Bear Digest

Cold Weather Issues Very Real for Jared Goff at Soldier Field

Scouting the Lions: Detroit's injuries have been devastating with many occurring since Thanksgiving against the Bears, and then there is Jared Goff's problem being cold.

Gene Chamberlain

Kyler Gordon tries to drag down Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs during the 23-20 Lions win on Thanksgiving.
Kyler Gordon tries to drag down Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs during the 23-20 Lions win on Thanksgiving. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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The temperature has been down in Chicago through much of December and this can only be bad news for Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff Sunday at Soldier Field, although the Lions seem to have many other challenges in this game.

It's been called an overrated statistic or a myth by Lions fans and formerly by Rams fans, but the Detroit QB really does not perform well when the temperature drops.

Bears fans first saw this in 2018, the last season they won the NFC North. Goff came in with the Rams and a dominant Bears defense that year ruled the day on Dec. 9, 2018 with a 15-6 win. They picked off Goff four times. He went 20 of 44 for 180 yards for a passer rating of 19.1.

The ironic thing about this was it wasn't even the worst weather Goff had played in that year and he won in that earlier game. The Rams played an Oct. 14 game in Denver and there was a freakish fall cold spell when the temperature hit 25 degrees with 18 degrees wind chill and the Rams won 23-20, although Goff struggled with a pick and a 58.8 passer rating.

Goff seems to have improved somewhat as he's had the chance to play more in such weather but his performance still has been noticeably worse in the cold.

In 12 games with air temperature 39 degrees or colder for his career, Goff is 224 of 394 for 2,485 yards with 11 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a passer rating of 75.53. His yards per attempt is just 6.3. That's quite a bit below his 95.1 career passer rating and 7.5 yards per attempt.

Taking it down a few degrees to freezing wind chill at 32 degrees, he has played 10 times and went 188 of 303 for 2,203 yards with six touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 78.58 passer rating. His team is 4-5-1 in wind chill of 32 or worse and 6-5-1 when the air temperature is 39 or colder.

The forecast for Sunday is temperatures around 30 to freezing.

Last year the first-place Lions came to face the Bears in December at Soldier Field and the Bears shut them out in the second half and won 28-13. Goff went 20 of 35 for 161 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for a passer rating of 54.6.

Of course, all of this talk of Goff playing worse in cold weather doesn't really mention when he does it he is playing on the road, since all the Detroit home games are indoors and the Rams played indoors as well. And most quarterbacks play worse on the road than at home, anyway.

Goff has a 100.4 passer rating at home for his career and 89.7 on the road. But that 89.7 on the road is much lower on the road in the cold.

Perhaps it means even less this week when the quarterback his team goes against hasn't exactly been tested by "The Hawk" coming in off the lake at Soldier Field himself. It hasn't been colder than 47 degrees at game time for Caleb Williams at home yet.

Williams played college football at two warmer weather schools, although he did play high school ball in the Washington DC area. High school football usually is usually over when the coldest weather rolls in, though.

Goff isn't all the Bears have to worry about when Detroit comes to Soldier Field.

Here are the other potential matchup problems the Bears face, but they're greatly softened by not facing David Montgomery and any number of other injured Lions like Alim McNeill and Aidan Hutchinson.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown had to pick up the pace with the Lions losing by multiple scores in the second half last week against Buffalo and had a career day with his bests of 14 catches and 194 yards. Kyle Gordon and the Bears secondary limited St. Brown to five catches for 73 yards in the Thanksgiving Day nightmare. They have usually had decent success with limiting St. Brown. He averages 5.7 catches and 63.6 yards a game against them for seven appearances. His career average is 6.5 catches and 73.7 yards a game.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs broke is 945-yard mark of last year and the 1,000-yard mark and is now at 1,047 and the Lions will lean heavily on him with Montgomery lost to a knee injury. Sione Vaki and Craig Reynolds are options for the Lions now without the thunder part of their thunder-and-lightning backfield attack. Reynolds has experience with six seasons and 132 carries. Vaki is a rookie fourth-rounder from Utah. Both are bigger than Gibbs, who will bring the speed at the Bears defense. They'll also use wide receivers to carry the ball at times.

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T Penei Sewell

The Lions' right tackle has slipped a bit in Pro Football Focus' grading since their last meeting with the Bears, but still ranks fourth among tackles and is No. 2 among run blockers. He handled Montez Sweat last time and seems to be headed for a third Pro Bowl appointment in three years.

C Frank Ragnow

The veteran Lions center is graded third at his position in the league and third blocking the run but he has been graded as a mediocre pass blocker. The Bears haven't had Andrew Billings for a while now and Gervon Dexter is out so protecting the middle against the blocking by Ragnow and the Lions' line will be left with reserves. Ragnow has two sacks allowed and six penalties.

TE Sam LaPorta

LaPorta had been experiencing a down second season as a receiver, as compared to his rookie year, but in the last two games his production has soared. He had five catches for 54 yards against the Packers and then seven for 111 yards against the Bills. This came after the Bears held him to 6 yards on three catches last time, but two of those went for TDs.

WR Jameson Williams

Williams finally has stepped forth with 42 catches this season and hurt the Bears a few times in their first meeting. His great speed is the issue for any secondary. He'll drop some passes and his route running needs polishing but keeping up with him when he gets rolling is difficult for the fastest cornerbacks.

LB Jack Campbell

His open-field hit at Caleb Williams' knee pushed the limits of sportsmanship, even though he definitely had the right to make a hit because the Bears QB wasn't out of bounds yet. Going right at a player's knee who obviously can be pushed out or tackled by being simply wrapped up represents the borderline attitude of Dan Campbell, who prefers to bite knees instead. Campbell is better than such behavior and has shown it with 109 tackles and four pass breakups. Campbell could eventually be a star in this defense, or he can be someone with a reputation for doing things regarded as marginal on the field.

S Kerby Joseph

The former Illini safety is up to seven picks this year, although he's gone dry now for four straight games without going more than one game without one through Week 11. Challenging the Lions' secondary has been easier with more players going out injured but Joseph back in coverage still makes it risky. He had one of his 10 pass breakups in the earlier Bears game.

Edge Za'Darius Smith

There are other Lions players who could rate as problems but Smith is always a problem to the Bears. He was with the Packers and Vikings and had sacks against them. Then he made one for the Lions in the last game.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.