Best Bears Fallbacks When Russell Wilson Talk Dies

Analysis: Too many reasons exist to think the Russell Wilson trade ever comes off, and the Bears have to be able to pivot to one of many remaining options in QB hunt

Bears GM Ryan Pace called finding his team's quarterback a matter of being ready for anything.

"I really think as a staff we've got to be able to pivot and adjust along the way to some things that we might not expect," Pace said.

The removal of Cam Newton from the potential quarterback pool available to the Bears creates no crisis, but does leave the Bears fewer directions to pivot if their pursuit of either Russell Wilson or even Deshaun Watson would fail.

The quarterback game this offseason is all about options and finding one suitable. Right now their options can be summed up in three categories: prime targets, reclamation projects and fallback plans.

Nick Foles does not count as a fallback. He's already there and going to be involved regardless, either as starter or backup. The only way he won't be involved is if they trade him, and this would seem unlikely unless they've already been blessed with one of their top options.

It's likely the Bears never really considered Newton seriously, but New England sure did. The Patriots gave $16 million to a 32-year-old quarterback who put up 10 interceptions and eight touchdowns.

The Bears could have had Newton last year for the same amount New England has paid with no trade involved. How often do the Patriots make personnel mistakes compared to how often the Bears do?

Here's what it leaves on the table, to use a phrase Matt Nagy and Pace love:

Prime Targets

1. Russell Wilson

Jarrett Payton, son of the great Bears running back, is in broadcasting in Chicago and reported there is no trade coming according to a source. At least it's this way at the moment, but things could change. 

A Thursday report by Colin Cowherd of Fox Sports saying the Bears are trying to "create a move that is so good Seattle can't say no," is basically rehash of earlier rumor saying they were going "all in" this time or were throwing "a boatload of picks" at them. There was no real addition of exact details on a pick beyond what earlier had been said.

Still, getting Wilson must stay priority No. 1 because of his desire to come to Chicago, and the lack of competition from the other three cities named by Wilson as his top destinations. 

Just talked to someone close to the Russell Wilson situation and they told me, they don’t think he’s leaving SEA. BUT IF there’s a Russ trade to CHI, the #Bears would have to give SEA whatever they want. I say all that to say...this pic below is a possibility. (Just not in #3) pic.twitter.com/s7d30IjKnb

— Jarrett Payton (@paytonsun) March 11, 2021

At least it's seemed there is no competition.

Dallas has its QB, the Raiders say they're happy with Derek Carr. 

The Saints can be a problem for the Bears now. They've reduced their cap shortage from the $70 million range to $10.9 million with several roster moves, according to Spotrac.com. They'll get into better shape when they can take Drew Brees' salary off the books, if he retires. They're were actually $6.2 million closer to the break-even point with the salary cap than the Bears were following the franchise tag application with Allen Robinson, and that deficit widened after the signings of Pat O'Donnell and Cairo Santos..

There is every reason to think the Bears will be squeezed out in the end if Wilson is traded. The Saints could offer the prospect of working with proven winner and offensive genius Sean Payton.

Also, other teams not on the list could pursue Wilson more heavily if they see a legitimate opportunity. If Denver wanted to get serious, it has more to offer to the Seahawks than the Bears. If the Broncos struck a deal, it's hard to imagine both Seattle and Denver would have a difficult time convincing Wilson it's in his best interest to go to a desirable location like Denver. The same could be said of several other places, like Miami or New York.

2. Deshaun Watson

It's becoming more likely Watson gets dealt after comments made by new coach David Culley, despite the fact he also said, "he's ours." The other comments sound like comments the Rams made about Jared Goff before their big QB deal for Matthew Stafford. The Bears are no more likely to bring in Watson than before because of the large number of teams with better draft picks to trade than they possess. Watson to the Bears is all but an impossibility. In fact, this could become the biggest problem for the Bears if the Seahawks ever started looking at trades for Wilson from all teams and not just those on the quarterback's list.

Reclamation Projects

Three quarterbacks could resurrect their careers at this point by trade or free agency.

Raiders backup Marcus Mariota, Saints backup Jameis Winston and Jets starter Sam Darnold are the top candidates as QBs who didn't live up to expectations but have shown enough to possibly cause Pace to pursue them. Pace was with the Saints when they brought Brees in from San Diego and Matt Nagy helped resurrect Alex Smith's career and they know how this can work.

Although Winston would be the easiest acquisition as a free agent, the Saints reportedly covet him barring the acquisition of some other quarterback—like Wilson. The Bears might have a tougher time bringing him to Chicago than making a deal to acquire Mariota or Darnold, who are not free agents.

Getting Mariota would be both an embarrassment and more difficult. The Bears could have had him last year on a small free agent deal and didn't pursue him. They'd now have to cough up a draft pick, and also restructure his contract the way they did with Foles last year in that trade.

Mariota has a contract which pays him $10.7 million but could be $20 million in incentives if he becomes starter. That deal exists unless the Raiders cut him.

The only sticking points with Darnold are whether his talent is sufficient as well the level of trade compensation. How could the Jets demand a first-round pick from anyone for Darnold after Carson Wentz achieved at a much higher level and Philadelphia received only a second- and third-rounder for him?

There are a few other options in free agency available, like Tyrod Taylor or Jacoby Brissett. These three are still young, though, and would be actual reclamation projects. Taylor, Brissett and others have really had opportunities to display their talent properly that both Darnold lacked. Both Mariota and Winston showed much higher ceilings than any of the others in the retread list. 

The Fallback

No. 1 Alex Smith

This is such an obvious one it's almost surprising the Bears haven't simply done it and moved on toward the draft. The dangling carrot from a stick that is Wilson keeps their immediate focus, but Smith and Foles together would be a safe play with a drafted quarterback learning behind them.

The concern is always about the mandate to win a playoff game handed down by Bears ownership, and how a rookie alone doesn't help in this regard. But adding another successful veteran could address this. Smith helped Washington finish 5-1 and win its division, and he might have even completed the comeback by beating Tampa Bay in the playoffs but couldn't play because of a calf injury. Nagy wouldn't mind this option because of all the respect he has for Smith.

Pace might be the one to convince, since it seems his job is the one dangling a little more off the cliff's edge by a toe or two.

2. Mitchell Trubisky

This isn't an option, really. Nagy and Pace might have a hard sell now telling people Smith is their guy to go along with Foles and a rookie. After pursuing Wilson and Wentz and with other possible options out there, returning to Trubisky would cause a fan backlash like this franchise has not seen in the past.

About the only way they'd face a bigger public firestorm would be to announce they brought Jay Cutler out of retirement on another seven-year, $126.7 million deal or just signed Mike Glennon again.

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