Bear Digest

DJ Moore's 2024 Season Projection for Fantasy Football

Analysis: The Bears wide receiver has forces driving down his total this year but there are also some pushing it back to the same level as in 2023.

Gene Chamberlain

DJ Moore shrugs off Alex Anzalone after a reception in a win over Detroit last year at Soldier Field.
DJ Moore shrugs off Alex Anzalone after a reception in a win over Detroit last year at Soldier Field. / Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
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Projecting fantasy football seasons for any offensive player on the Bears roster this season comes off as tricky guesswork at best.

For one, it's a new offensive coordinator bringing in his new system. It's also an offense with new weapons added among receivers.

The main reason, though, is the quarterback. Caleb Williams will dictate what happens in fantasy football for everyone on the offensive side.

No player's statistics look more likely to be affected at a greater rate than wide receiver DJ Moore.

"We all have to learn a new offense right now," Moore said. "With him, you just have to know that the growing pains are going to be there. For a rookie—I think he's 22? 23?—so you know you've got a lot to learn and a lot to accomplish in such a short amount of time."

Moore had a career year in yardage (1,364), catches (96) and touchdowns (8), making him a great contributor for fantasy football owners. Piling up numbers made sense considering he was a the best receiver for a team that trailed much of the time, at least early in the year. They had no other real threat at wide receiver so it had to be Moore. Darnell Mooney made only 31 catches and he had the second-highest wide receiver total. He had even fewer catches than backup running back Roschon Johnson (34).

Justin Fields was throwing it to Moore or trying to find Cole Kmet, and then he would run it.

So a natural decline in numbers seems inevitable for Moore. It's best not to get carried away with that, however.

Moore got out of Carolina and not only piled up big numbers, but his success rate and catch percentage both were career highs.  These weren't the result of a high volume of passes thrown his way but of his own efficiency.

Success rate is gaining 40% of the yardage required to move the sticks on first down, 60% of the distance needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth downs. He came away at 59.6% and his own best of 70.6% for catches/target.

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He did this taking passes in from a quarterback who never went over 2,600 yards for any season in his career.

No one needs to invite Williams to throw the ball. He'll do it. This wasn't always true with the last Bears quarterback.

The added receivers could take away targets from Williams but again this is a something no one should stress. There will be enough footballs to go around for their targets.

Moore has already shown he can play well in a receiver corps with other options available to the passer. He was in an offense with Christian McCaffrey, Greg Olsen and Curtis Samuel in 2019, his second season, and still led the team with 87 catches for 1,175 yards. In his next season, the receiver group was even better with McCaffrey, Samuel and Robbie Chosen, the pass catcher formerly known as Robbie Anderson. They came within 149 yards by Samuel of having three 1,000-yard wide receivers. Moore still led in receiving yards with 66 catches for 1,193 yards.

Moore finds a way to be productive regardless of the situation and having Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze competing alongside for catches shouldn't be a problem. Nor should being in a new offense. He just did it in 2023 after coming over from Carolina, and had no issues.

Plus, new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has had experience calling plays in an attack with three wide receiver targets and others in the backfield and at tight end. He did it last year with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at wide receiver.

Last year Moore exceeded BearDigest fantasy projections by 128 yards and 22 receptions and one touchdown.

If there is any drop off for Moore, it would appear the factors weighing against it can bring almost as much to bear as those favoring it.

The end result should be another season when the trade Ryan Poles made in 2023 before the draft to acquire Moore looks like he picked the Panthers' pockets.

DJ Moore at a Glance

Vitals: 6-foot, 210 pounds, seventh season.

Career: 460 receptions on 752 targets, 6,565 yards, 29 TDs, 14.2 yards per catch, 61.2 catch percentage.   

2023: 96 receptions on 136 targets, 1364 yards, 8 TDs, 14.2 yards per catch, 70.6 catch percentage.

Fantasy Scoring: Last year Moore brought in 302.5 points on a DraftKings scoring system, 238.5 on DraftKings and 190.5 on a standard fantasy scoring system.

2024 Bears On SI Projection: 82 receptions, 1,226 yards, 129 targets, 14.9 yards per catch, 7 TDs, 63.6% catch rate.

Michael Fabiano's SI Fantasy Ranking: No. 19 among all wide receivers.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

Published
Gene Chamberlain

GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.