Bear Digest

Did One Caleb Williams Projection Go Too Far to Plus Side?

Analysis: Projections for Caleb Williams' rookie season range almost the full gamut from disappointing to strong but one recent forecast is calling for a season to remember.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams goes through warmups at practice. His rookie numbers have been projected at a high level by SI.com.
Caleb Williams goes through warmups at practice. His rookie numbers have been projected at a high level by SI.com. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
In this story:

Many preseason projections for Bears wide receiver Caleb Williams fall on the gloomy side or conservative end.

Sports Illustrated's Conor Orr has put down numbers a Bears fan could appreciate, although possibly a bit too exaggerated.

Orr sees Williams finishing his first season with 65% completions, 26 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions and 3,727 yards passing. It's only slightly more positive than the projection made by Bears On SI earlier this offseason, with 64.4% completions, 3,690 yards, 24 TDs and nine interceptions.

All of these numbers would put Williams among the best rookie seasons ever but Orr defends this projection with sound logic.

Williams has plenty of targets in the attack that many other rookie quarterbacks who failed have lacked. However, it's his offensive coordinator who has Orr's attention.

"Waldron is a gifted offensive coordinator who, alongside Panthers head coach Dave Canales, led an offensive renaissance in Seattle that segmented quarterback Geno Smith’s strengths and built a playbook around his favorite throws and his strong suits," Orr wrote. "Despite Pete Carroll's penchant for an incredibly balanced run/pass ratio, the Seahawks entrusted Waldron to unleash the team's core of wide receivers."

Orr is pointing out how Waldron's teams flipped to a heavy pass-over-run emphasis from the opposite way. It's basically what the Bears are hoping happens with their offense under Waldron as they attempt to come into the 21st century, seemingly straight from the 19th century.

The key numbers Orr cited are rankings for net yards passing per attempt. Passing yards per attempt long has been regarded as the key number for teams who are serious about winning.

Waldron's three teams finished 14th, 10th and 11th in this regard. In the last three seasons, the Bears have been 24th twice and 19th once in net yards per pass attempt as their offense went nowhere.

BEARS SAFETY LEAVING MONDAY TO WATCH WIFE SIMONE BILES IN OLYMPICS

BEARS OFFENSE SPUTTERS BADLY IN RETURN FOLLOWING OFF DAY

IMMEDIATE END TO STARTING CENTER BATTLE WOULD SUIT BEARS BEST

Those touting Jayden Daniels as a surprise No. 1 QB from this class ahead of Williams will not like Orr's conclusion because he sees Daniels throwing for 500 fewer yards and just over 62% completions.

There is fault with some of Orr's logic. It would be his reliance on Jared Goff's second season as a sort of model. Goff was in the same offense under Sean McVay.

"These numbers are mostly in line with Goff's first season with Sean McVay," Orr writes. "Waldron was on that staff and would have had an active role in handing over the offense to Goff in very small pieces."

Waldron was only the tight ends coach in that offense. A tight ends coach isn't making an impact in handing over the offense to Goff. He's affecting the tight ends.

Still, Waldron's past success creating chunk plays and all the weapons assembled should get Williams started toward the numbers Orr described.

2024 Bears On SI Projection: 361 completions, 560 attempts, 3,690 yards, 6.6 yards per attempt, 64.4% completions, 24 TDs, 9 INTs, 90.86 rating; 63 rushes, 377 yards, 5.9 yards per attempt, 5 TDs.

Whether those numbers are achieved in a winning season is the great mystery.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.