom six among starters at passing against pressure per Pro Football Focus. Expect two or three interceptions in this one as the blitz heat increases, because the Viking now know what the Bears can do to counter the blitz and can come up with their own counter. Edge Vikings

Bears Running vs. Vikings Run Defense

The Vikings come in ranked second against the run and it almost seems wasted considering the Bears no longer try to run the ball much. What's lost on many because of Jonathan Greenard's pass rush skills (10 sacks) is his run-stopping ability. He has 14 tackles for loss. Pass rusher Andew Van Ginkel has 15 tackles for loss. They have 80 as a team compared to the Bears, who play a scheme designed to get in gaps and attack into the backfield and have 58 tackles for loss. D'Andre Swift is a back who can be a problem for Minnesota because of his speed but someone who can break a tackle and then run for yards is more likely to produce big plays against a gambling front. Swift has five broken tackles on the year according to Stathead and Pro Football Reference, tying him for 46th in the league, 42nd among running backs. There are four quarterbacks who broke more tackles than Swift. Edge Vikings

Vikings Passing vs. Bears Pass Defense

The Bears did a thorough job distorting the Vikings pass defense in the last game between the teams but in shutting down Justin Jefferson they learned how good Jordan Addison can be and they also let T.J. Hockenson roam free, which they do with most tight ends. That was when they had a secondary still prideful and unscorched. Since then they've collapsed and it's tough to see how they're going to contain Minnesota when they also look incapable of getting an interior pass rush on Sam Darnold, one of the hottest passers in the league. Edge Vikings

Vikings Running vs. Bears Run Defense

With Gervon Dexter injured and Andrew Billings gone for the year, the chances of stopping Aaron Jones for even portions of the game appear slim. They're counting on Byron Cowart, Zacch Pickens and Chris Williams inside. They're allowing 4.8 yards a run, very nearly what they gave up in 2022 when they finished 27th in yards per carry allowed. Minnesota's biggest problem with running is getting bored with it and then going back to their explosive passing game. Edge Vikings

Special Teams

What's forgotten by some is how the Vikings actually blocked a Cairo Santos field goal on the first kick after Santos had the game-winner blocked against Green Bay. The Bears can't let up here. When he does kick, Santos has missed just twice on field goals that were unblocked and he gets the benefit of kicking indoors. Tory Taylor is closing in on a Bears franchise record for punting distance while owning the rookie record for putting punts inside the 20. Josh Blackwell is injured DeAndre Carter's replacement in the return game and has an injury himself, so they could be looking to others this week. The Vikings are 30th in kick return average so the Bears could be looking to pin them back both on punts and kicks. Edge Bears

Coaching

If last week is an example, Bears players might as well draw up their own game plan on offense. They still haven't solved the early scoring issues. Their defense used to be dominant in the red zone when Matt Eberflus was coaching but they total caved in last week under Eric Washington. The chess match this week is Washington against Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell and on the other side Thomas Brown, in his fifth game calling Bears plays, against Brian Flore's blitzing scheme. These are the two biggest mismatches of the week. Edge Vikings

Intangibles

Let's see, one team has to look for reasons to play hard, has coaches who don't know their future and players who don't know their future and is headed for a top 10 draft pick once again. The other has lost twice and is at home in a dome known for noise facing a rookie QB. To top it all off, the Vikings are going to play wearing new all-white uniforms and helmets. The fans will explode. The only way this would be even in intangibles would be if the Vikings came out wearing T-shirts and shorts. Edge Vikings

Final score: Vikings 37, Bears 16  

There will be a huge positive for the Bears coming out of this one, though, and it can be predicted with 100% certainty: They will have only one more road game left to lose.

Betting Line: Vikings by 7, over/under 43 1/2 (Fan Duel)

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.