Bear Digest

Five positive Caleb Williams numbers Ben Johnson can build on

The numbers for Caleb Williams overall reflected an upward, positive trend in his rookie year despite inconsistencies and here are the defining ones.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams celebrates a big completion in the Bears' 6-3 loss to Seattle at Soldier Field.
Caleb Williams celebrates a big completion in the Bears' 6-3 loss to Seattle at Soldier Field. / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images
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Bears coach Ben Johnson was asked at his opening press conference about the impact of Caleb Williams' presence on his decision to take the Chicago job.

"Having a quarterback helps," Johnson quipped.

Through much of last season, many analytics websites and numbers geeks looked at Williams and shook their heads. They wouldn't have agreed Johnson had a quarterback.

There were plenty of poor numbers, especially early. Then Williams began surging, and it happened against some of the best competition the Bears faced—mainly their divisional opponents.

The season Williams had was summed up well by someone who had been coaching an opponent last season.

"He is a phenomenal talent that had—as many quarterbacks do—an up-and-down rookie year," Johnson said.

There are big plans for Williams because of what is viewed as raw talent.

"Where I see my role is as a supporter of him," Johnson said. "This offense will be calibrated with him in mind."

Here is what they have to build on, the five best number Williams had last year that make it apparent he isn't as bad as the 28th ranking NFL.com gave him this week, or the 23rd ranking given to him by Henry McKenna of Fox Sports this week.

"Can we all just forget about 2024?" McKenna wrote. "I genuinely think that if Williams can do that, he'll be better off. He got worse. And he needs to start over."

That's not entirely true as there were positives.

Here are the five best numbers by Williams indicating he can be what Johnson anticipates.

4,443

That's the intended air yards by Williams on throws. He ranked third in the NFL according to Stathead/Pro Football Reference.

The only QBs who had higher averaged intended air yards were Sam Darnold and Joe Burrow.

However, Williams threw only six interceptions with all of that average intended air yards and Burrow had nine while Darnold had 12.

When Williams was taking hits for being "too safe" with the ball to avoid interceptions, the criticism couldn't have been more incorrect.

He just needs to hit more of those longer throws.

24

This is a Pro Football Focus statistic. It's big-time throws. This is a highly subjective number but it's been a PFF standard for years and in that regard they're very consistent with it.

Williams' 24 big-time throws were the 12th most in the league and the same number Patrick Mahomes had, but he did it in his rookie year.

It was one more than Bo Nix had.

It was four more than Jayden Daniels had.

1.1

This was Williams' interception percentage for his six interceptions.

It's a phenomenal rate, especially for a rookie.

Considering the big-time throw rate and also the intended air yards, it's completely wild.

Again, if they can maintain his intended air yards, keep his big-time throws up and then add a better completion percentage, Williams is headed to the top of the charts.

1,866

This as the yards after the catch by Bears receivers after catching Williams' throws. It wasn't elite but did place Williams at 11th among all quarterbacks for YAC.

The significance of this figure is the Bears haven't had more than this from a passer since 2014.

Williams needs to be more accurate and on time with shorter passes but to get to 1,866 yards after the catch in this offense, with the coaching he received was a complete positive.

95.3

Williams' passer rating for fourth quarters was 95.3. While he still needs to improve there, this is the highest by a Bears QB in fourth quarters since Mitchell Trubisky was at 95.7 in their division title year of 2018, his second year in the league.

Trubisky's rookie fourth-quarter passer rating was 64.4 and he never got over the 95.7 level in any other season.

Justin Fields never posted good fourth-quarter passer ratings. His were 53.4 in 2023, 61.7 in 2022 and 69.4 in his rookie year.

Williams just needs more practice now at doing this, and at protecting leads.

He got a good start toward showing he can handle pressure in the fourth quarter of the season finale with Green Bay.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.