Everything That Can Still Go Wrong with Bears Plan

The Bears are plowing ahead into the Caleb Williams era with great optimism but plenty can still go wrong to derail everything they've planned.

Andrew Billings and Justin Jones shut down the run against Minnesota. Jones is gone and run defense was a Bears defensive key to last year's resurgence by the Bears defense. / Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

The positive way the last Bears season ended, feeble attempt in Green Bay aside, has painted an up arrow for their 2024 fortunes.

NFL Media's Adam Schein has called the Bears the Cinderella team for 2024 and now Kirk Herbstreit is telling everyone to watch out for the Bears.

"When they made that trade and they got a lot better on the defensive side, when Sweat came over and the secondary got healthy, I'm telling you everybody expected Eberflus to get let go middle of the year," Herbstreit said on ESPN's The Pat McAfee Show. "The guy had an energy about him. His team responds to him.

"You better get on the Bears right now. You better get on the Bears."

They traded away their quarterback but the trend toward success has been established.

At the risk of looking like Wile E. Coyote drawing up plans with Acme dynamite before it all explodes in his face, the Bears move ahead all smiles.

It's still very early in the offseason, the draft is yet to come and also the later portion of free agency. They don't even have a schedule yet.

The fuse on the dynamite still might be the candle the Bears just thought they lit in the dark room.

There is plenty that can still go wrong for the Bears before the regular season and then far more after it starts. We won't even get into injuries and depth.

Here's what there is to worry about for those who like to worry.

Watch out for that trap door to the bottomless pit. It's a doozy.

1. Caleb Williams Is Like Most Rookie QBs

In the last decade 56 rookie QBs threw at least 100 passes and of them only 22 had passer ratings higher than 84.5.

So numbers say rookies are pretty mediocre.

Can Williams buck the odds? He will be the first pick of the draft and they should be better.
Of the 27 quarterbacks chosen first overall since the NFL-AFL merger, 13 threw more touchdown passes than interceptions as rookies, 12 threw more interceptions and two threw the same number.

Flip a coin.

It's what they go on to become that counts.

The C.J. Strouds and Andrew Lucks, who play well and lead a team into the playoffs immediately, are extremely rare.

If he's only average they could still have a successful season based on their defense but even average isn't something anyone can count on with rookies.

2. Williams Isn't In College Any More

Everyone from Dan Orlovsky to Chase Daniel constantly remind how Williams makes many of his big plays on extended passes and might not even get many of those plays off against defensive players who are bigger, faster and stronger in the NFL.

It's been suggested he might only get 25% of those passes off. It's not the bigger plays the Bears need from their QB but more average plays. Fields produced big passing plays too, but he had trouble with the little plays.

Maybe if will be less than 25%.

3. The Offensive Line Really Was That Bad

Fields got sacked at rates of 10.6%, 14.7% and 11.8% the last three years, by far the league's highest rate over his three seasons. The theory put out about the Bears line is they weren't really that bad and Fields held the ball too long.

What about the sacks he avoided with his fast running, though?

Maybe the line really was as bad at pass blocking as the sack percentages say, and he kept it from being worse with his scrambling.

It didn't seem that way when Tyson Bagent was behind the same line and had the league's low rate for sacks. If it turns out they really were that bad and Williams is definitely not as fast as Fields, then it could be a sack-filled season for the rookie.

4. Zero at 3-Technique

They went through the offseason so far without adding an accomplished 3-technique defensive tackle and are counting on second-year player Gervon Dexter, who had a Pro Football Focus run defense grade among the league's worst.

It's possible they might go through the draft without taking one, as they only have four picks. What if they don't really have an answer at this position?

The 3-technique is vital in this scheme to stopping the run. Improving from next to last to No. 1 against the run was the triggering point for an overall improved defense last year. It let them rush the passer and force turnovers. Decrease the run defense's effectiveness with a weaker 3-technique and the entire defense crumbles both against the run and the pass.

5. Insufficient Edge Help

Their sack total and pressures went up when Montez Sweat came to town but they still finished next to last in sacks. Because they didn't sign a viable pass rusher in free agency, they're going to count on a rookie to upgrade the other edge position. Rookie edge rushers normally take two years to contribute. Last year only three made more than 4.5 sacks.

Without the pressure, Sweat can be ganged up on by offensive lines much like Khalil Mack was. The sack totals don't go up and it leaves their secondary exposed. This might not ruin the defense but definitely would keep them from improving.

6. Run Game Exposed

Running game production was boosted by Fields' scrambling. So was the passing game boosted by his scrambling.

Without the threat of Fields on planned running plays, it will be easier for defenses to focus in on backs as ball carriers. The running game will naturally take a step back in yards per carry. There will be fewer first downs with less yardage on first and second downs. The passing game then gets the burden of more pressure.

And it's going to be a rookie passer.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven